Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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wxman57
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#481 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:11 am

Comparing the 12Z GFS to last night's 00Z run, the precip projected across Houston is lighter and ends earlier. The 12Z GFS has almost all the precip falling between noon and 6pm Friday, with nothing after 6pm Friday. The 00Z run had precip continuing for 2-3 hours after 6pm. The bullseye of heavy precip has shifted east on this newest run, extending from downtown Houston northeastward rather than northwest of downtown.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#482 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:14 am

I see Jeff lurking. Perhaps he has some thoughts as well. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#483 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:24 am

Afternoon package should be interesting.

Dallas NWS

FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AND ON FRIDAY.



Time for me to go. Here's to hoping I have a good 18z run to come back too. :froze: since there's no crossing fingers picture.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#484 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:28 am

iorange55 wrote:Afternoon package should be interesting.

Dallas NWS

FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING AND ON FRIDAY.


Time for me to go. Here's to hoping I have a good 18z run to come back too. :froze: since there's no crossing fingers picture.


Never mind, thought you were discussing Friday's event.
Last edited by wxman57 on Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#485 Postby joshskeety » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:36 am

Just a quick update..

Getting some sleet reports just west of us which means the colder air is beginning to move closer to us. However, air temps have not budged much.. Temp here in Abilene is still 39.8 degrees and is variable.. NAM says that the 0 line will be right on us by noon.. GFS says the same, but produces a tad more moisture. That is an hour and a half away, so if this is the case we should begin to see temps steadily falling within the next hour or two.. If they do not budge then it won't matter anyway because no matter if its freezing at 5000 feet, the chances for snow or little to none.

Considering we are at 2000 feet elevation, the temp has to at least get below 37 degrees to begin the changeover.. Evap cooling has been very very slow because the moisture we are getting at the moment is from the warm air ahead of the ULL..

Josh
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#486 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:12 pm

Hey guys been sitting around (no work) due to the 44 degrees and cold steady rain we are having today, just lovely. Anyway been reading your posts about the potential storm and what a surprise it is to read about. Does any care to elaborate on the system heading east in my direction? Colder temps and any chance of winter weather around here? Have not seen anything mentioned.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#487 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:19 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Hey guys been sitting around (no work) due to the 44 degrees and cold steady rain we are having today, just lovely. Anyway been reading your posts about the potential storm and what a surprise it is to read about. Does any care to elaborate on the system heading east in my direction? Colder temps and any chance of winter weather around here? Have not seen anything mentioned.


T. Scott Barry is met in Nawlins, and he sent an email about some possible wintry precip for SELA. You guys near BR should be in the mix of what he's talking about.

Late this week and going into this weekend, on Friday night the 4th/5th, there are a couple, (2), forecast models that are indicating a chance for some wintery precipitation in Southeast Louisiana. (How would you like that?)

This wintery precipitation, IF this materializes, and continues to be advertised as the 00Z 12/1/2009 GFS shows, will probably come in the form of either sleet or snow, or both, in my estimation, for the southshore. The critical thicknesses are all in the Southeast Louisiana region for late Friday night the 4th & early Saturday morning the 5th. However, the 540 thickness is draped over the northshore parishes of SE Louisiana, late Friday night, on the 102 hr forecast. The 540 thickness line doesn't make it to New Orleans until after the moisture has left, on Saturday morning, daybreak. But you can still get sleet (ice pellets) with a 546 thickness and 0 deg C 850 mb temp. The 1000 - 850 mb & 1000 - 700 mb critical thickness thresholds are upon Lake Pontchartrain late Friday night, too. I won't rule-out any snow flurries at this point since all the thickness lines are close and in the Southeast Louisiana region for late Friday night.

Currently a 1/4" liquid-equivalent is being forecast very late Friday night after midnight up to 6 AM Saturday morning, by your GFS 00Z 12/1/2009 model run. NGP shows between 0.08" to 0.16" for that same time, with a very similar upper air solution of 540 thickness line in SE Louisiana and 850 mb freezing line, as well. So we'll see how this goes. I'll write again on this subject later in the week, if it looks promising. Otherwise, if not, then no more attention will be drawn to this subject matter.
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#488 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:34 pm

Thanks, looks like a wait and see what happens. As of now the forecast for friday is for showers and highs in mid 50's lows lower 30's and saturday partly cloudy highs lower 40's lows upper 20's. Sunday is a repeat of friday.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#489 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:50 pm

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#490 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:52 pm



I think I am starting to understand these maps. Is that showing us (NTX) below 32 with precip? :P
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#491 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:59 pm

Parts of south\southeast Tx as well
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#492 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:01 pm

Here is the new 12Z GFS Parallel for hours 78- 84...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_078l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_084l.gif

Interesting to see the excitement build as guidance trends toward something really happening. :P
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#493 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:09 pm

Tonight...Rain. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow likely in the morning. No snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

For the Denton area.....
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#494 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:11 pm

HGX Update concerning Friday...

IT SEEMS THAT YESTERDAY`S 12Z GFS RUN PICKED UP ON A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IT HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY RESOLVED. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER THE PAC NW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRI AS A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO IT ON THU. TODAY`S 12Z
GFS CONTINUES THIS TREND AS DOES THE 12Z NAM. THIS BRINGS MORE
CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY FRI.
THE EVENT MAY BE 4 DAYS OUT BUT WILL DO THE BEST TO HASH OUT
DETAILS OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ANY HEAVIER PRECIP
BANDS. THE NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL DETAIL OUR LATEST
THINKING BUT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ALSO FEATURE AN SPS TO OUTLINE WINTER
PRECIP THREATS/HAZARDS AND TIMING OF THE EVENT FOR AREAS OF SE TX.
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#495 Postby joshskeety » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:21 pm

Quick update.. Abilene..

Well, its 18z and still no sign of the 850mb 0 line being close to us.. The temp has dropped, but barely. Its now 38.2 degrees and still pretty heavy rain in the area.. Im getting absolutely no updates west of us so I have no idea if anything is transitioning..

I believe that our best chance for snow will be late tonight into tomorrow morning when the ULL pulls east of the ABI area and we begin to get the northern winds, the drying of the atmosphere and the wrap around moisture.. At this point, there is just not much to suggest this storm is going to be able to produce any wintery precipitation from the upflow of the low..

Also, I believe those south of San Angelo have a huge chance to get the deformation zone and dry slot.. That includes anyone east of that direct track, which if I look at the weather models includes any south of Waco as well in Texas...

I do think that betwwen 12z and 15z tomorrow there could be some flakes in the DFW area, depending if the sfc temps can hold down below 34-35 degrees.. No accums though..
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#496 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:22 pm

IT JUST SLEETED AT MY HOUSE A COUPLE MINUTES AGO! wtf? its in the forties right now
It didnt last long, just a couple minutes, but if it can sleet now, it can also later when its colder...right?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#497 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:24 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:IT JUST SLEETED AT MY HOUSE A COUPLE MINUTES AGO! wtf? its in the forties right now
It didnt last long, just a couple minutes, but if it can sleet now, it can also later when its colder...right?


My coworker here in Denton said on the way in about 20 min ago it sleeted and "hailed" for a little bit. She could see and hear it hitting her windsheild.
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#498 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:29 pm

WFAA has that "Winterize" radar. It didn't show the sleet in Denton, so it's probably not perfect. But could be worth watching the Regional radar for changeovers to the West.

http://z.wfaa.com/weather/myownradar/df ... radar.html
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#499 Postby msstateguy83 » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:36 pm

light to mod sleet also falling here at my home just sw of wichita falls
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#500 Postby joshskeety » Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:36 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:IT JUST SLEETED AT MY HOUSE A COUPLE MINUTES AGO! wtf? its in the forties right now
It didnt last long, just a couple minutes, but if it can sleet now, it can also later when its colder...right?



Ummmmm.. No, not really and let me explain why..

Here in Abilene when the precip started, my car with being hit by ice pellots as well.. Over night there was evap cooling in the upper atmospheres, so when the precip started it hit that pocket of cold air and had enough to produce an onslaught of ice..

BUT..

Temps are in the 40's.. And look where that moisture is coming from.. That's right, the south, because we are on the front side of an ULL, which means all moisture is going to be warmer.. The place to be is on the backside of the low (where El Paso/Roswell, NM) is because that moisture is wrapping around the low and hitting the cooler, dryer air.. Remember, low pressure's move counter clockwise.. So on the front side of a low you will have more moist, warmer air, on the other side of the low (called the backside) you have the colder air.. This is why East coasterners live for winter because they stay up all night long hoping a low will form off the atlantic because they get cold air with lots of moisture..
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