Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

00Z GFS still liking some Gulfcoast snow!

[Ivanhater]

Gulfcoast seeing snow again on the 12z

[jcool]

Ivanhater, Thanks for posting those models. Its nice to even see a possibility of snow. We missed getting any snow the last several times the gulf coast got some. j

[LaBreeze]

If any frozen precip does occur, will it be more into the coast of Texas area or more from Louisiana eastward? Just wondering what the models are showing.

[vbhoutex]

If any frozen precip does occur, will it be more into the coast of Texas area or more from Louisiana eastward? Just wondering what the models are showing.

At the moment models are showing snow beginning in TX and moving E to ENE from that point with the possibility of snow along much of the Gulf Coast to the Al/FL line or a little further East. As we all on the Gulf Coast know a lot of factors have to be just right for snow in our area, but models are showing some at this time for the Friday-Saturday time frame.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks vbhoutex. I'm planning on driving from south of Lafayette, LA to Lake Charles, LA on Friday afternoon and was wondering what to "possibly" expect.

[Dean4Storms]

Would love to see some white stuff falling out of the sky but I know my chances down here are very small!!

[SunnyThoughts]

Is the new GFS out? Does it still show a chance for a little whitestuff along the gulf coast? Just wondering how to plan my weekend.

[Brent]

I'm less impressed now. Temperatures look warmer. But there's plenty of time to change. Right now I'd just say flurries possible and leave it at that. It's very possible no one will see snow and it's also possible there could be a big snowstorm, I just dunno.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks for the reply Brent. I"d be happy with just a few flakes. I know how hard those are to come by living on the Gulf coast.

[Stormcenter]

Oh well here we go.... the snow watch begins.
The excerpt below is from the NWS out of N.O., LA
morning discussion.

LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERTAINS TO WINTRY
PRECIP. GFS HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF STILL HAS
NOT COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION BUT MODELS DO AGREE THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT BTR AND MCB SHOW SATURATION IN THE -10
TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL AS COLUMN TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
FROM AROUND 1500KFT AND UPWARDS AFTER 06Z SAT. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING
WOULD PRODUCE STRICTLY SNOW. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
-SN TO THE FORECAST FROM BTR TO POPLARVILLE AND NORTHWARD. LATEST
MEX CAME IN AT 70PCT AND PREVIOUS RUN HAD MID 40S. B/C OF SUCH A BIG
CHANGE...DECIDED TO STAY ON THE LOW SIDED OF GUIDANCE AT 40PCT WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS EVENT. LAST YEAR/S SNOW ON DEC 11TH WAS THE EARLIEST ON
RECORD...SO CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW
DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. AS SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE MODERATE TEMPS
AND INCREASING MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE.

[Brent]

Friday Night: A slight chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 46.

THICKNESS VALUES SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL COOL
DOWN ENOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
BECOME ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...WITH A MIXTURE AS FAR
SOUTH AS MONTGOMERY AND AUBURN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LIKELY FALL MUCH BELOW 32
DEGREES...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE-
INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EAST
ALABAMA.

[SunnyThoughts]

Good luck Brent! I have a feeling Im going to be left out in the cold again, regarding snow. I love seeing the possibility of it so far south though. Maybe a few flakes here in Pensacola....seriously, is that TOO much to ask for? hahaha

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If anyone cares to elaborate feel free. I have a feeling this could be more and more like the event we experienced last year down here. A day or two before it happened the nws and local mets finally starting saying mix, then light accum, then an inch, and so on. We ended up with three inches on the ground at my house.
As of this morning word is we could see an inch friday night saturday morning. Cold air seems not to be the issue its how much moisture. They are waiting on more model runs to see if another low will in fact form in the gulf and where it moves and of course how strong. IF it does and stays further south than the one yesterday we could easily see more snow than forecast. Just in wait and see what happens mode. Going to be interesting to say the least.

[Brent]

Good luck Brent! I have a feeling Im going to be left out in the cold again, regarding snow. I love seeing the possibility of it so far south though. Maybe a few flakes here in Pensacola....seriously, is that TOO much to ask for? hahaha

I wouldn't give up yet. There is a chance, nothing is set in stone yet.

I'm only an hour from the highest mountain in the state, if it does snow up there(much more likely than down here) I'll be there early Saturday.

[Ivanhater]

This is going to be VERY close. If not snow, I would not be surprised if there was some sleet involved for the Gulfcoast.

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

Showing an 80% chance of precip for Friday night!

AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR FREEZING...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF A
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. WE HAVE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST
GRIDDED WEATHER FORECASTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM RICHTON MISSISSIPPI TO CHATOM...MONROEVILLE...TO
BRANTLEY ALABAMA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IT IS
STILL EARLY TO GET OVERLY SPECIFIC IN THIS DEPARTMENT. LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS POP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HAS COME IN WITH CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS (~80%) FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER ENTIRE AREA. KIND OF ROBUST FOR
THREE DAYS OUT...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOWER ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR POP
THEN. COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND OUT OF THE
LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

[Ivanhater]

WOW..12Z NAM!

[Brent]

WOW..12Z NAM!

WOW...

[MississippiHurricane]

AFD from WFO JAN 4am:

LONG TERM...WHAT I HAD FEARED LAST NIGHT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
POSSIBILITY AS THE OUTLYING MODEL...WHICH WAS DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA...IS NOT THE OUTLIER ANYMORE. THE GFS...IS NOW LEADING THE
WAY AND HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE SREF AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM AND EURO. 8 OF 12 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AND SNOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF ARE RANGING FROM 40-60%. SUCH SUPPORT
HAS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY AND THE RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE FRI NIGHT FORECAST WRT POPS AND PRECIP TYPE BECOMING AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW.

ONE MAY BE ASKING...WHAT HAS CHANGED TO NOW INCLUDE THIS INTO THE
FORECAST? MAINLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER SUPPORT FROM MORE
MODELS. FORECAST LEADING INTO FRI/FRI NIGHT HAS GENERALLY ALWAYS
PORTRAYED SOME SORT OF S/W MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAY
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE TREND LAST NIGHT WAS FOR THE S/W TO BE
STRONGER. WITH THAT...THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUID WAS
GENERALLY DRY AND ONLY HAD CLOUDS WITH THAT TROUGH PASSAGE. THE GFS
WAS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING SNOW ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SINCE LAST NIGHT...MUCH MORE SUPPORT HAS COME IN
FROM VARIOUS GUID AND BASICALLY THERE HAS BEEN A 180 SWITCH AND NOT
THE OUTLYING SOLUTION IS THE DRIER VERSION.

AS FOR SOME OF THE DETAILS...THE S/W IN QUESTION WILL BE RATHER
POTENT AND PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
HELPING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ACROSS THE N GULF. IT WILL BE THIS SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL GIVE THE S/W THE MOISTURE TAP TO DEVELOP
PRECIP ABOVE THE COLD AIRMASS. I WILL SAY...THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS SOME 60-72 HRS OUT AND
ANYTIME WE ARE DEALING WITH WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR AREA...THINGS OFTEN
CHANGE. THE GENERAL SETUP FOR THIS WINTRY POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT IS
QUITE FAVORABLE AS WE WILL SEE CAA ONGOING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SFC PRESSURES RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE B/C IT
PROVIDES MOISTURE. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WILL THE COLDER AIR
MOVING SOUTHWARD BE TOO DRY AND EVAPORATE ALL OF THE FALLING PRECIP.
THAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL NOT BE VERY COLD AND HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER THICKENS FASTER AND VIRGA DEVELOPS
EARLIER THE EVAP COOLING PROCESS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND MORE
NEAR 40 DEGREES. WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WE
WILL NEED OTHER MEANS TO GENERATE SNOW. THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM AS DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE STRONG S/W WILL PROVIDE THAT AS
STRONG ASCENT WILL GENERATE PRECIP ALOFT WHICH WILL EVAPORATE AND
COOL ANY LAYER THAT IS ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO...THIS ALL LOOKS TO COME
TOGETHER FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL
MAKE IT EASIER TO DROP TEMPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR PRECIP TO BECOME
LIGHT SNOW. IT APPEARS AS MOISTURE VALUES...VERTICAL MOTION AND
DURATION WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1/4 INCH TO
POSSIBLY 1 INCH. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH TEMPS 31-34
DEGREES...SIMILAR TO PREV SNOW EVENTS OVER THE PAST TWO WINTER
SEASONS.



Forecast:A slight chance of rain before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 9pm and midnight, then snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%


w00T!