Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Any ideas on what could possibly be expected in the Beaumont and Orange, TX to Lake Charles, LA corridor and when?

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

Lots of disagreement in the models, Greg. I see the GFS is forecasting close to an inch of accumulated snow over there in the Beaumont area, while the NAM says just a trace. Quite a bit of moisture just to our south over the Gulf. The NAM tends to underestimate moisture in these situations. But the event is still 3 days away so lots of uncertainty.

Yeah...and the Euro is much drier than the U.S models. My rule of thumb is to not forecast snow until it's about 20 miles away!

[southerngale]

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

I thought the GFS and NAM showed enough moisture to allow for some accumulation, IF they verified. Are you just not buying them or is there something else I'm missing? And I do realize this is 3 days out and a lot can happen between now and then.

You're right, it is 3 days out so things could change. I'm leaning more toward the Euro which is much drier. We'll see if the Euro becomes wetter in the 00z run. I will grant you the 00Z GFS is rather wet and could provide for accumulations Friday evening. Still plenty of time to refine the forecast.

Thanks for the reply. Keep us posted.

[southerngale]

I would expect nothing more than a few pellets of sleet or flakes late Friday evening until around daybreak Saturday. No accumulations. This system appears to be too dry for anything more.

Lots of disagreement in the models, Greg. I see the GFS is forecasting close to an inch of accumulated snow over there in the Beaumont area, while the NAM says just a trace. Quite a bit of moisture just to our south over the Gulf. The NAM tends to underestimate moisture in these situations. But the event is still 3 days away so lots of uncertainty.

Yeah...and the Euro is much drier than the U.S models. My rule of thumb is to not forecast snow until it's about 20 miles away!

Good plan.

[wxman57]

... My rule of thumb is to not forecast snow until it's about 20 miles away!

Sometimes that's even difficult in these parts.

[joshskeety]

Snow being reported now in Abilene on the North side of town.. Still about an hour away before the main moisture get into ABI though..

[goCoogs]

KPRC Houston just had a high of 39 on Friday and 29 Friday night. He said that the 29 could go lower, but it's too early to tell.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so here in DFW from the local TV Stations

NBC 5 (Finfrock) no mix tonight here in the DFW Metroplex and no mention of snow on Friday

WFAA 8 (Delkus) Mix tonight "possible" and flurries on Friday

Fox 4 (Henry) Mix tonight and 30% chance on Friday

Thoughts as to why they are different?

[iorange55]

Ok so here in DFW from the local TV Stations

NBC 5 (Finfrock) no mix tonight here in the DFW Metroplex and no mention of snow on Friday

WFAA 8 (Delkus) Mix tonight "possible" and flurries on Friday

Fox 4 (Henry) Mix tonight and 30% chance on Friday

Thoughts as to why they are different?

NBC 5 doesn't worry about the weather too much just check the website throughout the day. The forecast is hardly updated, and they give a link to weather.com's 10 day forecast, I mean...come on. i love Finfrock, but NBC 5 just doesn't invest the time, and are known for never going out on a limb. Usually Fox 4 is most accurate, and wfaa and CBS are the most aggressive

[gofrogs]

Whats in store for the end of the week in the fort worth area

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so here in DFW from the local TV Stations

NBC 5 (Finfrock) no mix tonight here in the DFW Metroplex and no mention of snow on Friday

WFAA 8 (Delkus) Mix tonight "possible" and flurries on Friday

Fox 4 (Henry) Mix tonight and 30% chance on Friday

Thoughts as to why they are different?

NBC 5 doesn't worry about the weather too much just check the website throughout the day. The forecast is hardly updated, and they give a link to weather.com's 10 day forecast, I mean...come on. i love Finfrock, but NBC 5 just doesn't invest the time, and are known for never going out on a limb. Usually Fox 4 is most accurate, and wfaa and CBS are the most aggressive

Was Finfrock on NBC 5 when Taft was on there? If seemed back in the day they used to be the one you could rely on. I wonder what has changed with them. I know that NBC bought out the Weather Channel a little while back so that explains the weather.com thing.

[wxgirl69]

What model comes out next?

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, I was pleased to see that weather.com has included snow in our forecast (Plano, TX) as well for thurs night and friday. Scattered flurries 30% chance thursday night with a low of 33 (i think NWS says below freezing that night) and a 60% chance of rain/snow mix on friday with a high of 43 (NWS says a high of 40). If this event comes to fruition for the dfw area, temps may need to be adjusted downward somewhat.

[gofrogs]

The TREND is for more precip in the dfw area for the late part ofo the week so that is good.

[Ntxw]

Looks like josh was on to something thinking the late week storm was trending northwards

[joshskeety]

Abilene update...

Just went outside.. Small ice pellets and looks like there is flurries mixing in.. We are just getting the precip now where I live so when the bigger band gets here ill update again..

Temp; 35.4

[iorange55]

Abilene update...

Just went outside.. Small ice pellets and looks like there is flurries mixing in.. We are just getting the precip now where I live so when the bigger band gets here ill update again..

Temp; 35.4

If you could make it somehow come down in Dallas as well when it gets here I'd appreciate it, if you're not too busy.

[joshskeety]

Winter weather Advisory now for the Abilene area.. Heavy snow being reported now in the city.. (I live 10 miles south of the city).. Nothing yet, but heavy bands still north of me headed this way..

[Extremeweatherguy]

You can see the snow coming down on this webcam in Abilene...



This one too...

[iorange55]

You can see the snow coming down on this webcam in Abilene...



This one too...

Awesome! looks like a lot of snow big flakes too. I hate the difference 3 hours away can make.

[somethingfunny]