Severe Weather Threat for NE Gulf Tues/Wed.

[jinftl]

True but the '93 superstorm was not tropical in nature. But there were certainly hurricane-force winds and surge in areas.

Most folks didn't really heed the '93 warnings because they thought the tropical season couldn't happen in March.

I well remember those hurricane force winds overnight and flooding almost a mile inland where I live. The surge was less than 2 blocks from our house.

[CrazyC83]

Large 30H area running the coast from NE Florida to Hampton Roads...

SPC AC 010659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER ERN TX AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS
PERIOD...ON ERN FRINGES OF A MUCH LARGER/DIGGING TROUGH EXPANDING TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE ERN 2/3 OF CANADA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL UNDERGO
SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS...MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS A WARM SECTOR SPREADS NWD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LOW...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SWEEPING
EWD...APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD

...SOUTHEAST U.S. NEWD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...
WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS
EVIDENT THIS FORECAST...BEGINNING EARLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND STORMS -- AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD WITH TIME AS A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SPREADS NWD -- PARTICULARLY E OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
STREAMING NEWD WILL HINDER APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION...INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS -- LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF MULTIPLE BANDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED CELLS.

WHILE GENERAL LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HINDER
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH STORMS ONGOING
WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION --
INCLUDING BOTH BOWS/LEWPS AND SUPERCELLS -- CAN BE EXPECTED. ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED BANDS OF
STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL ALSO
EXIST -- BOTH WITH ISOLATED STORMS AND WITHIN COMPLEX LINE SEGMENTS.
THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT LIKELY
REMAINING ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NEWD AS FAR AS ERN
VA AND SWD ACROSS FL LATE.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1419Z (9:19AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 011729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL
TO COASTAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST
TX IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST TX
EARLY WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/JET ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...CONSIDERABLE CYCLOGENESIS
IS ANTICIPATED WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...PRIMARY DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO THE INLAND
RETURN OF A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

...NORTHEAST GULF/SOUTHEAST STATES TO CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...
AN APPRECIABLE/LONG DURATION SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW
STRONG/DAMAGING EVENTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY ACROSS AL/FL
PANHANDLE IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE/WEAK
SURFACE LOW. AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD
AND TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...DISPLACING
A COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS/CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES TO CAROLINAS VICINITY. WHILE WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO HINDER STRONGER
SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...A STEADY INFLUX OF 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ONGOING/DIURNALLY INCREASING AND WELL-SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND/OR EXISTING CONVECTIVE
LINE. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WITH ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS /GENERALLY 200 TO 500 MS PER S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS/LEWPS...WITH ASSOCIATED
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PRE-CONVECTIVE LINE/QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN HALF OF FL TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

..GUYER.. 12/01/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1738Z (12:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[dixiebreeze]

GMZ086-012130-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
930 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

...GALE WARNING N OF 27N...

.THIS AFTERNOON...N OF FRONT NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. S OF FRONT E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS N PART.
.TONIGHT...N OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. S
OF 25N SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS N
PART.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SHIFTING
TO W 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND FRONT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. S OF 27N S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SHIFTING TO W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG FRONT.
.THU...N OF 28N NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT BECOMING N WINDS 10 TO 15
KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. S OF 28N N WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL.
.FRI...N OF 24N NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 24N
S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...W OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. E OF FRONT SW WINDS
20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

[dixiebreeze]

Statement as of 7:00 PM EST on December 01, 2009


... Potential for severe storms and coastal hazards Wednesday into
Thursday...

Developing low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will
continue to intensify as it moves northeast toward the northern
Gulf Coast tonight and across the southeastern states Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Ahead of the low an increasing moist
southerly wind flow will develop over the region during Wednesday.
This increasing southerly flow over the adjacent Gulf waters will
help to build seas and generate large breaking waves... dangerous
rip currents and high surf along area beaches Wednesday into
Thursday.

Tides are expected to run above normal along the entire West Coast
of Florida... ranging from around one foot above normal near Fort
Myers to 2 to 3 feet above normal around the Tampa Bay region...
to 3 to 4 feet above normal further north along the Citrus and
Levy County coasts. These above normal tides could cause some
coastal flooding at times of high tide Wednesday and Wednesday
night... especially along the Nature Coast. Therefore... a coastal
Flood Watch is in effect from Manatee County northward through
Levy County.

The strong southerly wind flow and increasing seas will make for
hazardous boating conditions over the adjacent Gulf waters... and
mariners... fishermen... and boating enthusiasts may want to
postpone trips into the Gulf until conditions improve late in
the week.

As the low pressure area lifts northeast into the southeastern
states Wednesday a trailing cold front will approach from the
west. An increasingly moist and unstable air mass ahead of this
front will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along and ahead of the boundary as it moves toward west central
and southwest Florida. Current timing of this front would bring
showers and thunderstorms into the Nature Coast around midday
Wednesday... with this activity spreading south into the Tampa Bay
area during the mid to late afternoon hours... and then across
southwest Florida during the evening.

At the current time sufficient low level moisture combined with
strong prefrontal convergence and increasing wind shear within
the atmosphere may support some strong to severe storms as the
front moves south through the region... especially from the Tampa
Bay area north through the Nature Coast. The main hazards from
these storms will be damaging winds and possible isolated
tornadoes and waterspouts. In addition... locally heavy rainfall
and deadly lightning strikes will accompany the storms.

All residents and visitors of west central and southwest Florida
should remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions during
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media outlet for
further updates on this developing weather situation.

[CrazyC83]

It could start before dawn near the mouth of the Mississippi, but the big stuff is tomorrow into tomorrow night...

[dixiebreeze]

I agree, Miss. Ala. and the Panhandle are going to get hit hard. We'll get it later tomorrow evening.

[dixiebreeze]

I agree, Miss. Ala. and the Panhandle are going to get hit hard. We'll get it later tomorrow evening.

[Dean4Storms]

Already had well over an inch here at my house today and winds picking up now out of the east gusting to 26mph.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020510Z - 020715Z

WHILE A WW IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM ...TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS LARGELY CONTINGENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...AS WIND PROFILES ARE
ALREADY STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY APPEAR MAXIMIZED WEST OF THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BENEATH A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE. THIS FEATURE IS MIGRATING
INLAND AHEAD OF A WEAK INITIAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE APPARENTLY JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL AREAS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR A TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY NEAR/WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. THEREAFTER ...AS THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARD THE
UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/ SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THE SEVERE THREAT
MAY WANE AGAIN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT THE APPROACH
OF STRONGER FORCING NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME ...WHEN BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO COMMENCE. JUXTAPOSED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 12/02/2009


ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30388826 31198798 31398695 31388605 30768479 30018381
29048417 30388826

[Sihara]

Sounds very much like the warnings of the National Weather Service before the No Name storm of '93.

Scary words, dixie.

There was a bit of a scandal here, IIRC, about only one local met predicting it, but those of us still using rabbit ears couldn't get the station. The others kind of dropped the ball on it.

But I think - again iirc - that there were a few things that combined to make that storm the fiasco that it was. Something involving the jet stream, a big winter front, and a developing low in the Gulf.

Anyway, this morning, the Special Wx Statement for Tampa Bay seemed to have been dropped, and the only advisory was a coastal flood watch. But it concluded with the warning that "coastal residents should be prepared to evacuate at a moment's notice."

But tonight, the Special Wx Statement is back along with warnings of damaging winds and possible tornados. Wx alarm on tomorrow night I guess. I just get the feeling they still don't have a good handle on it.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 021243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN AL/NRN FL
INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA...

...NERN GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF THE ERN GOM AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM
FORECAST. THIS AREA WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF COMPACT SYSTEM. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN MODEST WARM SECTOR EVOLVING
FROM NWRN FL/SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...THEN ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES
WITHIN A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FORECAST TO ADVANCE ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. PERSISTENT QUESTIONS ABOUT INSTABILITY PRECLUDES MDT RISK
ATTM...BUT OUTLOOK COULD BE UPGRADED LATER TODAY.

12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE AREA OF COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL
AIR REMAINED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL/NRN
GA...WITH MARINE/WARM FRONTS EXTENDING JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE AND
ERN CAROLINAS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NWD
RECOVERY OF 60+F SFC DEW POINTS INTO MORE CENTRAL-SRN GA AND THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH GRADUAL INLAND RECOVERY OFF THE ATLANTIC EXPECTED
INTO ERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER FAR SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEWD INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
QUALITY OF PRECEDING INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE BOTH WITH THE LINE AND WITH ANY
PRECEDING DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THREAT WILL RAMP-UP BY THE MID MORNING WITH ANY ENSUING
TORNADO POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE STRONG/DAMAGING GIVEN SFC-1 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50
KT. NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY.

THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO PARTS
OF ERN GA/SC AS MARINE AIR ADVANCES INLAND FROM INCREASING SSELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS...DESPITE PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS AREA MAY EVOLVE SEPARATELY OR ALONG NRN FRINGE OF
BROKEN SQUALL LINE ADVANCING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...BUT SHOULD ALSO
ADVANCE QUICKLY NEWD IN THE FORM OF FAST MOVING LINES AND/OR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. GIVEN EXTREME
WIND FIELDS...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. SHOULD AIR MASS RECOVER AS FORECAST...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS
THIS REGION.

...NRN AL TO ERN KY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FARTHER S...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL.

..EVANS.. 12/02/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1510Z (10:10AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming out.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado probs are 50/30.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1035 AM UNTIL
500 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CROSS CITY FLORIDA TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 787. WATCH NUMBER 787 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1035 AM EST.

DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LOW AND JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS GULF
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS WATCH AREA AS WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND FROM THE
GULF. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR AS IT MOVES INLAND...TORNADOS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. AT 15Z A MESO-LOW IS
MOVING NNEWD INTO SWRN GA AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 021630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE INITIALLY CLOSED LOW INVOF THE ARKLATEX WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE PHASES WITH A DEEP NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE NOW IN
ERN MS/WRN AL WILL MOVE NEWD AND DEEPEN TO THE W OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST
TODAY AND APPROACH THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AND CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT.
THE CORRIDOR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...FL PANHANDLE/N FL AND S GA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
AN ONGOING BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS N FL AND S
GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEST DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS N FL/S GA...AND HORIZONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6
C/KM...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG
WITH 50-80 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2 AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-75 KT. THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WITHIN THE BROKEN BANDS OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL FL.

...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STILL...THE COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER TO THE W. AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND PROFILES SPREAD NEWD...THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS /NOW OBSERVED JUST
OFFSHORE/ AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST...ALONG THE RETREATING COASTAL
FRONT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WARM SECTOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THE COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND. TONIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END BY 12Z
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

...NE AL/NW GA AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
SOME LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
RAINFALL...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW
BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 12/02/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1639Z (11:39AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...

VALID 021748Z - 021945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 788 CONTINUES.

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES SPREADING INLAND ACROSS NRN FL AND
SRN GA WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE MID 60S AND SFC TEMPS INTO LOW
70S. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE SFC HEATING RESULT IN MLCAPES
GENERALLY REMAINING LESS THAN 800 J/KG...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND
FORCED ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF 100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX...WILL
INCREASE THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH 19Z.

AT 1730Z CONVECTIVE LINE FROM JUST W OF COOK CO SSWWD THROUGH BROOKS
CO TO ERN WAKULLA CO IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE LINE WITH INDICATIONS OF
CIRCULATIONS NOW DEVELOPING ON THE COAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.
AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL THAT WILL BE MOVING 23045. OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT IS 27030.

..HALES.. 12/02/2009


ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31878440 32218386 32588284 32348202 31628141 31148146
30398164 30008192 29478235 29148302 29398389 31878440

[dizzyfish]

From SPC
1332 3 SE CRESTVIEW OKALOOSA FL 3073 8654 DUKE FIELD FIRE DEPARTMENT AT EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND. (MOB)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[CrazyC83]

That report was from the warm front this morning. It might refire on the Carolina coast this afternoon:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST WED DEC 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NERN SC AND SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021808Z - 022015Z

THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN GA TO JUST OFF THE SC COAST
AND S OF ILM. SEVERAL STORMS OFFSHORE WITHIN THE BROAD WARM FRONTAL
ZONE HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF ROTATION...BUT HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS ONSHORE.

AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE APPROACHING LOW...THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE ONSHORE...WITH A THREAT OF BRIEF
TORNADOES AS STORMS CROSS THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS MOST FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 65-68
F RANGE...AND ANY STORMS COINCIDENT WITH VALUES LOWER THAN THAT WILL
BE ELEVATED AND GENERALLY POSE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 12/02/2009


ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 34857669 34747603 34367543 33517563 33297580 33267634
33217699 33047803 32747877 32607929 32677966 33097951
33997892 34267816 34787729 34857669

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CST WED DEC 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN GA...CNTRL AND SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021831Z - 022000Z

AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO FAR SRN
SC...WITH MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE S. A DISTINCT MESO-LOW HAS
FORMED NEAR MCN...WITH DAMAGING WINDS REPORTED. THIS LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN EXTREMELY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 12/02/2009


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 33188378 33528199 33738078 33438001 33017992 32438008
32078075 31748205 31818291 32458355 33188378