Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxgirl69]

@ Josh.. Then that means that the freezing line is all the way down to the coast line here in South Texas.
WOW!!!!
This is getting very interesting..

[HockeyTx82]

Here are the snowfall totals from this morning. Not to bad

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=1

[Tireman4]

That map looks like the precip line for Friday just clips the Dallas area. Cold will be there, but will the moisture make it far enough north? - that will be the big thing to watch over the next 48 hours. Cmon, please, a snow day on a friday makes for a nice 3 day weekend.

Yeah and I have to drive to Dallas for a youth football tournament in this mess. All the way from Houston to Dallas Friday.


OT-Cool avatar Coldfusion. Judas Priest rocks. Screaming For Vengence is a great CD, although Painkiller and British Steel are amazing too

[Ntxw]

I've been hearing about an even colder arctic air mass next week. How cold could it get?

[gboudx]

That map looks like the precip line for Friday just clips the Dallas area. Cold will be there, but will the moisture make it far enough north? - that will be the big thing to watch over the next 48 hours. Cmon, please, a snow day on a friday makes for a nice 3 day weekend.

DFW NWS put out a recent SPS about Friday. For now, they don't think we'll get more than flurries north of I-20. But as always, wait and see.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030800-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1143 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

...SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. WITH A COLD AIRMASS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...THE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER AREAS OF SNOW ON FRIDAY.

FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO WEATHERFORD TO LAMPASAS LINE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

HEAVIER SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE IMMEDIATE DALLAS FORT WORTH METRO AREA.

LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO HILLSBORO TO
PALESTINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT WITNESSING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...WITH AROUND ONE INCH POSSIBLE. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS MAY CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS. PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN FORT WORTH.

[double D]

I've been hearing about an even colder arctic air mass next week. How cold could it get?

The GFS is showing a 1058H coming down from western Canada, but it seems to weaken it too fast and never brings the real cold into Texas. The GFS is notorious for underestamating the dense arctic highs. Let's see if the GFS can change it's tune on future runs.

[joshskeety]

If San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi and Houston see snow, it will be the first time in HISTORY that every major city in Texas saw snow before December 15th..

From El Paso to Houston.. How crazy is that????

[snow and ice]

12z run of the EURO is somewhat further north with the track of the upper level system on Friday. It look likes it pretty much follows I-20 across Texas into northern Louisiana and north-central Mississippi on Saturday.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[srainhoutx]

12z run of the EURO is somewhat further north with the track of the upper level system on Friday. It look likes it pretty much follows I-20 across Texas into northern Louisiana and north-central Mississippi on Saturday.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Actually the EC has dug a bit further S than the last couple of runs and a bit stronger with the shortwave. The CMC is adding a bit more moisture as time goes on as well. Certainly going to be an interesting few days ahead. To keep hope alive let's look at WV Imagery. Several features to watch.

1) Strong push of colder air heading S in the S Plains. Denver is setting at 17 degrees with light snow

2) Strong Upper Level energy diving S along the Rockies

3) Mid and Upper level moisture from the Pacific

4) Strong Upper low over AR/LA pulling down CAA across TX

5) Upper Level Low over the Great Lakes sending waves S in the Upper flow

The key to any wintry weather for us will be the amount of low level moisture that can return overrunning the colder air at the surface. Guidance suggests that a Coastal Low/Trough will develop near the S TX Coast ahead of the shortwave that is diving S across the Rockies at this time. As many have stated, this is a complex situation and everything has to work out just right for any wintry precip chances for us. We shall see, but still liking the trends right now...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[wxgirl69]

Do you think we will be getting some winter storm warnings issued?

[WantSnow]

That map looks like the precip line for Friday just clips the Dallas area. Cold will be there, but will the moisture make it far enough north? - that will be the big thing to watch over the next 48 hours. Cmon, please, a snow day on a friday makes for a nice 3 day weekend.

I hope it comes further north

[Comanche]

wxman, I see you perusing, what do you see? Aside from the chance at H-town snow Friday, I am VERY interested in what you see temp-wise for the lower 48 next week as well.

[severe]

Here are the snowfall totals from this morning. Not to bad

So happy for y'all. I just visited my aunt, uncle and cousins up in Sanger this past weekend. When I was leaving I told them they had a chance of snow this week.
I'm curious if the NWS predicted this event, or if they just predicted a possibility of some flurries?
Seems most events down here come in a surprising fashion.
I know in 04 they predicted the possibility of snow maybe five days in advance, but nothing to the degree my area and especially to my south received.

[joshskeety]

18z NAM takes all the precip out of west central Texas..

[Big O]

Actually, with respect to the European 12Z model run, it is not clear if the shortwave digs as far south as srainhoutx suggests. At 12Z on Friday (6:00 a.m) the shortwave is over the western tip of Texas and the southeastern tip of NM. Twenty-four hours later (12Z Saturday), the shortwave is over north central AL/MS. One of two things occurred during the 24 time period: either (a) the shortwave tracked directly ENE or (b) it tracked ESE, then east, then ENE. IMHO, the low digs as far south as New Braunfels, then moves ENE toward College Station, and then ENE toward north central AL/MS. Areas NW of Houston could see significant snowfall, but for Houston to see significant snowfall I believe (IMHO) a coastal trough would have to develop. However, even if one does not develop I see the Houston area receiving perhaps 1-2", with higher amounts to the NW, especially in the vicinity of College Station. If a coastal trough develops, as suggested by some models, the Houston metro will see heavier snow amounts.

I'm not sure about the amount of snowfall in San Antonio or Austin. They will clearly be cold enough; it just isn't clear if there will be enough lift that far west. Any thoughts?

[Corey_n_clute]

hey SRAINHOUTX ive ebn waiting for a confromtion from the khou board for 4 dayd now whats the hold up? been wanting to ask a ? so ill ask it here..with all the snow talk is the ppl close to the cost going to get a little sumthing..say n clute,lakejackson,angleton..ect..?

[double D]

18z NAM takes all the precip out of west central Texas..

The NAM has been trending that way for the past couple of runs now. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that it is the 18z run (plus it's the NAM). Although if the GFS starts trending that way then we might have to accept that we might not see as much snow as we once thought.

[srainhoutx]

hey SRAINHOUTX ive ebn waiting for a confromtion from the khou board for 4 dayd now whats the hold up? been wanting to ask a ? so ill ask it here..with all the snow talk is the ppl close to the cost going to get a little sumthing..say n clute,lakejackson,angleton..ect..?

You have been approved.

[HockeyTx82]

This is out of Amarillo, Tx

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ON MONDAY BUT IF THE COLD AIRMASS LOCKS IN ON SUNDAY...
FORECAST TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. THE PATTERN BY 00Z MONDAY
CONTINUES A PATTERN LOOSELY RESEMBLING THE MCFARLAND SIGNATURE WITH
MORE COLD AIR LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
HEAD BY MIDWEEK AS THIS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

[joshskeety]

18z NAM takes all the precip out of west central Texas..

The NAM has been trending that way for the past couple of runs now. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that it is the 18z run (plus it's the NAM). Although if the GFS starts trending that way then we might have to accept that we might not see as much snow as we once thought.

Yea, I noticed that as well.. The GFS has also to an extent as well.. I try not to put too much stock into the NAM outside of 48h, but its fun to look.. hahaha

The shortwave is still on the Texas/NM border so to me it doesn't matter if the NAM has precip or not, thats a pretty good moisture set up for us in most cases..

I really expected a more northern trend, and still kind of do, however, the cold weather is very impressive right now..