Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't place bets on much snow for dfw on friday. Next week seems to be more interesting though.

[hb905]

is it possible for this storm friday to change direction

[hb905]

whats happening next week?

[srainhoutx]

Here is Jeff's evening Update...

Increasing confidence in snow event on Friday for SE TX.

With temperatures forecast to fall to or below freezing during the day on Friday accumulations and dangerous travel conditions are possible by Friday afternoon.

There has been little change today with respect to model progs of the upcoming event. 12Z GFS is a little more wet along with NAM with ECMWF and CMC the driest. GFS solution would produce some significant accumulations while ECMWF would be flurries. One question appears to be answered and that is it will be cold enough for snow. All soundings show a classic snow profile by midday Friday as strong arctic cold air advection overspreads the entire region bringing the low levels to and below freezing. Will start the day with surface temps. in the upper 30's falling toward 30 by late afternoon and the upper 20's by evening. I am very tempted to lean toward the wetter solutions given the consistency of the GFS and NAM and the fact that the NAM is usually the drier model. However, will hold off on getting too carried away with the moisture as the greatest amounts may remain just offshore or along the coast.

Friday:

Strong dynamic lift arrives by late morning with light rain developing from SW to NE across the entire region. NW counties will likely go quickly to snow with the rain/snow line dropping SE over time during the afternoon hours as the lows level cool. Strong lift may help to overcome the lack of good moisture amounts and such situations do not require a lot of moisture any how.

Accumulations:

A tough call as intensities will play a big role here and that depends on moisture available. Will go with a dusting to 1 inch north of I-10 with much of this melting on impact early on. As surface temperatures fall during the day...will begin to see accumulations on grassy surfaces, rooftops, and elevated roadways. S of I-10 change over will take longer and may be delayed until Friday afternoon resulting in less accumulation if any. Any meso scale banding or periods of heavy snow could bring a quick 2-4 inches of accumulation and this would impact not only elevated surfaces but also surface streets.

Impacts:

We are close enough to the event with enough confidence to be concerned with impacts. Given the surface temperature forecast to fall to freezing, snow accumulation, slush, icing of bridges and overpasses appears possible if not likely by Friday afternoon N of I-10. Any periods of heavy snow could accumulate on area surface roads. Expect a heavy wet snow with decent water content and with trees still heavily leaved the weight of the snow could bring down some limbs on to power lines especially with the expected strong NW winds Friday evening.

Aviation travel will experience issues with possible icing at terminals and taxi-ways. Aircraft control surface may ice and be required to de-ice before departing the terminal gate forcing long delays. Reduced visibility and very low ceiling will also delay both incoming and outgoing traffic.

Actions:

TXDOT will begin applying de-icing agent to the major freeway flyovers and overpasses Thursday morning. Focus will be on I-45 N between Beltway 8 and Hardy Toll Rd, US 59 N between Beltway 8 and the San Jacinto River, US 290 overpasses from HWY NW to Hempstead, and the high Beltway 8 interchanges. This agent helps raise the freezing level of water to a degree to help prevent freezing of overpasses when air temps are near the freezing mark. TXDOT and local counties are staffing for sanding operations to begin Friday if needed if bridges begin to glaze over.

Freeze:

Will see temperatures fall below freezing Friday afternoon and bottom out in the upper 20's Saturday AM. Some locations could fall into the mid 20's. This will require a freeze warning for near all areas as this will be the first killing freeze this winter. Additionally, some locations could be at of below freezing for 8-10 hours increasing the risk of damage to tender vegetation. This does not appear to be a pipe threat, but any exposed outside pipes should be protected.

Forecast Confidence:

Forecast confidence while increasing is really no greater than 50% at this time that snow will fall and accumulate. Several factors must combine just right and at the right time for this event to actually be an event. Confidence is close enough to at least start to consider Winter Storm Watches. Cannot emphasize enough the small scale factors that can make a hugh difference and some of these will not be resolved until Friday morning.

[Corey_n_clute]

I heard nothing but a cold rain for us in brazoria county..is that true?

[Weatherdude20]

Sorry everyone for logging on a little late...
In North Richland Hills we saw 1.5 inches of snow and it got downto 32 at around 7:30 the temp roseto about 34/35 after 8:30 so the All snow which started about 6:15 here ended at 8:30 and after that ended as a Light sleet event... It as amazing considering it the low temp for NRH was expected to be 39 here hahaha... They expected NO accumulation and we saw 1.5 Times that! LOL I just hope they're that wrong about the Thurs. Night Friday event.... Bc here ABC News 8 Pete Delkus predicts an inch or more For Fort Worth... And that is as of like 30 minutes ago... I can't belive they are already predicting that much accum. this far out! The low here Thurs night is 29!!!!!!!!!! Brrrrrrrrrrrr Get ready for the snow people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hb905]

Sorry everyone for logging on a little late...
In North Richland Hills we saw 1.5 inches of snow and it got downto 32 at around 7:30 the temp roseto about 34/35 after 8:30 so the All snow which started about 6:15 here ended at 8:30 and after that ended as a Light sleet event... It as amazing considering it the low temp for NRH was expected to be 39 here hahaha... They expected NO accumulation and we saw 1.5 Times that! LOL I just hope they're that wrong about the Thurs. Night Friday event.... Bc here ABC News 8 Pete Delkus predicts an inch or more For Fort Worth... And that is as of like 30 minutes ago... I can't belive they are already predicting that much accum. this far out! The low here Thurs night is 29!!!!!!!!!! Brrrrrrrrrrrr Get ready for the snow people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

im hoping it comes further north to the metroplex on friday!!!

[Weatherdude20]

Is it possible for this next system to effect further North than now expected like make a turn A little to the North?

[iorange55]

Sorry everyone for logging on a little late...
In North Richland Hills we saw 1.5 inches of snow and it got downto 32 at around 7:30 the temp roseto about 34/35 after 8:30 so the All snow which started about 6:15 here ended at 8:30 and after that ended as a Light sleet event... It as amazing considering it the low temp for NRH was expected to be 39 here hahaha... They expected NO accumulation and we saw 1.5 Times that! LOL I just hope they're that wrong about the Thurs. Night Friday event.... Bc here ABC News 8 Pete Delkus predicts an inch or more For Fort Worth... And that is as of like 30 minutes ago... I can't belive they are already predicting that much accum. this far out! The low here Thurs night is 29!!!!!!!!!! Brrrrrrrrrrrr Get ready for the snow people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It surprises me he's predicting an inch of snow as much as I'd like to believe it I just don't see it for this one. The moisture just doesn't look to be there. Although with it being that cold I guess it wouldn't take much to stick, and cause some problems.

[Ntxw]

Sorry everyone for logging on a little late...
In North Richland Hills we saw 1.5 inches of snow and it got downto 32 at around 7:30 the temp roseto about 34/35 after 8:30 so the All snow which started about 6:15 here ended at 8:30 and after that ended as a Light sleet event... It as amazing considering it the low temp for NRH was expected to be 39 here hahaha... They expected NO accumulation and we saw 1.5 Times that! LOL I just hope they're that wrong about the Thurs. Night Friday event.... Bc here ABC News 8 Pete Delkus predicts an inch or more For Fort Worth... And that is as of like 30 minutes ago... I can't belive they are already predicting that much accum. this far out! The low here Thurs night is 29!!!!!!!!!! Brrrrrrrrrrrr Get ready for the snow people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It surprises me he's predicting an inch of snow as much as I'd like to believe it I just don't see it for this one. The moisture just doesn't look to be there. Although with it being that cold I guess it wouldn't take much to stick, and cause some problems.

The system on Friday, from what i've heard is also quite dynamic. The upper atmosphere seems to have some moisture to work with but the surface moisture isn't too good. So the snow that does fall would evaporate before hitting the ground. If we can get some decent lower level moisture, surely totals would be somewhat higher.

[gofrogs]

Heres the low down more than an inch for the dallas area two maybe three but we could be seeing a great storm next week so well keep an eye on that one after this one

[ntxweatherwatcher]

I hope we do get some measurable snow on Friday here in DFW! What is the system next week looking like? Looks like we are in for an exciting winter!!

[Ntxw]

There is a storm that's been showing up on the models for middle of next week. There is also a strong high pressure system up in Canada with lots of cold air and the models aren't having a good handle with it as of right now. If things fall into place correctly should set up a nice storm for the southern plains

[cheezyWXguy]

Heres the low down more than an inch for the dallas area two maybe three but we could be seeing a great storm next week so well keep an eye on that one after this one

As much as I would love to believe I'll be seeing 2-3 inches on friday, I dont see where you're getting your info. Could you fill me in?

[Ntxw]

Heres the low down more than an inch for the dallas area two maybe three but we could be seeing a great storm next week so well keep an eye on that one after this one

As much as I would love to believe I'll be seeing 2-3 inches on friday, I dont see where you're getting your info. Could you fill me in?

I posted earlier,

The system on Friday, from what i've heard is also quite dynamic. The upper atmosphere seems to have some moisture to work with but the surface moisture isn't too good. So the snow that does fall would evaporate before hitting the ground. If we can get some decent lower level moisture, surely totals would be somewhat higher. Also with colder temperatures what does fall has a better chance of sticking.

[double D]

Well, the 00z NAM is coming in with little or no precip for the Austin area Friday. Hopefully the GFS will still show some precip with the 0z run. The area's southeast of Austin might be the only places that see any signficant snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Heres the low down more than an inch for the dallas area two maybe three but we could be seeing a great storm next week so well keep an eye on that one after this one

As much as I would love to believe I'll be seeing 2-3 inches on friday, I dont see where you're getting your info. Could you fill me in?

I posted earlier,

The system on Friday, from what i've heard is also quite dynamic. The upper atmosphere seems to have some moisture to work with but the surface moisture isn't too good. So the snow that does fall would evaporate before hitting the ground. If we can get some decent lower level moisture, surely totals would be somewhat higher. Also with colder temperatures what does fall has a better chance of sticking.

Oh, yeah I saw that, I just didnt know that meant 2-3 inches as opposed to the <.5 in. expected.

[weatherguy425]

Double D, you don't completely miss out

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... f_042l.gif

[serenata09]

Any chance that any of that precip in the panhandle right now will find its way into the DFW area?

[iorange55]

Any chance that any of that precip in the panhandle right now will find its way into the DFW area?

Don't see any in the panhandle? Must be really light. Next chance we have is Tomorrow night and Friday. I don't think it'll be a lot though if anything. Right now i'm just hoping the new GFS shows more precip for Austin and San Antonio I'd hate to see them miss out.