Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxgirl69]

I live in Deer Park and I see counties north of me undera winter storm watch. Does that mean our chances for snow have gone bye bye or our amounts are going to be minimal and don't warrant a watch?

[iorange55]

I live in Deer Park and I see counties north of me undera winter storm watch. Does that mean our chances for snow have gone bye bye or our amounts are going to be minimal and don't warrant a watch?

They're just going on the side of caution and opted to just issue you one for the northern tier. They might change that later, but snow is still in the forecast for you. They said by the end snow could be reaching the beach. So unless you live on a boat offshore about 100 miles you still have a chance for some snow.

[Corey_n_clute]

I live in Deer Park and I see counties north of me undera winter storm watch. Does that mean our chances for snow have gone bye bye or our amounts are going to be minimal and don't warrant a watch?

i think u will see snow like we will..but it will occour in the afternoon and will probally melt on contact...this is what jeff said...

"This area will be the last to change to snow and see freezing temperatures arrive. Matagorda Bay region will fall below freezing by late afternoon with a dusting to 1” of accumulation possible. Eastward over Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties, snow is likely but much will melt on impact and current thinking is little to no accumulation. "

[wxgirl69]

Well bummer...

[goCoogs]

My wife has to drive from Houston to Boerne(just NW of San Antonio) either sometime on Friday or on Saturday morning. What do you all think the road conditions be like? When will it be safe to go? Thanks.

[iorange55]

My wife has to drive from Houston to Boerne(just NW of San Antonio) either sometime on Friday or on Saturday morning. What do you all think the road conditions be like? When will it be safe to go? Thanks.

Depends if it's late Saturday morning then it'll be fine because most of it will be melted, but if it's Friday, or early Saturday Morning I'd be careful. Because it will be below freezing in Houston, so it just all depends on how much moisture falls. If any does fall, I'd try to leave later Saturday morning if possible.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

And here we go….

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch effective from 600am Friday until midnight Friday for the northern ½ of SE TX this includes the following counties: Montgomery, Waller, Washington, Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Brazos, Burleson, Walker, Houston, Polk, Trinity, Madison, and San Jacinto counties.

Winter Storm Watch issued for all extreme SE TX and SW LA for Friday night including coastal counties.

Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for additional portions of SE TX and northern counties of the coastal bend.

Discussion:

Powerful short wave dropping into New Mexico this morning will begin to swing into W and SW TX overnight. 295-300k isentropic lift begins to spread northward out of SW TX while strong forcing aloft develops surface low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. Cold arctic high pressure cell over WY this morning bleeds into the state with the low level air mass falling near to below freezing during the day on Friday. Impressive dynamical lift will come to bear over the region Friday afternoon and evening as the thermal profiles fall to freezing. GFS shows the formation of meso scale snow banding Friday afternoon along a line from Victoria to Houston while 06Z NAM shows for the first time no precip at all. Feel the NAM is under-forecasting the amount of moisture and will side with the wetter GFS and potential for greater accumulations. Given the fact that we are within 24 hours of the event…not sure more confidence will be gained. ECMWF and CMC still show little to no precip with this event while the GFS has also been very consistent since Monday on its placement of the QPF. All models do agree the air will be cold enough for snow along and north of a line from Beeville to Port Lavaca to Galveston.

Accumulations:

Winter Storm Watch Counties:

With temperatures falling to freezing early Friday over our NW and N counties, expect the most accumulation in this area. First few hours of snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces, as temperatures fall into the lower 30’s/upper 20’s will start to get widespread accumulations over bridges/overpasses and even some surface streets. Will go with 1-4” of snow accumulation within the Winter Storm Watch counties Friday afternoon/evening.

US 59 from Victoria to Liberty Co including metro Houston:

More impact melting will occur in this zone with first hours of snow melting on impact. Surface temperatures fall to freezing from NW to SE Friday afternoon with accumulations following the freeze line. Will likely see some accumulation on elevated surfaces with bridges/overpasses glazing over as the temperature falls to freezing. Will go with anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches in this corridor. Should the GFS verify significant accumulating snow will occur in this area…much greater than currently being predicted…if you go with the NAM or ECMWF a dusting is most likely.

Coastal Counties:

This area will be the last to change to snow and see freezing temperatures arrive. Matagorda Bay region will fall below freezing by late afternoon with a dusting to 1” of accumulation possible. Eastward over Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers counties, snow is likely but much will melt on impact and current thinking is little to no accumulation.

Impacts:

Will see some significant impacts as the temperatures fall toward and below freezing Friday and the precipitation develops/moves into the region. Initial impact melting on bridges/overpasses will then glaze over as the temperatures fall followed by slushy accumulation on top of a layer of ice. Troubles on the bridges will start NW and slide SE during the afternoon hours. Do not see surface streets being much of an issue given the warm ground conditions…but if it comes down hard enough…this could change.

Snow will be very heavy and wet given a moist air mass with decent water content. This is not ice that glazes everything over however accumulation on trees may be enough to bring down a few tree limbs.

Aviation will see the greatest impacts as freezing temperatures and precipitation result in de-icing procedures at the terminals. With the freezing level tanking to the surface during the day…aircraft will experience icing of their control surfaces in the low levels and on the ground. Low visibilities and ceilings along with de-icing with result in increasing delays at area airports. Think taxiways should remain clear unless heavy snow bands develop.

Actions:

TXDOT will begin applying de-icing agent to area freeways (US 290, I-45, US 59) this morning along with some of the high connector/flyover ramps that are usual problem areas during such events. Any bridge/overpass will have ice potential and extreme caution should be used when approaching these areas. Travel will become increasingly hazardous Friday afternoon as temperatures fall to freezing and glazing begins on area bridges/overpasses. Locations in the Winter Storm Watch area may see ice accumulation as early as mid morning Friday. A tough call for Harris County and metro Houston, but would expect issues to start in Montgomery and Waller counties and then spread SE into Harris County during the afternoon hours.

As with any winter weather event…high uncertainty remains until the event is usually in progress. Significant changes to the forecast and accumulations will be possible today and Friday and residents should stay alert to the forecast and changes.

Will send another update about 100pm and around 400pm.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so quick question pertaining to snowfall and it sticking. Everytime time it snows in Texas someone always spouts off "Ground is to warm, it won't stick" Now while I believe this statement at what point does it not become true. In otherwords how long do we need to be at a certain temp in order for the ground to allow for a true sticking of snow and not just becuase the airtemp is cold enough?

[Corey_n_clute]

what would immediate coastal areas mean? (city wise) as in like galveston freeport..angleton,brazoria,lakejackson?

[srainhoutx]

For those that will see any snowfall under banding or deformation zone setups, heavy snowfall rate will allow snow to stick to everything. Should we we a meso scale event, snowfall rate could be very high and much more accumulations are possible IMHO. Folks along costal counties will just need to pay close attention as things unfold. No one can know with any certainty at this point this morning exactly how things are going to play out. Tomorrow we will have a much better handle on things, if then. I will say that I'm liking the chance that almost everyone stands a chance to see something. We shall see.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Corey_n_clute]

For those that will see any snowfall under banding or deformation zone setups, heavy snowfall rate will allow snow to stick to everything. Should we we a meso scale event, snowfall rate could be very high and much more accumulations are possible IMHO. Folks along costal counties will just need to pay close attention as things unfold. No one can know with any certainty at this point this morning exactly how things are going to play out. Tomorrow we will have a much better handle on things, if then. I will say that I'm liking the chance that almost everyone stands a chance to see something. We shall see.

hey can someone Please accept my request to the khou board! the email addy it was sent from was brazoria12@yahoo.com

[Corey_n_clute]

what would immediate coastal areas mean? (city wise) as in like galveston freeport..angleton,brazoria,lakejackson?

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately, SE Texas' blessing looks like my curse. My moisture for them ... more snow. Less moisture over south central Texas, less snow. The math is easy and accepting this ultimate reality is hard.

0z GFS snow numbers show 0-1 inches in Austin. My guess is we see a trace to a half inch at most. Nice for picture taking but that'll be it. Oh well, my dreams of a snow day at home with wifey and kids needs to be put down for now.

And then there is this ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
925 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY TO DECREASE 1ST PERIOD MIN TEMPS BY 1-6
DEGREES BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOUD DECK
AT 5K FEET EXPANDING EASTWARD. THE 06Z AND PRELIMINARY 12Z MODEL
DATA IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE 00Z DATA FOR OUR AREA AND IS NOT
ENCOURAGING FOR OUR SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST. WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z
GFS BEFORE MAKING ANY FORECAST DECISIONS...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE
TREND IS DOWN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ON FRIDAY.

[double D]

Unfortunately, SE Texas' blessing looks like my curse. My moisture for them ... more snow. Less moisture over south central Texas, less snow. The math is easy and accepting this ultimate reality is hard.

0z GFS snow numbers show 0-1 inches in Austin. My guess is we see a trace to a half inch at most. Nice for picture taking but that'll be it. Oh well, my dreams of a snow day at home with wifey and kids needs to be put down for now.

The models sure have trended much drier, that's for sure. I going to wait for the 12z GFS before I get to bummed about it though. I do have to say that even though the models are painting less moisture for our area, you still have to take it with a grain of salt until we see where the snow bands start setting up.

[Portastorm]

I know what's coming ... let me put it this way, I'm going to need a pillow for my backside tomorrow.

[iorange55]

I know what's coming ... let me put it this way, I'm going to need a pillow for my backside tomorrow.

new GFS shows more precip overall, austin and san antonio look to be on the edge of the light to moderate line. I wouldn't give up hope you never know till it falls. Just like yesterday morning here in Dallas. Even if you don't get a lot, you'll most likely see some, and it's only December 3rd so it's a good start to winter for Texas

[wxgirl69]

For those that will see any snowfall under banding or deformation zone setups, heavy snowfall rate will allow snow to stick to everything. Should we we a meso scale event, snowfall rate could be very high and much more accumulations are possible IMHO. Folks along costal counties will just need to pay close attention as things unfold. No one can know with any certainty at this point this morning exactly how things are going to play out. Tomorrow we will have a much better handle on things, if then. I will say that I'm liking the chance that almost everyone stands a chance to see something. We shall see.

hey can someone Please accept my request to the khou board! the email addy it was sent from was brazoria12@yahoo.com

Sorry off subject.. May I ask what being excepted to the khou board means?

[iorange55]

For those that will see any snowfall under banding or deformation zone setups, heavy snowfall rate will allow snow to stick to everything. Should we we a meso scale event, snowfall rate could be very high and much more accumulations are possible IMHO. Folks along costal counties will just need to pay close attention as things unfold. No one can know with any certainty at this point this morning exactly how things are going to play out. Tomorrow we will have a much better handle on things, if then. I will say that I'm liking the chance that almost everyone stands a chance to see something. We shall see.

hey can someone Please accept my request to the khou board! the email addy it was sent from was brazoria12@yahoo.com

Sorry off subject.. May I ask what being excepted to the khou board means?

KHOU forum http://z.khou.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=9

Houston area weather. I'm assuming he means accepted so that he can start posting.

[wxgirl69]

I have tried to get into khou. No diss to storm2k. I love them both equally.. But, I can not get in.. Even tried the z...

[HockeyTx82]

Wow CBS 11 here in Dallas is pretty bold with the forecast next week.

http://weather.cbs11tv.com/US/TX/Dallas.html