Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gboudx]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

[jeff]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

I doubt this is reaching the ground...Look at the cloud sheild advancing rapidly up the TX coast and impressive CAA ongoing over C TX.

[Portastorm]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

I doubt this is reaching the ground...Look at the cloud sheild advancing rapidly up the TX coast and impressive CAA ongoing over C TX.

Oh yeah ... this one's looking more and more like the 2004 event. Most places in the metro area here today couldn't even reach 50 degrees and that was with bright sun ... now we have a cloud shield advancing across the city rapidly and the temps should start to fall.

Yep, just like 2004 ... the coast will get snow. I get clouds and cold in Austin. Grrrr!

[rainman]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

Cloud deck is around 10kft with a 12 dewpoint on the surface. Its not reaching.

[Corey_n_clute]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

I doubt this is reaching the ground...Look at the cloud sheild advancing rapidly up the TX coast and impressive CAA ongoing over C TX.

Oh yeah ... this one's looking more and more like the 2004 event. Most places in the metro area here today couldn't even reach 50 degrees and that was with bright sun ... now we have a cloud shield advancing across the city rapidly and the temps should start to fall.

Yep, just like 2004 ... the coast will get snow. I get clouds and cold in Austin. Grrrr!

wo says the coast will get snow?..gene norma weather dude on khou said places south of metro hou will be rain..so im wondering why r we even included in this weather advisory?

[FriscoWX]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

I do find it interesting that radar returns (most likely virga) are showing up this far north AND east... I noticed the dewpoint in Wichita Falls is 17 so I can't imagine they are seeing anything but maybe a lone flake or two reaching the ground...

[gboudx]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

I doubt this is reaching the ground...Look at the cloud sheild advancing rapidly up the TX coast and impressive CAA ongoing over C TX.

That's what I was thinking that nothing is reaching the ground. From my vantage point on the 4th floor of a building on the north side of Dallas(Richardson/Plano border), I can see the cloud deck to the north. Skies have been sunny all day here, but the temp on my weatherbug has dropped about 2 degrees in the past 30 mins or so. From the radar, looks like a front came through and is advancing SE of the metroplex. I'm guessing that's what the SW/NE oriented blueish line is.

[gboudx]

Radar returns along the Red River appearing on the DFW and OKC radars. Anyone up that way confirm what p-type it is, and if it's reaching the ground?

Cloud deck is around 10kft with a 12 dewpoint on the surface. Its not reaching.

Hey, it's good to see a local DFW pro posting. Got any thoughts you can share for next Tuesday/Wed?

[rhoby13]

Bob Rose's Weather Update:


Snow Developing Friday, Accumulations Generally Around One-Half Inch - Thu. 12/3/2009
Greetings. Here is an update on the winter weather expected across our region on Friday. This morning's forecast data continues to show a good chance for snow across the entire region on Friday. However, the latest data indicates snowfall accumulations may be a little lower across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions than were forecast earlier due to the lack of significant moisture. With the temperature at the surface forecast to stay above freezing, ice is not expected. This should mainly be a snow event. The snow that falls will likely melt into liquid on most roads and hard surfaces with some accumulation grassy surfaces. The threat for snow will end from west to east Friday evening as the upper low quickly exits to the east. A hard freeze will develop across a large part of the region Friday night into Saturday as the sky clears.

Today's weather maps show a vigorous trough in the upper atmosphere located over Colorado, moving to the south. Ahead of the trough, a weak area of moisture is returning north across the Rio Grande Plains, resulting in a cloudy sky across much of South Texas and portions of the Hill Country. These clouds will likely spread east across the entire region this afternoon and evening. I don't expect any widespread precipitation overnight but some light snow flurries will be possible across the western and northern Hill Country by sunrise. Tonight's low temperature will include the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid 30s across Central Texas and the upper 30s towards the coast.

The upper trough over Mexico is forecast to track across east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday into Friday evening. Precipitation will likely develop along and near the path of the upper low. But it should be noted that most of today's forecast data indicates there will be less available moisture in place across the Hill Country and Central Texas than was previously forecast. As a result, snowfall accumulations are now looking to be a little less than were forecast on Wednesday. Snow flurries look to increase across the Hill Country region shortly after daybreak Friday morning. The flurries will then spread east across the Central Texas region beginning about late morning. Because most of the lower atmosphere will be below freezing, the precipitation should be all snow and not sleet or rain. But also note that the temperature at the surface will be above freezing. Friday's temperature will hold fairly steady, mostly in the middle 30s. This means that the snow will melt when reaches the ground and the ground will become wet. Snow will accumulate mainly on some of the grassy surfaces. Again, because the air temperature will be above freezing, I don't expect the development of ice. For most areas across the Hill Country and Central Texas, I expect snowfall accumulations will be between 1/2 and 1 inch, with isolated totals of around 2 inches.

For areas from about Fayette County and south to the coast, more atmospheric moisture looks to be in place and this could lead to more precipitation. Rain showers will develop Friday morning into early afternoon, with the precipitation changing over the mostly all snow in the afternoon. Here, the temperature will hold steady in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are forecast, with isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches possible across parts of Colorado and Wharton Counties.

The threat for snow will end from west to east Friday evening as the upper low exits to the east. The snow should end across the Hill Country late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. It should end across the Austin and Central Texas region by about 9 pm and across the coastal plains region by about midnight. One small concern I have is any residual wetness on the ground from melted snow could become frozen Friday night when the temperature falls below freezing. This will mainly be a concern for overpasses and flyovers. I expect the temperature will fall below freezing across the Hill Country shortly after sunset and across the Central Texas region around 9 pm or so. Towards the coast, I expect the temperature will fall below freezing just before midnight. The sky will clear from west to east Friday night, setting us up for a very cold night. It now looks like we could see a hard freeze even into parts of the coastal plains. Lows Saturday morning will include the upper teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s across the Austin and Central Texas region and the upper 20s to 30 degrees towards the coast. Saturday's weather will be sunny and warmer with a high in the low and mid 50s. It won't be nearly as cold Saturday night. Lows Sunday morning will be mostly in the mid to upper 30s. A weak wave of low pressure moving across Texas will cause a few showers on Sunday. Sunday's high temperature will be in the low and middle 50s.

I want to point out that the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Central Texas and parts of the Hill Country on Friday between 6 am and 6 pm due to the anticipated snow showers. I will have more details on this event Friday morning.

Bob

[jasons2k]

Speaking of seasons, now this is more like it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
232 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...EARLY WINTER SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...

[Portastorm]

For those of you who don't know who Bob Rose is ... Bob's a longtime meteorologist in central Texas who worked broadcast meteorology for a number of years and has been working for the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) for at least a decade it seems if not more. He's a very good forecaster and not prone to hype or hyperbole. He's an Aggie but I try to not hold that against him.

Bob also did an online chat earlier today about the possibility of snow in our (Austin) area and it can be found online at the Austin American-Statesman website.

[JenBayles]

For those of you who don't know who Bob Rose is ... Bob's a longtime meteorologist in central Texas who worked broadcast meteorology for a number of years and has been working for the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) for at least a decade it seems if not more. He's a very good forecaster and not prone to hype or hyperbole. He's an Aggie but I try to not hold that against him.

Bob also did an online chat earlier today about the possibility of snow in our (Austin) area and it can be found online at the Austin American-Statesman website.

That was an outstanding forecast discussion. I really appreciate that it was his analysis without the heavy reliance on model analysis. Please post more of his work please! :-D

[joshskeety]

Btw guys.. I live in Tuscola.. Home of Colt McCoy and Jim Ned High School.. Town of 450 people and 1 stop light.. hahahaha

Soon it will be the home of the Heisman Trophy and National Championship QB.. (I pray..)

But, speaking of sports.. Cowboys in NY and the 18z NAM finally shows this Low going up the EC dumping 5-7 inches before the game.. I was hoping it would snow DURING the game because advantage Cowboys big time with the better running game..

I WANT 9-3!!!

Anyhow.. Quick Abilene update.. Radar hits up north, but dewpoint is 17 degrees and temp is 37 degrees.. NONE of that is reaching the ground.. TOTAL VIRGA ALERT!

Anyhow.. Im going against the grain here, Im not sure what weather models they are looking at, but seems SJT is switching gears from their MISS 2 days ago.. They say we are going to get an inch of snow and put advisories up.. I can't find ONE model that agrees with them.. I see MAYBE snow flurries for the ENTIRE area.. This is shaping up to be West Texas' best Virga storm of all time... Hope Im wrong though, but I wasn't about the last storm and probably not this storm..

[CaptinCrunch]

Snow has been removed for the DFW area, temps adjusted up as well to the lower 40's. Never jump on the snow train till it has left the station...lol

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Snow has been removed for the DFW area, temps adjusted up as well to the lower 40's. Never jump on the snow train till it has left the station...lol

That probably means that we will get a foot of snow here then!! lol

[cheezyWXguy]

Well according to the wunderground radar, the precip near the red river is actually reaching the ground right now. Its very light, if really getting to the ground, but its a start I suppose.

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.corad.org/texas_radar.htm
Please Follow link shows current radar... Yes, the precip may be light but theres conformation that its reaching the ground

[srainhoutx]

I see no reports of snow other than Guadalupe Pass and higher elevations in N MX via TAF sites. A lot of Virga at this time. Trends are still looking like a Panhandle thru S Central and SE TX event. Coastal Low/Trough will be the fly in the ointment IMHO.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our local met over here said this evening that the trough although strong will race across the south way before the gulf low forms and keep us a lot drier with maybe some light flurries. Also the low will stay further south in the gulf and that will keep moisture from making it north as well. Did say IF the two were to merge into LA at the same time then we would get snow like last year, but that will not happen this time. Don't put much faith into this because they said the same last year only saying we would get a light mix with flurries and we woke up to 3 inches of snow on the ground. What did your guys over in Houston say tonight?

[serenata09]

In downtown Dallas temps are slowly falling and dewpoints steadily rising. Humidity also on the rise again.

38.3 degrees now.