Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM rolling in..The trend colder continues out to 12 hours.

[Ivanhater]

[Sean in New Orleans]

Wow....I can't believe we could be having a snowstorm the first week of December down here. That's amazing. I don't see how we can build this playground on Saturday in Lakeview if we are going to have snow. It would just be really difficult. I know many want it to snow, but, I hope it passes us this go around. We've got all of our supplies and mulch already out there with KABOOM.

[TideJoe]

Wow....I can't believe we could be having a snowstorm the first week of December down here. That's amazing. I don't see how we can build this playground on Saturday in Lakeview if we are going to have snow. It would just be really difficult. I know many want it to snow, but, I hope it passes us this go around. We've got all of our supplies and mulch already out there with KABOOM.

Even if you get 2 or 3 inches it will melt very quickly. I'd go ahead with your building plans regardless of the snow.

[SunnyThoughts]

Colder most definitely works. Im looking through some other winter weather boards on the net, some mets are saying the NAM is under performing ATT in Texas, and that the QPF is too low, I know that QPF represents the amount of precipitation, but what is ATT?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ivanhater, could you please give the times when the models come out throughout the day? Just can't remember. Thanks.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, could you please give the times when the models come out throughout the day? Just can't remember. Thanks.

Nam starts out first at 8 pm then 2 am then 8 am then 2pm. GFS about an hour after the NAM

[Dean4Storms]

Ivanhater, could you please give the times when the models come out throughout the day? Just can't remember. Thanks.

Nam starts out first at 8 pm then 2 am then 8 am then 2pm. GFS about an hour after the NAM

Ivanhater, looks like we could see a change over down here along the coast even if the NAM verifies. Are you seeing the same thing??

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, could you please give the times when the models come out throughout the day? Just can't remember. Thanks.

Nam starts out first at 8 pm then 2 am then 8 am then 2pm. GFS about an hour after the NAM

Ivanhater, looks like we could see a change over down here along the coast even if the NAM verifies. Are you seeing the same thing??

Yeah Dean. Like I mentioned before the models have been bad on the thermo aspect. Today's high for instance was supposed to be around 60, some areas didn't get out of the 40s.

During the day tomorrow, it will be time to see how the low develops and tracks in the western gulf , also how the snow takes shape around Houston.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Ivanhater. Do you guys see the northern gulf coast (from over here to you guys) possibly getting more out of this than was forecast earlier today with the newer models coming out.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, I would think if the Houston area gets snow and especially any points south of it that it would translate into snow reaching closer to the Gulf coast over here. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Brent]

Friday Night...Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Saturday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow in the morning...then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yea, I would think if the Houston area gets snow and especially any points south of it that it would translate into snow reaching closer to the Gulf coast over here. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

Thanks Dean. So obviously we need to watch and see what happens over in Houston tomorrow. And of course hope they get the snow forecast and more then it shifts over to us.

[Jag95]

The biggest negative I see is that the temps at the mid-levels are warmer than those at 850 mb, especially as you move east (if I'm reading this correctly). Hopefully this will be a little off target - it's happened befoer. Either way, it'll be a close call for us in the Alabama, NW FL areas. That NAM really looks good for SW MS/ SE LA though.

<edit> As soon as I post that, the NWS office changes the Mobile forecast from a rain/sleet mix to rain/snow.

[SunnyThoughts]

The 00z GFS not looking quite as much widespread precipitation is it Ivan? IF Im looking at it correctly anyway. OH well, By tomorrow afternoon we can watch radars and see how everything unfolds.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is HORRIBLE. Barely any snow even in Houston. I have serious doubts about this storm. It's gonna be extremely borderline with high bust potential. The NAM is much better, but it's the NAM.

[Ivanhater]

The 0z GFS is HORRIBLE. Barely any snow even in Houston. I have serious doubts about this storm. It's gonna be extremely borderline with high bust potential. The NAM is much better, but it's the NAM.

From what I'm hearing Brent, the GFS has not been handling this storm well at all, even what is happening now. The NAM has been doing the best job so far and is also the model of choice from the NWS.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well I did see where the NWS now has Mobile with Rain/Snow after midnight as opposed to rain/sleet. Thats definitely good news.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is HORRIBLE. Barely any snow even in Houston. I have serious doubts about this storm. It's gonna be extremely borderline with high bust potential. The NAM is much better, but it's the NAM.

From what I'm hearing Brent, the GFS has not been handling this storm well at all, even what is happening now. The NAM has been doing the best job so far and is also the model of choice from the NWS.

I hope the NAM is right but I just dunno. This is gonna be a close call even up here.

[Ivanhater]

Well I did see where the NWS now has Mobile with Rain/Snow after midnight as opposed to rain/sleet. Thats definitely good news.

Even parts of Florida have an 80 percent of Rain/Snow

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1