Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not around here. They religiously stick to the GFS unless it is just something crazy. Houston is going with the NAM. They are really starting to get serious over there. So is Lake Charles. I guess Baton Rouge/N.O. can't be far behind. Just don't see how they can ignore the NAM and what is going on west of us. BTW still only saying an inch of snow tomorrow night. Not even getting below freezing.

[PTPatrick]

For what its worth, the NAM is what nailed the freak early snow this time down there last year. Also, GFS has been a little sucky of late. I think this airmass, at least for Denver has proven a little colder than models anticipated even 2-3 days ago. We will almost surely go below zero tonight in Denver...its already 4, and this is the airmass headed your way. So in short, I think its quite possible and the NAM supports snow even over into MObile now. Also much more precip too. I know we have 2 models moving opposite directions now...so take it as you well. Truth is...you really do never know with these gulf coast storms til they are there.

NAM would tend to have highest amounts from Baton Rouge eastward up to McComb, MS toward hattiesbug. North of I-10 in that area I would think 3-4 inches will be highly possible. East of Slidell toward Pascagoula and MObile probably more like 2-3. And while the NWS wont say it, models support snow for the city of NOLA and most of souteastrn LA, which wil likely be a dusting...ALL only if nam plays out.

[Ivanhater]

The models, even the NAM are having trouble with the airmass coming down. Even the new runs are too warm.

.DISCUSSION...
PER SFC ANALYSIS THE SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR NOW APPEARS TO
BE SPREADING INTO SE TX. VERY DRY/COLD AIRMASS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND WEST TX AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PANHANDLE. 850 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS ALREADY LINED UP ALONG I-10...
WITH LCH SHOWING A TEMP OF ZERO AND DRT SHOWING A TEMP OF -2.
THIS IS ACTUALLY A BIT COLDER THAN THE 00Z NAM INITIALIZED.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So I guess that means it could actually get a little colder earlier tomorrow before the precip moves in?

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-041200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
1006 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS COLD ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LASTING ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS.

THE SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 10 PM FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
SOUTHWEST...AND QUICKLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH SUNRISE. THE SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
AROUND 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST.

THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ROUGHLY A 25 TO 50 MILE WIDE
AREA FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO CLANTON...TO WEDOWEE WHERE SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL
OTHER AREAS WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW OR
LESS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TROY TO AUBURN WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE ALL RAIN.

SOIL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE...MELTING
ANY SNOW THAT DOES STICK. THEREFORE...SNOW WILL GENERALLY COLLECT
ONLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES FOR A RATHER SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

AS WITH ANY WINTER WEATHER SITUATION...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FURTHER
FORECAST AND STATEMENTS AND BE PREPARED IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY.

$$

[timNms]

timNms: I was living in Kentucky at the time. We got about 20 inches of snow with high winds nothing like this will be lol.

Yep, that was a lot more than our 9". But we did have thundersnow here. I remember it was misty all day and cold. I was cutting firewood (at the time we lived in an OLD house with a fireplace). Before dark that evening, it began to sleet, then started snowing. Local weather guys kept saying "No accumulation because the ground is too warm". (This was in March and we'd had quite a warm week before). Good thing the ground was warm or we'd still be digging out from it LOL. We even had snow drifts.

[timNms]

Wow, it got awfully quiet on here for such a rare winter storm to be just a day away. Anyway I know this has been asked millions of times but I am suffering from mild alzheimers tonight When does the next set of model runs come out? I can't remeber to save my life. Just give me the four times throughout the day to make it easier. Thanks.

I'm pretty excited. I'm in south central MS and the NWS is saying we could see 1-3" tomorrow night. I think I'm going to chill in the hot tub and watch the snow with the Mrs and then play in the morning with my young'n.

They're saying 1-3" for us here, as well. Hope this isn't one of those times they hype it up and nothing happens.

[timNms]

Well, they've changed the forcast. Only calling for accumulations of 1 inch or less now. By the the 3:30 pm discussion, we may only get to see flurries

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't understand what has changed. BTR discussion says lack of moisture. Not sure what model they are going by because from what i've seen they show a good bit of moisture along the coast. Here is part of our discussion....

SHORT TERM...
MOSAIC RADAR ECHOES SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT THINGS SHOULD
LOOK LIKE WHEN THE SNOW STARTS THIS EVENING. BASICALLY...SNOW
STREAKS OF 20 TO 30DB RETURNS. SOME AREAS WHERE RADAR ECHOES ARE
FINDING THE MELTING LAYER...WE SHOULD SEE RETURNS AS HIGH AS 45DB.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER RETURNS. AM
HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE ANY HIGH
AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION. QPF IS OBVIOUSLY HIGHER OVER THE
SOUHTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NAMELY THE SOUTH SHORE AND A VERY THIN
STRETCH OF THE NORTH SHORE AND MISS GULF COAST. BUT THIS IS ALSO
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE FOR A WINTRY MIX AT BEST. A
MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD MELT WHAT SNOW MIXES IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HAVE SEARCHED FOR A REASON TO GET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES BUT CAME UP SHORT. A WINTER
STORM WARNING REQUIRES 2" OR MORE WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WHAT WE
ARE SHOWING IS A MAX OF 1.5" AT BEST AND THAT WOULD HAVE TO FALL
UNDER A STRONG PERSISTANT SNOW STREAK. HAVE LEFT THIS NUMBER IN
THE GRIDS AND TEXT THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE THIS DOES OCCUR...BUT
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE ADVISORY SHOULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH. ST
TAMMANY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF MISS WILL BE LEFT IN THE
ADVISORY AS WELL MAINLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THOSE AREAS. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
SOME SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS BY EARLY SAT MORNING JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE HIGHER ACCUMULATION NUMBERS WEST OF THE AREA
WHICH LOWER AS THE CAUSAL FEATURE APPROACHES AND DRIES OUT.

[timNms]

Here's what Jackson has to say:

SHORT TERM
THE HOPE IN ARRIVING TONIGHT WAS FOR SOME CONSISTENCY
IN THE FORECAST GUID WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SMOOTH TRANSITION INTO
THIS EVENT. I SHOULD HAVE KNOW THAT IS NEVER THE CASE AND BASICALLY
THAT IS HOW THINGS ARE NOW. THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT TONIGHT. A LOT MORE QUESTION MARKS HAVE
RETURNED AS THE TREND WITH ALL OF THE GUID WAS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW
AMOUNTS THUS BACKING OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT ALL FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS BASICALLY THE SAME WITH WHAT HAS BEEN
DISCUSSED IN PREV FORECASTS. WE HAVE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NW WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR STEADILY BUILDING 1022-1025MB PRESSURE INTO
THE REGION. THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD WITH
MANY TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE PLAINS NEAR THE CORE OF
THIS AIRMASS. TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING HAVE NOT ACHIEVED
POTENTIAL LOWS THANKS TO SOME PESKY LOW CLOUDS AND A NICE VAIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE DRIVING
FEATURE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG S/W DROPPING TROUGH THE BASE
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL SEEN SOLID HEIGHT FALLS OUR WAY.
THERE WILL BE A SFC LOW TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE N GULF WHICH WILL
DEEPEN AND TRACK NE THROUGH THE N GULF AS THE S/W PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE...WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
BREAK OUT AS STRONG ASCENT UTILIZES THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
LATEST GUID IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE BEST LIFT WHICH IS PRIMARILY
FOCUSED BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRIMARY TIME
FOR ANY SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 7PM AND 2AM TONIGHT. ONE REASON GUID HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNTS IS DUE TO THE GULF LOW BEING A BIT FURTHER
S/SE. ALSO...I THINK THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME DRIER AIR AT AND BELOW 850MB WHICH WILL HELP
TO EVAP A LOT OF THE FALLING PRECIP/SNOW. ALSO...THE PRIMARY LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT OR ABV 600MB...SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT. THE LIFT WILL BE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC
GROWTH AREA FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION...BUT THE FALLING SNOW
WILL FIGHT THE BATTLE IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMS AND
ULTIMATELY...ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL SUFFER. THIS IS
ALL SUPPORTED THE LATEST GUID WHICH HAS DRAMATICALLY BACKED OFF ON
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING >1 IN AND EVEN BACKED OFF ON SEEING
MEASURABLE SNOW.

[TideJoe]

Well, they've changed the forcast. Only calling for accumulations of 1 inch or less now. By the the 3:30 pm discussion, we may only get to see flurries

Yep, starting to look like a bust.

[Lowpressure]

Alexandria, LA area still going with a Winter Storm Warning with 1-3 inches of snow possible.

[Lowpressure]

NWS Houston area calling for 3-4 in some spots. Not a bust yet. These deep south winter storm scenarios are often very complex and can surprise you, as recently as last year. Confidence seems high in regards to some snowfall occuring, QPF and mid level thermal structure is the variable here, as is high surface temps.

435 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN ACCUMULATING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCH WILL BE
COMMONPLACE WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON GALVESTON ISLAND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS.

[Dionne]

NWS JAN 4 AM......a winter storm watch is no longer in effect....a winter weather advisory for snow is in effect from 6 PM tonight until 6 AM Saturday.

Sunrise this morning....rural Copiah county....37F.

[Agua]

Im trying so hard not to jinx this but I cant help it

Congrats!

[PTrackerLA]

The NWS Slidell has backed off their forecast some, only calling for an inch or less in Baton Rouge and maybe not even a wintry mix for the New Orleans metro. I don't understand why they have changed their tune so much given that the models really don't look any warmer than they were yesterday afternoon and the 0c 850mb line is even further south on the latest GFS and NAM. Definitely think most of the state will see at least flakes flying giving that the snow has already started in Houston.

[TideJoe]

The NWS Slidell has backed off their forecast some, only calling for an inch or less in Baton Rouge and maybe not even a wintry mix for the New Orleans metro. I don't understand why they have changed their tune so much given that the models really don't look any warmer than they were yesterday afternoon and the 0c 850mb line is even further south on the latest GFS and NAM. Definitely think most of the state will see at least flakes flying giving that the snow has already started in Houston.

I think the cold air isn't the problem..... it starting to look like the low isn't going to be as strong (less moisture).

[Agua]

The NWS Slidell has backed off their forecast some, only calling for an inch or less in Baton Rouge and maybe not even a wintry mix for the New Orleans metro. I don't understand why they have changed their tune so much given that the models really don't look any warmer than they were yesterday afternoon and the 0c 850mb line is even further south on the latest GFS and NAM. Definitely think most of the state will see at least flakes flying giving that the snow has already started in Houston.

I think the cold air isn't the problem..... it starting to look like the low isn't going to be as strong (less moisture).

That's what Jackson NWS says; or if I'm understanding correctly, the low is further south and southeast than they anticipated. It will provide less moisture in the areas most conducive to accumulation.

[TideJoe]

The NWS Slidell has backed off their forecast some, only calling for an inch or less in Baton Rouge and maybe not even a wintry mix for the New Orleans metro. I don't understand why they have changed their tune so much given that the models really don't look any warmer than they were yesterday afternoon and the 0c 850mb line is even further south on the latest GFS and NAM. Definitely think most of the state will see at least flakes flying giving that the snow has already started in Houston.

I think the cold air isn't the problem..... it starting to look like the low isn't going to be as strong (less moisture).

That's what Jackson NWS says; or if I'm understanding correctly, the low is further south and southeast than they anticipated. It will provide less moisture in the areas most conducive to accumulation.

That's my understanding. I still think they have very little confidence in the forecast (the NAM is back on the snow train) and things could change but I wouldn't expect much. I do remember that snow we got in January of 2008 though...... it was very similar to this where they said we'd be lucky to get an inch and a lot of areas in the Pine Belt got 3.

[Dionne]

NWS JAN is still saying "snow likely". 70% chance tonight. It's only warmed 3 degrees since sunrise.