SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[southerngale]

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER 2
INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

LOL!! This is too funny, 2 inches of snow will make travel impossible? Up here, that is a typical winter day and no one would notice any difference! Bulletins on deep south US snow events are always fun to read.

I find it amusing though the deep south is getting accumulative snow before we are, very strange! Must be the moderate El Nino at work...

I figured you northerners would get a kick out of the criteria down here. We're not equipped to deal with winter weather... it doesn't happen very often (well, until recently. lol) - whatever y'all have up there to help handle any winter weather, whether it be snow plows from the city, your own snow blower, snow tires, etc. - we ain't got squat! So we cancel everything and stay home.

[vbhoutex]

Meanwhile we have virga beginning to show up on HGX radar. That means the atmosphere is definitely moistening up. I wouldn't be betting against someone if they told me a good solid 4 " is possible in some areas of the metro with some areas under heavy bands heading up to 6". A good solid 2" seems like a viable prediction for most of the area except the immediate coast.

[southerngale]

I don't have the link, but the 0Z Euro is apparently quite a bit wetter than the 12Z.

[Duddy]

I don't have the link, but the 0Z Euro is apparently quite a bit wetter than the 12Z.

Where? Link?

[southerngale]

In addition to the Winter Storm Warning, a Hard Freeze Warning has just been issued here as well. Brrrr.

Hard Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
234 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON...

.A VERY COLD AMARILLO HIGH WILL TRAVEL SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...A GULF COAST LOW WILL
FORM JUST SOUTHEAST BROWNSVILLE BEFORE TRAVELING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO WEATHER
FEATURES...BRISK CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-042100-
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0003.091205T0600Z-091205T1300Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
234 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
CST SATURDAY.

SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT...LASTING
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Edited to add updated Winter Storm Warning

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
323 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...AN UNUSUAL EARLY WINTER SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.A VERY COLD AMARILLO HIGH WILL TRAVEL SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...A GULF COAST LOW WILL
FORM JUST SOUTHEAST BROWNSVILLE BEFORE TRAVELING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO WEATHER
FEATURES...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SURFACE.

FURTHER-UP...AN INTENSE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE PHASING IN OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT ATTENDING THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH CYCLONIC LIFT
ATTENDING THE TRAVELING GULF COAST LOW...WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION BY MIDAFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL END...FROM WEST TO EAST...BEFORE SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY.

TXZ180>182-201-042100-
/O.EXT.KLCH.WS.W.0001.091204T1800Z-091205T0600Z/
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
323 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THE
SATURDAY SUNRISE. THUS...ANY REMAINING SNOW OR MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FREEZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD...
CREATING AREAS OF POORLY-VISIBLE BLACK ICE.

MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER
2 INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[Air Force Met]

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER 2
INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

LOL!! This is too funny, 2 inches of snow will make travel impossible? Up here, that is a typical winter day and no one would notice any difference! Bulletins on deep south US snow events are always fun to read.

I find it amusing though the deep south is getting accumulative snow before we are, very strange! Must be the moderate El Nino at work...

Well...up there people fall over and die when the mercury hits 95! That's a cool day for us...let's us get the old folks out for a stroll.

Everyone has their Achilles heal.

[iorange55]

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER 2
INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

LOL!! This is too funny, 2 inches of snow will make travel impossible? Up here, that is a typical winter day and no one would notice any difference! Bulletins on deep south US snow events are always fun to read.

I find it amusing though the deep south is getting accumulative snow before we are, very strange! Must be the moderate El Nino at work...

Well...up there people fall over and die when the mercury hits 95! That's a cool day for us...let's us get the old folks out for a stroll.

Everyone has their Achilles heal.

lol, so a northern discussion would be something like this


Heat Advisory will be issued today the temperature is expected to rise to 90F today with a heat index from 93-95
Please be careful out there if you have to get out in this be sure to bring ice packs, and little hand held fans. Make sure you have extra batteries for them because they will go out. We just talked to the department store, and they're already running out, so please stay inside folks, if you go out there is possibly a chance you could melt. Yes right when the sun hits you, you might melt, or even worse you might sweat! All schools are canceled, and the red cross is handing out free popsicles. Be safe out there folks.

[wxman57]

A WSW for 1.5-2" of snow that won't even stick to the road? C'mon.

Having lived in Charleston, SC for a few years, I do know how the South freaks out when there is even a thought of snow. People stock up on food and are afraid to drive. C'mon South! Act like you've done this before.

(Hope you guys do get some white stuff!)

I've always thought of Charleston as being "up north".

[wxman57]

A WSW for 1.5-2" of snow that won't even stick to the road? C'mon.

Having lived in Charleston, SC for a few years, I do know how the South freaks out when there is even a thought of snow. People stock up on food and are afraid to drive. C'mon South! Act like you've done this before.

(Hope you guys do get some white stuff!)

I've always thought of Charleston as being "up north", having never lived north of 30N (south if I-10).

[weatherguy425]

wxman57- do you think temps aren't dropping as fast as thought?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman57, if you don't mind sharing what are your early morning thoughts of this potential storm from Houston over towards SE LA for today and tonight? Has your opinion changed any from this time yesterday? Thanks.

[wxgirl69]

Does anybody know the current temp for houston right now.

[weatherguy425]

42F at the airport

[Air Force Met]

wxman57- do you think temps aren't dropping as fast as thought?

I'll chime in...then I'm headed to work.

I have noticed that. Seems they are about 3 degrees warmer than they were supposed to be. Think this is due to the thick cloud cover that developed around sunset last night. Even though we have CAA going on...we didn't radiate as much heat out as we could have. Perfect scenario would have been clear skies most of the night then thickening early morning.

So...my thinking is it will take a little longer for the change-over...which would lead to less accumulation. Of course...if enough dry air can filter in hear...evaporative cooling will cancel that as an issue.

[cycloneye]

Umm,changing tunes here in this article at Houston Chronicle.

Chance of snow Friday is up in the air

By ERIC BERGER Houston Chronicle

Here comes the chilly weather Please be kind to your local forecasters. They'd very much like to definitively say it will snow Friday.

But Friday's forecast is as slippery as the bottom of Clark Griswold's sled in National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation.

To get snow in our typically tropical clime the timing must be just right, with cold air arriving at the same time as atmospheric moisture. It seems plausible this will happen Friday afternoon.

The National Weather Service says much of the area could get from a trace to an inch of snow.

But Houston only sees snow, on average, about every four years. And never this early in the season: Friday's, if it comes, would be the earliest snowfall ever in Houston, beating the record tied last year by six days. So forecasters like Fred Schmude, of ImpactWeather, are wary.

“Most of our forecasting data is caught right in the middle, meaning any subtle change in the position of the upper level disturbance will have huge consequences on how much, if any, snow falls across the Greater Houston area,” he said.

Accuweather.com's Joe Bastardi said most Houstonians should expect to at least see snowflakes in the air. But weather, he admitted, is weather.

“What I get concerned about is that if the snow stops 10 miles northwest of Houston,” he said. “Then everyone thinks we're idiots.”

[Air Force Met]

Umm,changing tunes here in this article at Houston Chronicle.

Chance of snow Friday is up in the air

By ERIC BERGER Houston Chronicle

Here comes the chilly weather Please be kind to your local forecasters. They'd very much like to definitively say it will snow Friday.

But Friday's forecast is as slippery as the bottom of Clark Griswold's sled in National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation.

To get snow in our typically tropical clime the timing must be just right, with cold air arriving at the same time as atmospheric moisture. It seems plausible this will happen Friday afternoon.

The National Weather Service says much of the area could get from a trace to an inch of snow.

But Houston only sees snow, on average, about every four years. And never this early in the season: Friday's, if it comes, would be the earliest snowfall ever in Houston, beating the record tied last year by six days. So forecasters like Fred Schmude, of ImpactWeather, are wary.

“Most of our forecasting data is caught right in the middle, meaning any subtle change in the position of the upper level disturbance will have huge consequences on how much, if any, snow falls across the Greater Houston area,” he said.

Accuweather.com's Joe Bastardi said most Houstonians should expect to at least see snowflakes in the air. But weather, he admitted, is weather.

“What I get concerned about is that if the snow stops 10 miles northwest of Houston,” he said. “Then everyone thinks we're idiots.”

That's an old article. I actually read it in the paper a couple of days ago...think it was Wednesday's?

[Air Force Met]

lol, so a northern discussion would be something like this


Heat Advisory will be issued today the temperature is expected to rise to 90F today with a heat index from 93-95
Please be careful out there if you have to get out in this be sure to bring ice packs, and little hand held fans. Make sure you have extra batteries for them because they will go out. We just talked to the department store, and they're already running out, so please stay inside folks, if you go out there is possibly a chance you could melt. Yes right when the sun hits you, you might melt, or even worse you might sweat! All schools are canceled, and the red cross is handing out free popsicles. Be safe out there folks.

That about sums it up. During the great heat waves when dozens or hundreds die up north from what we get for 3 months straight...we just shake our heads.

Its all what you are used to.

[cycloneye]

That's an old article. I actually read it in the paper a couple of days ago...think it was Wednesday's?

Yup, I found out its from wednesday.But I wanted to highlight the comments from Bastardi that are comical.

[KatDaddy]

And now the hour-by-hour watch begins. Will the perfect alignment occur as models have been forecasting for days? We shall see.

[wxman57]

One thing that bothers me is the relatively high dew points across the area (28-30F). Once the precip starts, the temp will drop to the wet bulb temp, between the temp and dew point. With the dew point so high, that wet bulb temp will be in the 35-36 range. This would keep surface temps a little warmer, and the changeover from rain to snow may be delayed a few hours (1pm-3pm vs. 11am to noon). That would give us only 3-4 hours of snow. RUC still has the atmosphere above Houston above freezing up to over 3000 ft, too. But colder air continues to flow in from the north, and the freezing line will drop through the day.