Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[brunota2003]

Why is it now freezing rain with only a few flakes in Bear Creek? I thought it was supposed be all snow?!

You probably had a shallow warm layer (warm tongue) of air move overhead. Freezing rain is typically snow that melts as it comes down and doesn't have time to refreeze before coming in contact with the ground, but the surface is plenty cold for it to freeze (obviously, otherwise it wouldnt be freezing rain! )

[JenBayles]

Why is it now freezing rain with only a few flakes in Bear Creek? I thought it was supposed be all snow?!

You probably had a shallow warm layer (warm tongue) of air move overhead. Freezing rain is typically snow that melts as it comes down and doesn't have time to refreeze before coming in contact with the ground, but the surface is plenty cold for it to freeze (obviously, otherwise it wouldnt be freezing rain! )

Speaking of "warm tongues" as I was reading your post I just got one in the ear from my dog.

Dave's off to the hospital to pick up Mom, so we'll have another traffic report when he returns. Everyone who is home now is outside playing with kids and dogs and taking pictures. Quite the historic day here in Houston.

[JenBayles]

Snow is all done now and the sun is peeking through the clouds. Nice snow event while it lasted, and I'm glad we can now hole up inside by the fireplace. Dave said traffic wasn't bad at all coming back from Memorial City. Looks like everyone left work early - at the height of the storm.

[r22weiss]

measured .5 inches of snow at the house in Katy. Sounds like accumulations were .5- 4 inches over the area. GFS did a great job with this event and was so consistant!!

[lebron23]

1.5

[southerngale]

measured .5 inches of snow at the house in Katy. Sounds like accumulations were .5- 4 inches over the area. GFS did a great job with this event and was so consistant!!

Amazing consistency all week... I'm impressed.

[jeff]

3.1 inches at the house in Richmond, TX...still a good 1 on the gorund and now below freezing. Looks like about .37 of liquid in the gage out back..still letting it melt some more. Very impressive day indeed and hats off tot he GFS which nailed it...location and everything...was a little high on QPF and surface was a tad warmer...but great job by that model

[attallaman]

My light snow which started about 30 minutes ago has now changed to moderate to heavy rain.

[ROCK]

close to 3 here in Pearland...still got some out there with the temp falling like a rock. Down to 32F so I expect some semi-icy road in the am. That is of course what doesnt evap.

Nice call Jeff on this system btw....enjoyed your updates. I have some great pics...

[attallaman]

My light snow has since ended, heavy rain a few minutes ago has for the moment also ended, the bulk of the snow in my state is to my north. Weather radar image link below is courtesy of WWL-TV4.com, NOLA.


http://www.wwltv.com/weather/radar?rada ... f=breaking

[hb905]

when does it look like the next winter weather event will be here in north texas?

[Ntxw]

The models don't show anything in the foreseeable future currently. There was potential earlier for Tues-Thurs time frame but the models have shifted the low north into Oklahoma and Kansas. They aren't handling the next cold airmass very well atm so we'll have to wait and see

[snow and ice]

The models don't show anything in the foreseeable future currently. There was potential earlier for Tues-Thurs time frame but the models have shifted the low north into Oklahoma and Kansas. They aren't handling the next cold airmass very well atm so we'll have to wait and see

Yeah, the last 4 runs of the GFS have trended north into the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas. By the end of this weekend,the models should have a good grasp on the general track.

However, if this next storm does stay to the north of Texas, particularly the Austin area, I do have a solution for the residents in Austin, one in particular. See link below for the solution.
http://www.snowstormsnowmaking.com/

[Portastorm]

The models don't show anything in the foreseeable future currently. There was potential earlier for Tues-Thurs time frame but the models have shifted the low north into Oklahoma and Kansas. They aren't handling the next cold airmass very well atm so we'll have to wait and see

Yeah, the last 4 runs of the GFS have trended north into the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas. By the end of this weekend,the models should have a good grasp on the general track.

However, if this next storm does stay to the north of Texas, particularly the Austin area, I do have a solution for the residents in Austin, one in particular. See link below for the solution.
http://www.snowstormsnowmaking.com/

Now you're talking! A guaranteed snow event every time ... I like it!!

[srainhoutx]

Well we got a snow event. Pretty amazing to watch events unfold via guidance and see the GFS nail the snow we saw a week out. Amazing coup for that model. Now what is ahead? Guidance suggests that we are again going to head into a bit of a pattern change. Appears that a more zonal flow will take place across the CONUS. All the cold air will be bottled up to our N. A split flow will likely setup as Pacific moisture will hit the CA coast, flooding warmer air and a rather stormy pattern across the middle of the Country. Now what will it that mean regarding the future? We will likely see some rather vigorous storms roll across the Northern and Central Plains laying down a lot of snow cover across Canada and the N/Central Plains into the Mid West which has been lacking so far this season. The East Coast will like see their first snow storms as well. Longer range guidance suggests that heights will again build across the Arctic and ridging along the NW Pacific allow a trough to again establish into the Plains to the East Coast. With abundant snow cover, much less modified Arctic Intrusions will occur and spill into the Eastern 2/3 of the country. The Sub Tropical Jet will remain active as well. In the short term a warm-up will happen for us as milder Pacific air spreads across the Southern tier of the country with a split flow pattern. As I see it now, we will likely see a shift back to a colder pattern around the 20th of December just in time for Christmas. We shall see. Stay tuned. Discuss away...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

Well we got a snow event. Pretty amazing to watch events unfold via guidance and see the GFS nail the snow we saw a week out. Amazing coup for that model. Now what is ahead? Guidance suggests that we are again going to head into a bit of a pattern change. Appears that a more zonal flow will take place across the CONUS. All the cold air will be bottled up to our N. A split flow will likely setup as Pacific moisture will hit the CA coast, flooding warmer air and a rather stormy pattern across the middle of the Country. Now what will it that mean regarding the future? We will likely see some rather vigorous storms roll across the Northern and Central Plains laying down a lot of snow cover across Canada and the N/Central Plains into the Mid West which has been lacking so far this season. The East Coast will like see their first snow storms as well. Longer range guidance suggests that heights will again build across the Arctic and ridging along the NW Pacific allow a trough to again establish into the Plains to the East Coast. With abundant snow cover, much less modified Arctic Intrusions will occur and spill into the Eastern 2/3 of the country. The Sub Tropical Jet will remain active as well. In the short term a warm-up will happen for us as milder Pacific air spreads across the Southern tier of the country with a split flow pattern. As I see it now, we will likely see a shift back to a colder pattern around the 20th of December just in time for Christmas. We shall see. Stay tuned. Discuss away...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good analysis Steve. I really can't add anything to yours. The 20th does seem to be the next probability of some significantly colder weather for TX or at least SE TX. White Christmas? I can dream can't I?

[brunota2003]

Record Report

Statement as of 7:12 am CST on December 05, 2009

... Record low set at Houston Intercontinental Airport...

The observed low temperature this morning at Bush Intercontinental
Airport has set a new record for this date... Dec 5th... of 26
degrees. This broke the old record of 27 degrees set which was over
a century ago in 1897.

The last time it was this cold at Bush Intercontinental Airport was
February 16th of 2007.



Where's global warming again?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Record Report

Statement as of 7:12 am CST on December 05, 2009

... Record low set at Houston Intercontinental Airport...

The observed low temperature this morning at Bush Intercontinental
Airport has set a new record for this date... Dec 5th... of 26
degrees. This broke the old record of 27 degrees set which was over
a century ago in 1897.

The last time it was this cold at Bush Intercontinental Airport was
February 16th of 2007.



Where's global warming again?

Wow, that is pretty impressive. Hard to believe IAH saw their coldest temperature in almost 3 years in EARLY DECEMBER.

[srainhoutx]

Here is a "nugget" from the HPC Final Extended Disco today...hmmm...

LONGER TERM D+8 ANOMALIES AND CORRELATIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A DOMINENT STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY IN THE BERING SEA WITH AN
EXPANSION EWD TO ANOTHER POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER GREENLAND AND
ICELAND. A BROAD AREA OF PAC NEG HT ANOMALIES DOMINATE THE ERN AND
CENTRAL PACIFIC BENEATH THE BERING SEA POSITIVE AND A MEAN TROF
PERSISTS OVER ERN CANADA.
BY D+11 THE LARGE POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER THE BERING SEA BREAKS
DOWN WITH THE MEAN POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SHIFTING EWD ALONG RIDGING
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE ERN PAC TROF DEEPENS INCREASING THE
NEG HT ANOMALY WHICH BECOMES THE MAIN NRN HEMISPHERE FEATURE. ERN
NOAM TROFINESS PERSISTS AND POSITIVE HT ANOMALIES CONTINUE IN THE
NORTH ATLC NEAR ICELAND. ALL OF THIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE GFS
ENS FORECAST OF A STRONG NEG AO/NAO AND DEVELOPING + PNA OVER NOAM
AND ARE A GOOD MATCH TO TELECONNECTIONS. PROLONGED INDICATION FOR
A WARM WET WEST COAST WITH INLAND ROCKIES RIDGING AND A COOL
EASTERN HALF OF CONUS. CONTINUED ANALOG YEARS SHOWING UP OVER THE
PAST TWO WEEKS INCLUDE 1963/1969/1977/1981/1985/1995/2002/2005.

Very interesting pattern if guidance verifies.

[Ntxw]

Those years were nice winter wise for the southern plains