Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

serenata09 · #121 Postby **serenata09** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:52 am

Looking at some DFW suburbs on NWS, we have a slight chance of rain on Sunday night with temps near freezing. Could this be something to look forward to?

iorange55 · #122 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:00 am

serenata09 wrote:Looking at some DFW suburbs on NWS, we have a slight chance of rain on Sunday night with temps near freezing. Could this be something to look forward to?

Eh not a big event if anything maybe freezing drizzle, or something. Would probably if anything just cause a few minor icy spots, could always change though.

cheezyWXguy · #123 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:13 am

Man, Im beginning to lose hope on next week. The nam is even further north with the system than the GFS. The 6z GFS was a little further south, but the 12z was back up north again.

iorange55 · #124 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:35 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:Man, Im beginning to lose hope on next week. The nam is even further north with the system than the GFS. The 6z GFS was a little further south, but the 12z was back up north again.

Yeah probably won't happen next week although i do think it'll be colder than the models show. The GFS 12 shows a storm around day 10 we'll see how that one pans out.

cheezyWXguy · #125 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:39 am

iorange55 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Man, Im beginning to lose hope on next week. The nam is even further north with the system than the GFS. The 6z GFS was a little further south, but the 12z was back up north again.

Yeah probably won't happen next week although i do think it'll be colder than the models show. The GFS 12 shows a storm around day 10 we'll see how that one pans out.

wow that is a big one for NTX. Hopefully one of the two possible events will verify.

#126 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:52 am

Euro catching on to that cutoff low also

Extremeweatherguy · #127 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:57 am

This was from the morning discussion from Norman...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEM PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. THE AIR IS NOT
TERRIBLY COLD NOW OVER CANADA... BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES THAT
CAN BE HARD TO GET RID OF ONCE THEY MOVE IN. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
GETTING BETTER HANDLING THIS STUFF... BUT STILL SEEM TO USUALLY ERR
ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SLOW TO MOVE IT IN AND TOO QUICK TO MOVE IT
OUT. ON THIS BASIS WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OR S OK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...
MORE LIKE THE ECMWF VS THE FARTHER-N OPERATIONAL GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN... AND MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS... ALSO SUPPORT A SFC LOW
A LITLE FARTHER S THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. ECMWF AT 00Z IS FARTHER
N THAN ITS 12Z RUN AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR N AND TOO STRONG. KEY
ISSUE HERE IS THAT A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD KEEP N OK ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS MAINTAIN A HIGHER CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE
WINTER PRECIP ACROSS N OK... ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND RAPID MOVEMENT LIKELY TO KEEP ANY AMOUNTS
ON THE LOW SIDE AS FAR SOUTH AS N OK... BUT MIGHT NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
S-WARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO CHANGE THAT. FARTHER S... BREEZY AND
MILDER IN THE DRY SLOT ON THE S SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS S OK AND N
TX. ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
MIDWEEK.

Extremeweatherguy · #128 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:08 pm

The Canadian High is now officially at 1059mb according to the HPC...

EDIT: Now 1061mb as of 1800z image.

iorange55 · #129 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:18 pm

Guess it'll be one of those tricky tricky tricky forecasts coming up it seems to always be tricky when talking about winter weather down here there is almost never a definite answer. But I guess that is what makes it so fun to watch.

#130 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:31 pm

Keep an eye out W along the CA/NW PAC Coast. Guidance is struggling with a very noisy pattern of warmer Pacific air that has it's orgins in the WPAC. :wink:

EDIT to add the "Big Picture WV imagery"...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

#131 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:37 pm

If anything, whether that storm effects (wintry wise) Texas and Oklahoma, it will lay down a huge swath of snow cover on the plains and midwest.

#132 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:If anything, whether that storm effects (wintry wise) Texas and Oklahoma, it will lay down a huge swath of snow cover on the plains and midwest.

Which means much less modification of cold air masses as they move our way towards TX and/or the SE.

#133 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:43 pm

Yes sir, and the storm after that one next weekend, should have more cold air to work with vs the last cutoff low middle of last week

Extremeweatherguy · #134 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 1:25 pm

That is a very good point about the snowcover. The GFS is showing another arctic airmass building in Canada by the weekend, which once it decides to come southward may be much less modified than the current one due to the snow pack that will build to our north..

12 GFS at 168 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

12 GFS at 180 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

12 GFS at 192 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

12 GFS at 204 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

12 GFS at 216 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #135 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 4:29 pm

We now officially have a 1061mb high in Canada according to the 1800z HPC surface map. It's not all that often that you see highs of that magnitude.

UPDATE: 1060mb on the 2100z map.

#136 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 4:36 pm

Wow, I wonder how cold it will really get

iorange55 · #137 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 5:46 pm

The GFS 18 is about as boring runs the GFS has showed in awhile good thing is I'm pretty sure it's wrong in a lot of things. That high is impressive I scrolled down and saw 1061 and had to look again to make sure I wasn't seeing things. I guess we'll see how fast it loses strength now.

#138 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 7:41 pm

The WFO out of New Braunfels (Austin/San Antonio) is even talking about the potential Arctic outbreak 8-9 days out due to the consistency of the last few GFS runs. They usually don't mention anything that far out.

#139 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 7:53 pm

I wouldn't blame them, that's 1061mb high as of yet

#140 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 8:45 pm

Ensembles for the first time today "hinted" that we may see a colder pattern around that time. We shall see with a few more runs. :wink:

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