Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
The 12z GFS tries to creep the weekend/early next week arctic airmass further south than the 00z run, making it into the central plains now before mysteriously having the cold air lose intensity and fizzle. This is a step in the right direction, but still not nearly as impressive as the 00z ECMWF and CMC were.
It will be interesting to see which way the models trend in the coming days.
It will be interesting to see which way the models trend in the coming days.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
EWG, all the models are struggling with many features right now. I suspect we will see many variations as things unfold. This is going to be a very wild ride after the coup of the GFS with the beginning of the pattern change noted in late November IMHO. 
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
846 AM EST MON DEC 07 2009
VALID 12Z FRI DEC 11 2009 - 12Z MON DEC 14 2009
PRELIMINARY UPDATE...
THE LAST FOUR ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRE HAVE
STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD THE TRANSPORT OF FRIGID AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 00Z/07
ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL REFLECT THIS IDEA...NOSING A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH INTO MONTANA BY MID PERIOD. THE 00Z/07 GFS WAS OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...SHOWING THE REGION TO THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN WEAK CHINOOK CONDITIONS. WENT PREDOMINATELY
WITH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...WITH A
SHIFT TOWARD THE 00Z/07 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE WAVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND THE SYSTEM SHARPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 7.
THE PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SEND A STRONG JET INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF SHARPLY EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
CISCO
See the struggle in the wording of the HPC Prelim Disco? That is rather telling IMHO.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
846 AM EST MON DEC 07 2009
VALID 12Z FRI DEC 11 2009 - 12Z MON DEC 14 2009
PRELIMINARY UPDATE...
THE LAST FOUR ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRE HAVE
STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD THE TRANSPORT OF FRIGID AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 00Z/07
ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL REFLECT THIS IDEA...NOSING A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH INTO MONTANA BY MID PERIOD. THE 00Z/07 GFS WAS OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE...SHOWING THE REGION TO THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN WEAK CHINOOK CONDITIONS. WENT PREDOMINATELY
WITH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...WITH A
SHIFT TOWARD THE 00Z/07 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE WAVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND THE SYSTEM SHARPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 7.
THE PRONOUNCED SPLIT IN THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SEND A STRONG JET INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF SHARPLY EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
CISCO
See the struggle in the wording of the HPC Prelim Disco? That is rather telling IMHO.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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One thing's for sure - this weekends building arctic airmass is going to be a bitter cold one. The 12z CMC is showing the front into northern Kansas by Sunday morning with an extreme temperature gradient behind the front. In Nebraska, the 850mb temperature on Sunday morning ranges from just above 0C in the SE corner of the state to below -20C in the NW corner. That indicates a major front, one that would be capable of dropping surface temperatures 30+ degrees within just a few hours of its passing. While the models are having some problems right now with how fast to bring the front south, I feel that IF an airmass like this does develop it will be one of those classic ones that can dive all the way to Texas (even against resistance).


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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Extremeweatherguy wrote:One thing's for sure - this weekends building arctic airmass is going to be a bitter cold one. The 12z CMC is showing the front into northern Kansas by Sunday morning with an extreme temperature gradient behind the front. In Nebraska, the 850mb temperature on Sunday morning ranges from just above 0C in the SE corner of the state to below -20C in the NW corner. That indicates a major front, one that would be capable of dropping surface temperatures 30+ degrees within just a few hours of its passing. While the models are having some problems right now with how fast to bring the front south, I feel that IF an airmass like this does develop it will be one of those classic ones that can dive all the way to Texas (even against resistance).
We haven't had one of those in awhile I love those when you can just stand outside, and it's just an amazing feelings. I just hate how the models never pick up on it, and we're always left wondering if it will or won't happen till like a few days before.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Here is HPC's final discussion for Monday in which they side with the Euro ensembles (text below). Look ... I have seen enough Arctic outbreaks to know that if this thing is coming down through Montana and the Denver-side of the Rockies, its heading our way. If this verifies, look for weekend forecasts to change dramatically this week.
*************
FINAL...
THE 12Z/07 HAS COME STRONGLY TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLD HIGH COMING INTO MONTANA DAYS 4 AND
5...AND THE WAVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DAY 6. THE NEW
UKMET ALSO CLUSTERS WELL WITH THIS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL
SUPPRESSING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST DAY 6. MADE NO
CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.
*************
FINAL...
THE 12Z/07 HAS COME STRONGLY TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLD HIGH COMING INTO MONTANA DAYS 4 AND
5...AND THE WAVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DAY 6. THE NEW
UKMET ALSO CLUSTERS WELL WITH THIS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL
SUPPRESSING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST DAY 6. MADE NO
CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
And to add to the mix, forecaster Kocin in the Alaska Final Extended Disco shows the extent to guidance flip flopping like a fish out of water...
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 PM EST MON DEC 07 2009
VALID 12Z FRI DEC 11 2009 - 12Z TUE DEC 15 2009
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE
OVERNIGHT MODELS...SO PREDICTABILITY APPEARS TO BE HAVE
DIMINISHED.
THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE VERY COLD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA IS NOW IN MORE DOUBT...AT LEAST ITS INFLUENCE IN ALASKA.
MEANWHILE...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CYCLONIC FEATURES FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
YESTERDAYS HIGHLY ADVERTISED COLD AIR RETROGRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT ILLUSORY...AS HINTED AT BY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
YESTERDAY...AND BY THE 12Z GFS TODAY. WHILE THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A WESTWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR...THE 12Z RUN
HAS REALLY BACKED OFF. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL CANADIAN/UKMET ALSO DO
NOT TAKE THE COLD AIR AS FAR WEST AS EARLIER ADVERTISED.
TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH INTRAMODEL AGREEMENT...AND DO NOT MATCH WELL WITH
THEIR CORRESPONDING OPERATIONAL RUNS AS THE FORECAST PROCEEDS.
THE OVERNIGHT CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL TAKE A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH WESTWARD NORTH OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY/DAY 6...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS TAKE IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NW
CANADA...WHICH THE 12Z MODELS NOW DO AS WELL. SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA...VARIOUS CYCLONIC SYSTEMS ARE NOT WELL RESPRESENTED IN THE
MEANS AS THEY ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE RETAINED SOME CONTINUITY WITH
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...EXCEPT WITH THE WESTWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR
OVER ALASKA. THE MANUAL BLENDS USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE 12Z GFS...WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS EARLY IN THE FORECAST...AND THEN TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS THE 00Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH LOTS OF HAND
MODIFICATIONS.
THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z RUN...BUT IS
MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY/DAY 6...MORE IN LINE WITH THE OVERNIGHT EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND THE OTHER 12Z OPERATIONAL FORECASTS. IT IS NOW
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE
STATE THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
NORTH OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOCIN
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 PM EST MON DEC 07 2009
VALID 12Z FRI DEC 11 2009 - 12Z TUE DEC 15 2009
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE
OVERNIGHT MODELS...SO PREDICTABILITY APPEARS TO BE HAVE
DIMINISHED.
THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE VERY COLD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA IS NOW IN MORE DOUBT...AT LEAST ITS INFLUENCE IN ALASKA.
MEANWHILE...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CYCLONIC FEATURES FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
YESTERDAYS HIGHLY ADVERTISED COLD AIR RETROGRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT ILLUSORY...AS HINTED AT BY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
YESTERDAY...AND BY THE 12Z GFS TODAY. WHILE THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A WESTWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR...THE 12Z RUN
HAS REALLY BACKED OFF. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL CANADIAN/UKMET ALSO DO
NOT TAKE THE COLD AIR AS FAR WEST AS EARLIER ADVERTISED.
TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...THE OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH INTRAMODEL AGREEMENT...AND DO NOT MATCH WELL WITH
THEIR CORRESPONDING OPERATIONAL RUNS AS THE FORECAST PROCEEDS.
THE OVERNIGHT CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL TAKE A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH WESTWARD NORTH OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY/DAY 6...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS TAKE IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NW
CANADA...WHICH THE 12Z MODELS NOW DO AS WELL. SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA...VARIOUS CYCLONIC SYSTEMS ARE NOT WELL RESPRESENTED IN THE
MEANS AS THEY ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE RETAINED SOME CONTINUITY WITH
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...EXCEPT WITH THE WESTWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR
OVER ALASKA. THE MANUAL BLENDS USED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE 12Z GFS...WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS EARLY IN THE FORECAST...AND THEN TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS THE 00Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH LOTS OF HAND
MODIFICATIONS.
THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z RUN...BUT IS
MORE SUPPRESSED WITH A CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY/DAY 6...MORE IN LINE WITH THE OVERNIGHT EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND THE OTHER 12Z OPERATIONAL FORECASTS. IT IS NOW
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR EAST OF THE
STATE THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
NORTH OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOCIN
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- cctxhurricanewatcher
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Portastorm wrote:Here is HPC's final discussion for Monday in which they side with the Euro ensembles (text below). Look ... I have seen enough Arctic outbreaks to know that if this thing is coming down through Montana and the Denver-side of the Rockies, its heading our way. If this verifies, look for weekend forecasts to change dramatically this week.
*************
FINAL...
THE 12Z/07 HAS COME STRONGLY TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLD HIGH COMING INTO MONTANA DAYS 4 AND
5...AND THE WAVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DAY 6. THE NEW
UKMET ALSO CLUSTERS WELL WITH THIS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL
SUPPRESSING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST DAY 6. MADE NO
CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.
Yep. Most of the Texas AFD's from overnight have us all in shorts and short sleeves next week. Let's see if they start changing their tunes a tad this afternoon.
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
this could be a huge, classic outbreak of artic air like we have not see in quite sometime, agree with all
that has been stated already, will be very very interested to see what the local forecast offices say
in the pm fd to be coming out shortly.. i have not had alot of time at my disposal today to see what moisture
looks like heading into next wkend but i dont really think it will be bad at all if we dont have much around early
in the wkend once the air gets here because this type of setup will llikely hang around for quite sometime
upping the chances of any form of winter precip be it snow, sleet or frzing rain.. so hang on everyone i think
its fixing to be on hell of a ride, be interesting to see if we get any sharp changes in the next couple runs
on the gfs. i will closely look over it when the 18z run comes out and post more thoughts then.
that has been stated already, will be very very interested to see what the local forecast offices say
in the pm fd to be coming out shortly.. i have not had alot of time at my disposal today to see what moisture
looks like heading into next wkend but i dont really think it will be bad at all if we dont have much around early
in the wkend once the air gets here because this type of setup will llikely hang around for quite sometime
upping the chances of any form of winter precip be it snow, sleet or frzing rain.. so hang on everyone i think
its fixing to be on hell of a ride, be interesting to see if we get any sharp changes in the next couple runs
on the gfs. i will closely look over it when the 18z run comes out and post more thoughts then.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Afternoon AFD from Norman mentions the arctic air...
BOTH THE GFS AND EC BUILD "TRUE" ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CENTER OF 1035 HIGH
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AGREE WITH DDC THAT THIS
SITUATION HAS MAJOR BUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PROBLEM WITH EC MODEL IS HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR IS ERODED. FOR
NOW...WILL TWEAK NUMBERS DOWN TO THE COLDER SIDE.
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Afternoon AFD from Norman mentions the arctic air...BOTH THE GFS AND EC BUILD "TRUE" ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CENTER OF 1035 HIGH
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AGREE WITH DDC THAT THIS
SITUATION HAS MAJOR BUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PROBLEM WITH EC MODEL IS HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR IS ERODED. FOR
NOW...WILL TWEAK NUMBERS DOWN TO THE COLDER SIDE.
...and so it begins


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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
HockeyTx82 wrote:Has anyone else noticed the amount of watches and warnings out right now?
![]()
http://www.weather.gov/
Ya the MSM is now picking the story up and calling it the "First Major US Blizzard of the Season"
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- Extremeweatherguy
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iam currently studying meteorology, have quite a bit of knowledge in the field
but i dont proclaim to know everything by any stretch no one is perfect anyways
BUT from what i see with my own eyes just take the current pattern we are
in on top of what is going on to our north as has been pointed out add that with
this upcoming artic blast by late in the wkend into next week that could spell
a HUGE winter unlike what ok or tx has seen in quite a longtime. if this verifys
i would expect RECORD breaking cold across most of ok into tx by next week
and who knows about precip at this point but i dont think its over stretching it
or hyping it by any means that this could be a huge,huge event for our region
by next week! i mean sure there is a chance for a 'bust' but i dont see any
air modifiying coming from our north now esp after what is going on and
going to take place in the coming days across the northern,central plains
with very very cold air in place, significant snow pack. 18z should be out
shortly
but i dont proclaim to know everything by any stretch no one is perfect anyways
BUT from what i see with my own eyes just take the current pattern we are
in on top of what is going on to our north as has been pointed out add that with
this upcoming artic blast by late in the wkend into next week that could spell
a HUGE winter unlike what ok or tx has seen in quite a longtime. if this verifys
i would expect RECORD breaking cold across most of ok into tx by next week
and who knows about precip at this point but i dont think its over stretching it
or hyping it by any means that this could be a huge,huge event for our region
by next week! i mean sure there is a chance for a 'bust' but i dont see any
air modifiying coming from our north now esp after what is going on and
going to take place in the coming days across the northern,central plains
with very very cold air in place, significant snow pack. 18z should be out
shortly
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- Extremeweatherguy
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The trend of each run of the GFS pushing the arctic airmass further and further south continues with the 18z run. The 00z and 06z runs had the airmass barely getting south of the Canadian border, the 12z run brought the airmass into the central plains before stalling and fizzling it, and now the current 18z run is bringing the airmass down to the OK/TX border region before stalling and fizzling it Sunday into Monday.
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- cctxhurricanewatcher
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The trend of each run of the GFS pushing the arctic airmass further and further south continues with the 18z run. The 00z and 06z runs had the airmass barely getting south of the Canadian border, the 12z run brought the airmass into the central plains before stalling and fizzling it, and now the current 18z run is bringing the airmass down to the OK/TX border region before stalling and fizzling it Sunday into Monday.
That barbed wire fence at the Red River is going to stop it !!!


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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
I am -removed- a true Arctic outbreak for us in Texas!
It's been a while!
I heart 1989 and 1983!
It's been a while!
I heart 1989 and 1983!
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- amawea
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Re: Re:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:The trend of each run of the GFS pushing the arctic airmass further and further south continues with the 18z run. The 00z and 06z runs had the airmass barely getting south of the Canadian border, the 12z run brought the airmass into the central plains before stalling and fizzling it, and now the current 18z run is bringing the airmass down to the OK/TX border region before stalling and fizzling it Sunday into Monday.
That barbed wire fence at the Red River is going to stop it !!!![]()
Well now, I used to hear that all the time when stationed in Abilene, Tx. It was that the only thing between Abilene and the North Pole was a brokem down barbed wire fence. By golly it seemed true at times in the early 70's. I saw the temp drop 40 degrees in an hour once out there. Thanks for the memories.

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- srainhoutx
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Re: Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Anyone notice the cold temps in Denver? After the storm passes and a little clearing, they could see temps at or below zero. That's some mighty cold and deep air. 

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- Extremeweatherguy
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The current cold airmass is holding firm across OKC tonight. Yesterday we were forecasted to stay just above freezing tonight, then the NWS lowered the forecast to 30-32F this afternoon, but as you can see from the image below, temperatures across the area are ALREADY below freezing and it is only 8:45pm!

I expect the temperature across the OKC metro to cool a couple more degrees tonight due to incoming light precipitation ( which will likely fall as light freezing rain/freezing drizzle). By morning, it is looking quite possible that we will have a glaze of ice across the area, possibly making for some dangerous driving conditions on bridges and overpasses until the temperature can finally lift above freezing.

I expect the temperature across the OKC metro to cool a couple more degrees tonight due to incoming light precipitation ( which will likely fall as light freezing rain/freezing drizzle). By morning, it is looking quite possible that we will have a glaze of ice across the area, possibly making for some dangerous driving conditions on bridges and overpasses until the temperature can finally lift above freezing.
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