Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[rhoby13]

Which website do you guys go to to view the models? NWS?

[snow and ice]

Have seen mets on other boards talking about a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern taking shape for mid to late December. I have done some research into this pattern and it seems to support a western ridge/eastern trough. The question remains whether the cold remains confined to the eastern 1/3 of the nation or eastern 1/2 of the nation.

In addition, while I believe the mean trough position from mid to late December will be centered over the east, it is quite possible there may be a transitory retrogression of the trough, and it was such a scenario, combined with an upper level low travel with the STJ that led to the Christmas Eve Snowstorm across deep South Texas.

Thoughts and opinions are welcomed.

This is supported by the Ensembles in the long range. Generally, in a pattern like this, eastern Texas will get side swiped by the cold air for about a day, and then there is a quick warm up. However, this is a great pattern for winter storms if one is in the SE and eastern US. BTW, this midweek cold front is not chicken feed as it is supposed to get down to 22 tomorrow night in Texarkana.

long range Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f348.html

[srainhoutx]

12Z NAM painting a further S suppression of the STJ storm track into S CA/Baja as the cold air has drained very far south. More important is a very strong reinforcing shot of Arctic Air heading south as well. Seeing those -40 degree 850 mb temps in W Canada will be worth watching.

[Portastorm]

12Z NAM painting a further S suppression of the STJ storm track into S CA/Baja as the cold air has drained very far south. More important is a very strong reinforcing shot of Arctic Air heading south as well. Seeing those -40 degree 850 mb temps in W Canada will be worth watching.

Yeah srainhoutx, and Jeff Lindner talks this morning about how seeing a 1050mb high just north of Montana now impacting us is questionable. Here is what he wrote:

Dense fog blankets the area this morning with drizzle and light rain scattered.

Surface warm front over the coastal sections will slowly lift northward today with areas south of this boundary warming into the 60’s/70’s and areas north staying locked in the fog and drizzle and temps. in the 50’s. Strong short wave over the SW US will eject into TX tonight bringing a strong polar boundary currently stalled over NW TX through the region Wednesday morning. Will see highs prior to sunrise and then strong cold air advection onset with temps. falling/holing in the upper 50’s under sunny skies on Wednesday. Cold Thursday morning with a freeze likely in most areas, before rapid return flow ahead of the next short wave late Thursday/Friday.

Cloud and rain returns Friday as the next wave induces isentropic lift over the surface cold dome with a repeat of yesterday/today. Coastal surface low once again develops over the NW Gulf and tracks toward Louisiana with strong ENE winds along the upper TX coast. Will need to keep an eye on the tide levels Friday as we may see some overwash over on Bolivar. Otherwise widespread fog, drizzle, and light rain early Friday-early Saturday before the trough passes…only to be followed by another fast moving system by Sunday/Monday…pattern is for fast moving system every 1-2 days with weak cold frontal passages and chances for rainfall.

Models have been showing a massive arctic high building over NW Canada and nosing into Montana early next week…however delivery southward is questionable at this time as the pattern goes zonal…it is hard to have a 1050mb high just north of Montana and not be concerned about such a cold dense air mass undercutting an unfavorable zonal flow aloft and sliding down the front range…will continue to watch…but for now keep the real cold air north and east of TX.

[natlib]

I know this is a winter weather thread, but there is a really dangerous wind event taking shape in west texas this afternoon. Temps are currently in the 30's, but after lunch winds are expected to be sustained at 40 to 50 mph with gusts from 60 to 75 mph. Temps are supposed to climb to near 70 in the San Angelo area, even though is still 38 right now and misting. The mist will be replaced by blowing dust this afternoon.

There could be damage from this system as the winds come through.

[Portastorm]

No natlib, technically I would still consider that "winter weather."

I see where there are High Wind Warnings from Lubbock south to Alpine and west to El Paso. That pretty much encapsulates "West Texas." You're not kidding ... wow!

Keep us posted on that developing weather situation. Here in AUS, we have continual mist and cool readings in the low to mid 40s. NWS forecasted high was 65 but I'm hard-pressed to believe that will happen now.

[srainhoutx]

NWS forecasted high was 65 but I'm hard-pressed to believe that will happen now.

Temp rose from 57 to 69 with the warm front in 1 hour in NW Harris County.

[wxgirl69]

NWS forecasted high was 65 but I'm hard-pressed to believe that will happen now.

Temp rose from 57 to 69 with the warm front in 1 hour in NW Harris County. [/quote
Yeah it did, I am in Deer Park and went outside and it's yucky... I want the cold back..

[Portastorm]

NWS forecasted high was 65 but I'm hard-pressed to believe that will happen now.

Temp rose from 57 to 69 with the warm front in 1 hour in NW Harris County.

At 12 noon, it was 74 at Houston Intercontinental Airport and 46 in downtown Austin at Camp Mabry. Wow! Guess you're not kidding.

[natlib]

Temp in San Angelo jumped from 38 before lunch to 68 at 1:45. Just waiting on the wind now.

[natlib]

Wind is gusting to 60 mph in Midland and Lubbock with blowing dust. Now 73 in San Angelo. Wind is up to 40 mph. Back down to 25 tonight and a high of just 45 tomorrow. Wow what a rollercoaster.

[snow and ice]

Interesting for early next week. Could turn into something for parts of Texas.

18z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9120812!!/

The long range looks interesting, also:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f288.html

[Ntxw]

The snow I like, I hope it's not freezing rain or ice...a lot of us gearing up to travel for the Christmas holidays

[gboudx]

The snow I like, I hope it's not freezing rain or ice...a lot of us gearing up to travel for the Christmas holidays

True dat. It always seems to be dicey this time of year wondering if our travel will be impacted by wintry precip.

[wxgirl69]

Interesting for early next week. Could turn into something for parts of Texas.

18z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9120812!!/

The long range looks interesting, also:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f288.html

I have been reading storm 2k for 2 years now and I can not read the models still. Can you break it down for me. Thanks for your help...

[southerngale]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA45TnJQxhU[/youtube]

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove had some interesting thoughts tonight..

Since strong blocking signals will exist in three critical positions (+PNA, -AO, -NAO), this particular cold front will carry with it the same change seen late last week. The computer models drive the leading edge of the frigid blast into southern Mexico (no, I am NOT kidding...even Cuba will get into the colder air!). Cyclogenesis may occur twice over the western Gulf of Mexico between December 15 and 24 as subtropical jet stream energy interacts with the uplift created by cold values sliding over the warm water. Both storms may drag the tundra motherlode into the Great Lakes and Northeast, which can only mean intense cold in two spells before Christmas Eve.

And I might add that I will not rule out another (rare) frozen precipitation event for Houston later this month.

This is shaping up to be an interesting winter....

I'll add the La La Land 06Z GFS for grins just in time for Christmas...do I hear a little Bing Crosby music in the background SG?...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Portastorm]

Boy did the local WFO really underestimate this Polar airmass ... our high temps for today and lows tonight have been dropped two categories ... which in forecast-land is a LOT! Last night we had progged highs in the low to mid 50s ... now it is the upper 40s. Tonight our lows will be in the mid 20s compared to last night's forecast of low 30s!

[vbhoutex]

Larry Cosgrove had some interesting thoughts tonight..

Since strong blocking signals will exist in three critical positions (+PNA, -AO, -NAO), this particular cold front will carry with it the same change seen late last week. The computer models drive the leading edge of the frigid blast into southern Mexico (no, I am NOT kidding...even Cuba will get into the colder air!). Cyclogenesis may occur twice over the western Gulf of Mexico between December 15 and 24 as subtropical jet stream energy interacts with the uplift created by cold values sliding over the warm water. Both storms may drag the tundra motherlode into the Great Lakes and Northeast, which can only mean intense cold in two spells before Christmas Eve.

And I might add that I will not rule out another (rare) frozen precipitation event for Houston later this month.

This is shaping up to be an interesting winter....

I'll add the La La Land 06Z GFS for grins just in time for Christmas...do I hear a little Bing Crosby music in the background SG?...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

If only all my dreams could come true...vb drifts off into LALAland.

[srainhoutx]

Boy did the local WFO really underestimate this Polar airmass ... our high temps for today and lows tonight have been dropped two categories ... which in forecast-land is a LOT! Last night we had progged highs in the low to mid 50s ... now it is the upper 40s. Tonight our lows will be in the mid 20s compared to last night's forecast of low 30s!

There will likely be a lot of under estimated temps today. Front is through NW Harris County. What a difference a day makes. Look at the temps across TX at this hour...

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... duration=0

Brrr. Some cold air flowing across that fresh snow cover to our N.

I'll edit to add this little "nugget" from Lubbock this morning in their AFD. I know many wonder what we look to in Long Range Guidance. The MJO pulse is just one feature.

WITH THE MONDAY SOLUTION...ECM IS A BIT FASTER AND COOLER WITH THE
AIRMASS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY SETTLE INTO THE REGION. RETURN FLOW
SETS UP ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH...AT
PRESENT...BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTHEAST. INCIDENTALLY...
THIS COLD INFILTRATION TIMES WELL WITH THE THREE WEEK PRIOR MJO ENTRANCE TO
PHASE 5 BACK ON THE 22ND OF NOV.