Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Extremeweatherguy · #201 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:31 am

srainhoutx wrote:Interesting to note several features via Big Picture WV Imagery. Cold air (Polar in nature) has plunged S to the CA/MX border leaving a boundery that will likely stay in place throughout the period. Also note to the SW in the Pacific in the STJ flow. A rather robust Upper Low moving in from the W in a couple of days as more Arctic Air spills S from Canada. A lot of dynamics at play making for some very difficult forecasting issues in the days ahead IMHO.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

Yeah, the next week to ten days looks like it could feature several forecasting headaches across the nation. It is going to be interesting to watch play out.

Extremeweatherguy · #202 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:51 am

Tonight through Thursday morning are going to be downright frigid across central Oklahoma (and actually almost the entirety of the plains)!

The 12z NAM MOS is showing a low of 19F tonight in OKC, a high of 30F tomorrow, and a low of 12F tomorrow night! Brr! If that's not bad enough though, the winds are also expected to be pretty breezy through tomorrow afternoon. Wind chills could easily fall to near 0F tonight and then hold steady in the single digits and teens for most of the day tomorrow.

:cold:

The GFS MOS is not in quite yet, but I assume it will show similar temperatures for the area. The 12z operational GFS run is showing a high of only 28F in OKC tomorrow.

UPDATE: The GFS MOS has come in a little bit warmer for Thursday morning, showing a low of 17F. With clear skies, light winds, and dewpoints in the single digits though, I am much more inclined to believe the NAM MOS prediction of 12F. I guess we'll see. Either way though, tonight and tomorrow night look very cold, with sub-20F temperatures looking likely for both Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

iorange55 · #203 Postby **iorange55** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:31 am

Well the GFS 12 is an improvement it looks like maybe they'll continue to trend downwards hopefully. It's going to be cold tomorrow up there in Oklahoma geez this cold kind of just came out of nowhere

12F? Yikes. What's the record up there?

Extremeweatherguy · #204 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:37 am

iorange55 wrote:Well the GFS 12 is an improvement it looks like maybe they'll continue to trend downwards hopefully. It's going to be cold tomorrow up there in Oklahoma geez this cold kind of just came out of nowhere

12F? Yikes. What's the record up there?

The record low for December 10th is 3F, set way back in 1919. It doesn't look like we'll get quite that cold (I hope), but it is still going to be very frigid..especially for this early in the winter season. The last time OKC had comparable temperatures (<15F) was on January 28th of this year, when the low at the airport fell to 6F after a sleet storm.

#205 Postby **wx247** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:36 pm

The wind is also going to be howling making tomorrow absolutely brutal!!! :cold:

Forecasted high here tomorrow is 18... with 30 mph winds. YIKES!

#206 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:51 pm

Oh baybee, the 12z Euro says "Southern Plains friends, I got your winter storm right here!".

Check out the 144-168 hr time frame:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Extremeweatherguy · #207 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:56 pm

Portastorm wrote:Oh baybee, the 12z Euro says "Southern Plains friends, I got your winter storm right here!".

Check out the 144-168 hr time frame:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

That would be fun.

#208 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 1:59 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Oh baybee, the 12z Euro says "Southern Plains friends, I got your winter storm right here!".

Check out the 144-168 hr time frame:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html
That would be fun.

Not surprise one bit. I suspect the next couple of days will be interesting for many folks. The trends are remarkable. More later.

Extremeweatherguy · #209 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:01 pm

#210 Postby **wx247** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:04 pm

Bring it!!! LOL I am snow deprived!!!

#211 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 2:52 pm

HPC to me, sounds like more questions than answers regarding guidance...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
152 PM EST TUE DEC 08 2009

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 11 2009 - 12Z TUE DEC 15 2009

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/08 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY MANUAL FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE EC AND
EC ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STABLE FOR SEVERAL CYCLES NOW FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHOULD AFFORD A BETTER TEMPLATE THAN THE GFS
OR GEM GLOBAL AS A WHOLE ACROSS THE NATION. THE PATTERN IS COLD
AND STORMY FOR MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH THE OMINOUS
COMBINATION OF ARCTIC AIR BANKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...AND A
MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH CROSSING THE SOUTH. CALIFORNIA AND THE THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET...WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FALLING OFF IN CLIMATOLOGICAL ACCORDANCE FARTHER INLAND PAST THE
SIERRA RANGE. THE SYSTEM SCOOTING UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MID
PERIOD IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC LOCATION TO BE MUCH OF A
RAIN OR SNOW THREAT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST...BUT THE
MODELS...ECMWF INCLUDED...HAVE CHOKED A COUPLE TIMES THIS SEASON
WITH UNDERPLAYING SUCH DEVELOPMENT. PERHAPS THE BIGGER WORRY IS
WHAT BECOMES OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE SYNOPTIC EARMARKINGS TO
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST LATE DAY 7
THROUGH DAY 8. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TARGETING DECEMBER
16 FOR SOME TIME NOW AS A MAJOR CYCLONIC EVENT FOR THE EAST...SO
THERE MUST BE A FAIRLY ROBUST SIGNAL.

FINAL...

THE 12Z/08 DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
MID PERIOD...WITH BOTH THE FATE OF THE EAST COAST WAVE DAY 5 AND
THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE
MOST CONTENTION. IF THERE IS A RELIABLE TREND TO BE DIVINED FROM
THE GUIDANCE...IT IS THAT MORE HIGH PRESSURE MAY STAY BRIDGED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DAY 5 AS ANY WAVE EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. FOR NOW...DID NOT DEPART FROM THE EARLIER BLEND BASED ON
THE VOLATILITY OF THE MODELS. THE END OF THE PERIOD IS ALSO IN
CONTENTION...WITH THE GFS TRENDING RATHER BULLISH WITH THE
POSSIBLE CYCLONE TAKING AIM AT CAPE HATTERAS JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS FLIP FLOPPING MID PERIOD...ENDS
UP NOT FAR FROM ITS 00Z/08 IDEAS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CISCO

Hang on. It may be a rather wild ride via guidance. :wink:

cheezyWXguy · #212 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:08 pm

I am now sure that next week's event will verify, just because its the one week in which I wish it WOULDNT happen. Ntext week is my semester exam week, and an icestorm/snowstorm could have bad consequences for me. If school is cancelled next week, I might hafta make it up over winter break, and if school isnt cancelled, the roads could be treacherous with a bunch of my stupid teenage friends out on the roads...

#213 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 6:09 pm

Quickly glanced at some AFD's across TX and the Southern Plains. Sure seems to be a bit of beefing up on some colder weather early next week. FWD even went as far as to mention some freezing rain potential. Most WFO's are trending temps down. Southern Plains WFO's are "hinting" at some mighty cold temps behind the front with all of the fresh snowpack and Upper Air Disturances riding along the N and NW flow. Hmmm...

#214 Postby **amawea** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 8:16 pm

I just wanna say! I am 58 yrs old and have read everything I can get my hands on concerning the weather in my lifetime so far, and YOU guys are the greatest with your input and model run interpretations.

Heck, I've gotten so far behind the model curve I just gave up; and read your (Ladies and Gentleman) input.

I consider myself retired and am taking advantage of all of your expertise! Keep up the good work!
I love this site! God bless you all with whatever weather you dream of.

Extremeweatherguy · #215 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:00 pm

The current arctic front is quickly approaching the OKC metro this evening, and it looks like the bottom is about to drop out! As of 8pm it is still in the upper 30s to near 40F here, but behind the front temperatures have been dropping some 10 to 20 degrees within the first 3 hours. By midnight it seems quite possible that we will be well into the lower to middle 20s across central Oklahoma with strong northwesterly winds generating wind chills into the single digits or lower teens. Brrr..

iorange55 · #216 Postby **iorange55** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:32 pm

WOW wind chills below zero? That is a serious cold front.

Extremeweatherguy · #217 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:46 pm

The front recently arrived and the winds have increased big time. Probably gusting over 30mph right now with quickly falling temperatures.

:cold:

Pre-front temperature: Near 40F

Current temperature (less than 30-minutes post frontal passage): Lower 30s

9:04pm update - - Now below freezing.

9:36pm update - - Air temperature into the upper 20s, windchill is in the low/mid teens.

10:23pm update - - The cooling is continuing as strong NW winds continue to gust. Temperatures are now into the middle 20s with windchills only in the single digits!

11:30pm update - - Air temperature is in the lower 20s now. Windchill hovering just above 0F.

serenata09 · #218 Postby **serenata09** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 9:57 pm

When is the front progged to reach the DFW area?

#219 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:01 pm

serenata09 wrote:When is the front progged to reach the DFW area?

Midnight'ish.

EXPECTING THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
ITS PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND BE NEAR THE METROPLEX AROUND 6Z OR
MIDNIGHT AND INTO WACO A COUPLE HOURS LATER. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15-20 KNOTS AND SHOULD NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT CROSS WIND
PROBLEM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER...BUT BE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.

#220 Postby **BlueIce** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:31 pm

Here is an interesting image from the Tinker AFB METAR website

Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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