Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Tireman4]

Wow this is weird. One snow is December is noteworthy, but two? What are the odds?

[jasons2k]

yeah, I would like to see some more consistency. I've seen a similar model setup many times and have yet to see it happen (wasn't model watching back in '89).

I am paying attention though. With winter/cold there is a VERY fine line between intriguing/fun & flat-out-misery.

[Ntxw]

That is true, the last thing I would want is an icy mess when family is trying to arrive for Christmas.

[vbhoutex]

I don't want to seem all excited here, but OMG!OMG!OMG!!! IF, IF, IF the 00z GFS run were to verify the weather associated with it, especially in TX would be WAY PAST HISTORIC!! It would be DEVASTATING!!! No, I don't expect this to verify since we are so far out, but if it is indicative of a trend then we are in for a wild ride the rest of this month!
For those not versed in reading the models the basics are we are looking at temps below freezing for 4-5 days around and including Christmas along with some winter precipitation thrown in for most of the state including the RGV.
Once again, I am not about to think that something that historic shown on a model this far out would verify, but I don;t rhink I have ever seen models showing that much cold for that long along with wintery precipitation.

Where do you go to look at those model runs? Which website?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ is where the GFS and NAM runs are that the pics are coming from. There are other models and model sites. Someone may have a more comprehensive favorites set up with most of the models in one place they might be willing to post.

[iorange55]

I always revert back to here for all the model links

http://www.freewebs.com/cyclones/forecast.htm

[vbhoutex]

I always revert back to here for all the model links

http://www.freewebs.com/cyclones/forecast.htm

Thank you!

[lrak]

thanks for the link, iorange55!

[wxgirl69]

Any new model readings...

[iorange55]

Any new model readings...

Last one was the GFS 18 and it was still pretty much in line with the GFS 12 surprisingly it shows the cold going out faster after Christmas, but still shows cold, and snowy for Christmas in much of Texas.

[wxgirl69]

Any new model readings...

Last one was the GFS 18 and it was still pretty much in line with the GFS 12 surprisingly it shows the cold going out faster after Christmas, but still shows cold, and snowy for Christmas in much of Texas.

sounds good... I keep hearing it going east but I think they are talking about the 14th - 19th.

[iorange55]

Any new model readings...

Last one was the GFS 18 and it was still pretty much in line with the GFS 12 surprisingly it shows the cold going out faster after Christmas, but still shows cold, and snowy for Christmas in much of Texas.

sounds good... I keep hearing it going east but I think they are talking about the 14th - 19th.

Yeah. thats for the one next week the coldest air with that might go east, but I wouldn't discount it yet those arctic airmasses are pretty unpredictable.

[srainhoutx]

00Z's are running. NAM suggests a couple of Upper Air disturbances in the split flow for next week...strong PV in Canada...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Parallel GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

[iorange55]

Parallel GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

Still showing something around Christmas interesting I have a feeling it might disappear tomorrow, and come back in a few days.

[iorange55]

Oh GFS you tease me, and play me like a fool. I won't fall for it though, not yet.


276 hrs




288 hrs




300 hrs




312 hrs



Also the latest ECMWF looks as if it agrees with the gfs I'm not an expert on the ECMWF, but from what I know it looks good.

[WantSnow]

:( I only see green in extreme S. TX..I'm in DFW so I'm hoping for some winter weather. Cold weather without snow or ice is a waste of time..
Snow to the north....

Snow to the south.....

the "middle child" (N. TX) needs some attention!

Ain't that the truth!!!

[snow and ice]

The Ensembles, EURO, and Operational GFS are now in good agreement on Christmas week.

Checkout the spaghetti plot on the right. That is a direct discharge of arctic air straight down the plains:
0z Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f288.html

The 0z EURO is heading toward the same solution at 240hrs.
0z EURO @ 240hrs:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121200!!/

The very cold is coming. Now, where does the storm track setup.

[gofrogs]

Several model run consictency for the christma timefram storm hmhmhmhm

[srainhoutx]

The Ensembles, EURO, and Operational GFS are now in good agreement on Christmas week.

Checkout the spaghetti plot on the right. That is a direct discharge of arctic air straight down the plains:
0z Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f288.html

The 0z EURO is heading toward the same solution at 240hrs.
0z EURO @ 240hrs:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121200!!/

The very cold is coming. Now, where does the storm track setup.

I agree that the signals/trends are rather strong that we will infact see some much colder air near or just before Christmas. Perhaps the coldest we've seen so far this late Fall/early Winter season. I have not felt that this will be anything like 83 or 89 alll a long. We don't see temps in the -60 or -50 range in AK , Canada, or Siberian areas nor a 1060mb Artcic High anywhere at this time. What we do see is a very strong PV oscillating over Canada, with storms rotating around the PV. Next week should bring some colder air into AK/W Cananda as a strong Upper Storm takes shape in that area. The $64,00.00 question will be what the STJ offers up and will the PV drop further S as heights rise again in the AK region allowing Upper Air disturances to swing in from the N as the colder air moves S as some guidance suggests. I believe that we will have a much better idea later next week of what will likely happen. Very interesting pattern, none the less in an "non typical" El Nino Winter across the US. Will add we are seeing the AO in the -3.0 range. I suspect there will be brief warm ups with the pattern repeating several times before Winter 2009/2010 is over as well.

[Portastorm]

With the Arctic Oscillation literally tanking off the charts now and a moderate-to-strong El Nino in place, there are some close analogs/comparisons to the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78.

I know in northeastern Ohio, those were brutal periods of very cold and sometimes stormy weather. For you native Texans, please forgive me ... I got down here as quick as I could (1984) ... but what were those winters like in Texas?