TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
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TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (06S)
Not much to talk about just yet with this one....but things will be looking a lot different in a few days when it gets out over the warm soupy waters in the Timor Sea at present
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
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Re: Tropical Disturbance - 92P
Bureau of Meteorology is now watching it...they have issued a track map and the following advice
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 170 kilometres north northeast
of Goulburn Island and 420 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west
southwest at 10 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.2 degrees South 134.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December.
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 170 kilometres north northeast
of Goulburn Island and 420 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west
southwest at 10 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.2 degrees South 134.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
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Re: Tropical Disturbance - 92P
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 145 kilometres north of
Goulburn Island and 380 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west southwest
at 8 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 133.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Friday 11 December.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 145 kilometres north of
Goulburn Island and 380 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west southwest
at 8 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 133.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Friday 11 December.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Re: Tropical Disturbance - 92P
I think this is the system that the Euro has been developing with consistency for the last few days, it may become the strongest southern hemisphere TC of the year
Euro 96 hours
Euro 240 hours
Euro 96 hours
Euro 240 hours
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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Re: Tropical Disturbance - 92P
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S
135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. A 100853Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS POORLY
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AMSU VERTICAL CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS AN INCREASING
ONE-DEGREE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. FINALLY, THE GLOBAL MODELS OF
NOGAPS, GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. A 100853Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS POORLY
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AMSU VERTICAL CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS AN INCREASING
ONE-DEGREE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. FINALLY, THE GLOBAL MODELS OF
NOGAPS, GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Friday 11 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.
At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 150 kilometres north northwest
of Goulburn Island and 305 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west at 15
kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.4 degrees South 132.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Friday 11 December.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Friday 11 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.
At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 150 kilometres north northwest
of Goulburn Island and 305 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west at 15
kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.4 degrees South 132.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Friday 11 December.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Crostorm
- Category 5
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- Contact:
Re: Tropical Disturbance - 92P
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:04 am CST Friday 11 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Cape Don to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
The Cyclone WATCH from Croker Island to Cape Don has been cancelled.
At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 65 kilometres north northeast
of Croker Island and 290 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.6 degrees South 132.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1005 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Friday 11 December.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:04 am CST Friday 11 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Cape Don to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.
The Cyclone WATCH from Croker Island to Cape Don has been cancelled.
At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 65 kilometres north northeast
of Croker Island and 290 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.6 degrees South 132.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1005 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Friday 11 December.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Disturbance - 92P
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S
132.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AREA, DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY.
THE LLCC IS WEAK AND PARTLY OVER LAND AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR DATA FROM THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. SEA LEVEL PRESSURES
ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM 1004 TO 1007 MB WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24
HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR DUE
TO A WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND LAND INTERACTION.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S
132.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AREA, DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY.
THE LLCC IS WEAK AND PARTLY OVER LAND AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR DATA FROM THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. SEA LEVEL PRESSURES
ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM 1004 TO 1007 MB WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24
HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR DUE
TO A WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND LAND INTERACTION.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT] Friday 11 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Mitchell Plateau to Wyndham, in Western Australia.
At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be in the Van
Diemen Gulf, 100 kilometres east of Snake Bay and 130 kilometres northeast of
Darwin and moving southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing on Sunday. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but could develop later.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.5 degrees South 131.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1005 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Saturday 12 December [3:30 am WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT] Friday 11 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Mitchell Plateau to Wyndham, in Western Australia.
At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be in the Van
Diemen Gulf, 100 kilometres east of Snake Bay and 130 kilometres northeast of
Darwin and moving southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing on Sunday. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but could develop later.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.5 degrees South 131.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1005 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Saturday 12 December [3:30 am WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [4:30 am WDT] Saturday 12 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Mitchell Plateau to Wyndham.
At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be in the Van
Diemen Gulf, 45 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 20 kilometres west southwest
of Cape Hotham and moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing on Sunday. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but could develop later.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.1 degrees South 131.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday 12 December[9:30 am WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [4:30 am WDT] Saturday 12 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Mitchell Plateau to Wyndham.
At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be in the Van
Diemen Gulf, 45 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 20 kilometres west southwest
of Cape Hotham and moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing on Sunday. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but could develop later.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.1 degrees South 131.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday 12 December[9:30 am WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re:
Chacor wrote:"Tropical Low" is the official designation for the system, so surely that (rather than "Low Pressure") should be in the topic name.
Sorry, I meant to write tropical low and not low pressure.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Age: 38
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- Contact:
Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL LOW (92P)
WTXS21 PGTW 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 131.4E TO 12.9S 127.2E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 131.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
131.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 10 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF
THE LLCC. SPORADIC AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND HAVE STARTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE LLCC. RECENT OBSERVATIONS IN DARWIN OF 1003.9 MB AND 23 KNOT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, INDICATE THE LLCC IS NEAR 1002 MB WITH 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO
TRACK INTO THE BEAGLE GULF AND WILL MOVE OVER VERY FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND WILL REMAIN IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO VERY FAVORABLE
SST WATERS, LOW VWS, AND A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122200Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL LOW (92P)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [10:30 am WDT] Saturday 12 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Mitchell Plateau to Wyndham, in Western Australia.
At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be on the coast, 20
kilometres west southwest of Darwin and 485 kilometres east northeast of
Kalumburu and moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing later today. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but could develop later on
the north Kimberley coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham should listen for the
next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 130.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday 12 December[3:30 pm WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [10:30 am WDT] Saturday 12 December 2009
A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Mitchell Plateau to Wyndham, in Western Australia.
At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be on the coast, 20
kilometres west southwest of Darwin and 485 kilometres east northeast of
Kalumburu and moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing later today. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, but could develop later on
the north Kimberley coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Mitchell Plateau and Wyndham should listen for the
next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 130.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday 12 December[3:30 pm WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL LOW (92P)
IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CORRECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [4:30 pm WDT] Saturday 12 December 2009
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to
Wyndham, in western Australia.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Kuri
Bay and from Wyndham to the WA/NT Border.
At 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be on the coast,
100 kilometres southwest of Darwin and 410 kilometres east northeast of
Kalumburu and moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday
as it moves into the Timor Sea.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between
Wyndham and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia during Sunday afternoon or
evening.
HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later on Sunday and may
cause localised flooding.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the Northern Territory border and Kuri Bay should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 130.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Saturday 12 December [6:30 pm WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CORRECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [4:30 pm WDT] Saturday 12 December 2009
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to
Wyndham, in western Australia.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Kuri
Bay and from Wyndham to the WA/NT Border.
At 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be on the coast,
100 kilometres southwest of Darwin and 410 kilometres east northeast of
Kalumburu and moving southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday
as it moves into the Timor Sea.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected on the coast between
Wyndham and Mitchell Plateau in Western Australia during Sunday afternoon or
evening.
HEAVY RAIN is expected in the far north Kimberley region later on Sunday and may
cause localised flooding.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between the Northern Territory border and Kuri Bay should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 130.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Saturday 12 December [6:30 pm WST
Saturday 12 December].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL LOW (92P)
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0818 UTC 12/12/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 130.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm [ km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1800: 13.1S 129.0E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 13/0600: 13.0S 128.1E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 987
+36: 13/1800: 13.0S 127.7E: 115 [210]: 055 [100]: 984
+48: 14/0600: 13.4S 127.2E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 977
+60: 14/1800: 14.0S 126.6E: 195 [355]: 065 [120]: 977
+72: 15/0600: 14.9S 125.8E: 240 [445]: 050 [095]: 988
REMARKS:
Tropical low 01U has tracked steadily southwest just inland of the western Top
End coast and at 06Z was located by radar north of Daly River Mouth. The area of
strongest winds measured on Doppler radar south of the low's centre has moved
southwest from the Darwin area towards Channel Point. The low was assessed at
Dvorak FT=MET=PAT=2.5 at 06Z and is forecast to move west into the Timor Sea,
under the influence of a low-level ridge over the continent. The low is forecast
to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday, then intensify further in a
favourable environment. The cyclone is expected turn south or southwest and
approach the western Kimberley coast on Monday or Tuesday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0818 UTC 12/12/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 130.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm [ km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1800: 13.1S 129.0E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 13/0600: 13.0S 128.1E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 987
+36: 13/1800: 13.0S 127.7E: 115 [210]: 055 [100]: 984
+48: 14/0600: 13.4S 127.2E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 977
+60: 14/1800: 14.0S 126.6E: 195 [355]: 065 [120]: 977
+72: 15/0600: 14.9S 125.8E: 240 [445]: 050 [095]: 988
REMARKS:
Tropical low 01U has tracked steadily southwest just inland of the western Top
End coast and at 06Z was located by radar north of Daly River Mouth. The area of
strongest winds measured on Doppler radar south of the low's centre has moved
southwest from the Darwin area towards Channel Point. The low was assessed at
Dvorak FT=MET=PAT=2.5 at 06Z and is forecast to move west into the Timor Sea,
under the influence of a low-level ridge over the continent. The low is forecast
to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday, then intensify further in a
favourable environment. The cyclone is expected turn south or southwest and
approach the western Kimberley coast on Monday or Tuesday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: TIMOR SEA : TROPICAL LOW (92P)
Forecast has a cat 3 within 48 hours.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1352 UTC 12/12/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 130.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm [ km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0000: 13.1S 129.2E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1001
+24: 13/1200: 13.1S 128.7E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 991
+36: 14/0000: 13.1S 128.1E: 120 [220]: 055 [100]: 988
+48: 14/1200: 13.5S 127.5E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 976
+60: 15/0000: 14.0S 126.9E: 200 [365]: 080 [150]: 968
+72: 15/1200: 14.9S 126.3E: 245 [455]: 055 [100]: 988
REMARKS:
Tropical low 01U has become slow-moving over the last few hours and is becoming
difficult to locate accurately on radar. Overall, convection has diminished
during the past 6 hours, however, new deep convection has recently begun to
flare up on the western flank of the system. Dvorak assessment has been
difficult due to ragged convection, with DT indeterminate. Trend is S or D-
during the past 24 hrs, but expected to follow a D trend from now on as the
system moves away from the coast and convection consolidates overnight. The low
is forecast to move west into the Timor Sea, and develop into a tropical cyclone
on Sunday morning, then intensify further in a favourable environment. The
cyclone is expected turn south or southwest and approach the western Kimberley
coast on Monday or Tuesday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1352 UTC 12/12/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 130.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm [ km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0000: 13.1S 129.2E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 1001
+24: 13/1200: 13.1S 128.7E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 991
+36: 14/0000: 13.1S 128.1E: 120 [220]: 055 [100]: 988
+48: 14/1200: 13.5S 127.5E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 976
+60: 15/0000: 14.0S 126.9E: 200 [365]: 080 [150]: 968
+72: 15/1200: 14.9S 126.3E: 245 [455]: 055 [100]: 988
REMARKS:
Tropical low 01U has become slow-moving over the last few hours and is becoming
difficult to locate accurately on radar. Overall, convection has diminished
during the past 6 hours, however, new deep convection has recently begun to
flare up on the western flank of the system. Dvorak assessment has been
difficult due to ragged convection, with DT indeterminate. Trend is S or D-
during the past 24 hrs, but expected to follow a D trend from now on as the
system moves away from the coast and convection consolidates overnight. The low
is forecast to move west into the Timor Sea, and develop into a tropical cyclone
on Sunday morning, then intensify further in a favourable environment. The
cyclone is expected turn south or southwest and approach the western Kimberley
coast on Monday or Tuesday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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