First Klotzbach / Gray 2010 Atlantic season forecast

[cycloneye]

Luis,
Was there an El Nino event before all the 2010 analog years?

Yes,all the analog years had some form of El Nino the year before.See stats at link below.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[CrazyC83]

Right now, it depends on how El Nino goes into the spring. Although at this point I am NOT in agreement. If El Nino strengthens (my guess), it could be a very inactive season, numerically at least, as the only analog - 1997 (El Nino peaking in the heart of hurricane season) - had a REALLY quiet season after July.

My early prediction: 6/2/1

[Macrocane]

Right now, it depends on how El Nino goes into the spring. Although at this point I am NOT in agreement. If El Nino strengthens (my guess), it could be a very inactive season, numerically at least, as the only analog - 1997 (El Nino peaking in the heart of hurricane season) - had a REALLY quiet season after July.

My early prediction: 6/2/1

Why do you think El Niño will intensify? because the models are predicting a steady weakening beggining early next year.

[CrazyC83]

Right now, it depends on how El Nino goes into the spring. Although at this point I am NOT in agreement. If El Nino strengthens (my guess), it could be a very inactive season, numerically at least, as the only analog - 1997 (El Nino peaking in the heart of hurricane season) - had a REALLY quiet season after July.

My early prediction: 6/2/1

Why do you think El Niño will intensify? because the models are predicting a steady weakening beggining early next year.

I don't know, but I have that feeling it will deepen into something comparable to the 1997-98 El Nino.

[Macrocane]

I don't know, but I have that feeling it will deepen into something comparable to the 1997-98 El Nino.

I hope it doesn't, I hate El Niño because it brings higher than normal temperatures and lower than normal rains in Central america. I think we'll have to wait a few more months to have a better idea of what will happen.

[jinftl]

based on what data? You may be right, but you know the frequency of 2-season el ninos so you must have some pretty compelling data to back that hunch up. Looking at the range of available models, an el nino strength of where we are now is about as strong of strength being predicted for next summer...with the bulk showing enso neutral to weakening el nino....but who knows...i am sure someone will find an outlier 'armageddon el nino' model run to hang their hat on.

Like i said, i fully expect underpredictions in 2010 based on folks getting 'burned' in 2009 with their forecasts. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3/0/0 forecasts for ts/cane/major cane forecasts for 2010 based on knee-jerk reactions to this season. Seasons entered into with that level of expectation are worrisome. Folks may let down their guard and 'blow off' threats that they would have taken seriously in the post-2004 & 2005 seasons. Hurricane ennui and apathy set in remarkably fast. Hunches and gut feelings don't trump science at the end of the day. A hunch that we will see a '97 el nino is akin to hunches that the '06 season would rival '04 & '05.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...

Right now, it depends on how El Nino goes into the spring. Although at this point I am NOT in agreement. If El Nino strengthens (my guess), it could be a very inactive season, numerically at least, as the only analog - 1997 (El Nino peaking in the heart of hurricane season) - had a REALLY quiet season after July.

My early prediction: 6/2/1

Why do you think El Niño will intensify? because the models are predicting a steady weakening beggining early next year.

I don't know, but I have that feeling it will deepen into something comparable to the 1997-98 El Nino.

[Derek Ortt]

the models posted here are suggesting el nino through next season. A weakening el nino is still an el nino