#77 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 15, 2009 10:17 am
Now 85 kt 10-min from Perth.
AXAU01 APRF 151315
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1315 UTC 15/12/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 124.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 15.6S 124.2E: 045 [085]: 085 [155]: 959
+24: 16/1200: 16.6S 123.9E: 075 [140]: 070 [130]: 972
+36: 17/0000: 17.1S 123.9E: 110 [200]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 17/1200: 17.6S 123.9E: 140 [260]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 18/0000: 17.9S 123.1E: 190 [345]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 18/1200: 18.1S 122.4E: 235 [435]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Laurence is a small but intense system, as demonstrated by the observations at
Troughton Island earlier today, where a peak gust of 185 km/h was measured as
the system went directly over the island. An eye has been evident on IR, VIS
and microwave imagery during the day. DT peaked at 6.0 but other images produced
a DT of 5.0-5.5. While DT may suggest 5.5 based on surround Black [no eye
adjustment LG/W], the FT is set at 5.0 in agreement with the PAT. ADT and AMSU
estimates are lower, probably owing to the small little on the weak side having
failed to identify the eye signature.
Laurence has intensified under favourable upper level outflow and low shear but
despite being in close proximity to land. Intensity is maintained at 85 knot
mean winds for next 18 hours as it tracks parallel to the coast, but intensity
is heavily dependent upon the influence of land. Most models suggest landfall is
the most likely scenario by about +24 hours and weakening is then likely as a
more southerly track ensues.
A more westerly track is possible beyond +48 hours and potentially the system
may move offshore and redevelop in the longer term.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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