#107 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 16, 2009 12:38 am
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0051 UTC 16/12/2009
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 124.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
Central Pressure: 933 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: D6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 16.2S 123.7E: 045 [085]: 105 [195]: 938
+24: 17/0000: 16.7S 123.7E: 080 [150]: 075 [140]: 967
+36: 17/1200: 17.2S 123.5E: 095 [175]: 060 [110]: 979
+48: 18/0000: 17.7S 122.9E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 993
+60: 18/1200: 17.9S 122.1E: 180 [335]: 040 [075]: 993
+72: 19/0000: 18.0S 121.3E: 230 [425]: 050 [095]: 985
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small and very intense system. A well
defined eye has been evident on microwave and IR imagery. EIR analysis was
consistently giving a DT of 6.5 and FT is assigned on this basis with no
constraints broken following reanalysis of previous imagery. The latest image
shows some filling of the eye with the warmest eye temp grey shade being white,
which will imply a weakening trend if it continues.
It has remained sufficiently off the coast and is in a very favourable low shear
environment. Guidance indicates the shear environment will remain generally
favourable over the next 48-72 hours despite some fluctuation. Only interaction
with land is likely to weaken the system, hence the forecast intensity is
dependent on the track. The track is likely to become more southerly during
today under the influence of a highly meridional mid level pattern with a
stationary trough to the west and an anticyclone to the east.
A more westerly track is possible during Friday and in the longer term the
system may move offshore and redevelop.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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