Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[snow and ice]

Should the 12z run continue to verify (I don't trust 18z and 6z runs very much) I'll be a happy camper any news from the EC?

The 0z Euro actually looks a little bit warmer over the next five days than some previous runs. However, it still has the major dump of Arctic air around Christmas.

There might be a surprise snow for some in North Texas between Tuesday and Friday. However, between Christmas and New Years is when business will really pick up. I'm feeling very confident something major is going to pop out the gulf during that timeframe. The analogs and now the models are suggesting it.

[HockeyTx82]

From Forth Worth NWS this morning.......

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009/
SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS. WEAK CAA WILL GO
NEUTRAL LATER TODAY BUT STILL UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS A LITTLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST 1/2 CWA. OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 CWA...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL BE SMALL UNDER A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD. AN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THIS FAR NORTH...THUS DID
NOT ADD ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BRIEFLY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART FOR THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. IT
WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE STATE. AM HEDGING
HIGHS FRIDAY UPWARD A LITTLE AS THE MAIN BODY OF COLDER AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FRAILLY STATIC
ACROSS THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE RESULTANT
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AIR
MASS WILL BE COMING OUT OF MANITOBA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND
SHOULD BE COLD LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL FRONTS PRODUCED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD. GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

[Portastorm]

You folks in North Texas should take note of the analog event referenced by HPC. According to some online records, it did snow on Dec. 23, 1966, in the DFW area. Not much accumulation but snow did fall during that event. Interesting!

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow:

You folks in North Texas should take note of the analog event referenced by HPC. According to some online records, it did snow on Dec. 23, 1966, in the DFW area. Not much accumulation but snow did fall during that event. Interesting!

Where might I find that? I am still new to this stuff somewhat. Thanks for the help.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

You folks in North Texas should take note of the analog event referenced by HPC. According to some online records, it did snow on Dec. 23, 1966, in the DFW area. Not much accumulation but snow did fall during that event. Interesting!

Where might I find that? I am still new to this stuff somewhat. Thanks for the help.

http://www.weathermatrix.net/archive/snowreports/200412/0353.html

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Oh, and I think it is now time to post this ... ALL ABOARD!!!!! The Polar Express is about the leave the station.

And with that, I will make sure to have my shorts on standby.

Seriously, it's looking like the real deal is in the cards. I expect the NWS offices to mention next week's weather in more detail if not in their afternoon AFD's, for sure the Thursday overnights.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Meanwhile in Calgary, they are breaking century old temp records. Source areas are ripe and with fresh snow pack....

http://www.660news.com/news/local/more. ... 10122_3056

[rhoby13]

The snow pack in the Midwest has retreated some this week.


http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ssdsnow/viewer.htm

[HockeyTx82]

The snow pack in the Midwest has retreated some this week.


http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ssdsnow/viewer.htm

Looks like there is still quite a bit, but is it still enough to help keep the air cold when it gets down here?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The snow pack in the Midwest has retreated some this week.


http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ssdsnow/viewer.htm

That is still a ton of snow pack compared to recent years. Even if it melted before now and when the fronts start heading south, the soil temps will be very cold in the areas where it might have just melted. Plus, if it's a step down process, some fresh snow might fall before the big hounds are released.

[rhoby13]

That is still a ton of snow pack compared to recent years. Even if it melted before now and when the fronts start heading south, the soil temps will be very cold in the areas where it might have just melted. Plus, if it's a step down process, some fresh snow might fall before the big hounds are released.

I agree it's still a ton of snow cover. However, this time last week the snow cover reached almost to the Oklahoma border as well as the entire state of Colorado. Will it make that much of a difference? I don't know...thoughts?

[HockeyTx82]

Here a link of the past 30 days of snow pack, you can see it grow and shrink. Note the snow pack in Texas for a brief moment as well.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/nhem-1mo-loop.html

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

No comments on the 12z??? Get with the program!

[Portastorm]

CC, you're not going to believe some computer model, are ya?!

I'm telling y'all IT IS COMING, BABY!! WHOO-WHOOO ... the Polar Express will be pulling out of the station shortly. The 12z GFS just continues the chorus we have had for days now.

Meanwhile, I'm lacing up my shoes and grabbing the football. It's "game on" for next week. Where's Lucy? Oh Loooo-ceeeee!

[wwatkins]

I'm new to this board but not new to weather, been looking at computer models since I was 13. Been lurking for the past week or so but decided to chime in. Any comments on the 12z GFS? I know this is to be taken with a grain of salt but the IPS meteostar forecast at Fort Worth... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ext=kftw... shows 0.56" of precip on the 27th at 00z with an 850mb temp of -7, and 0.30" of precip on the 27th at 12z with and 850mb temp of -12. That could easily result in 5-10" of snow. Not to mention the low temperature of 1 above zero it shows the morning of the 30th!

[HockeyTx82]

I'm new to this board but not new to weather, been looking at computer models since I was 13. Been lurking for the past week or so but decided to chime in. Any comments on the 12z GFS? I know this is to be taken with a grain of salt but the IPS meteostar forecast at Fort Worth... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ext=kftw... shows 0.56" of precip on the 27th at 00z with an 850mb temp of -7, and 0.30" of precip on the 27th at 12z with and 850mb temp of -12. That could easily result in 5-10" of snow. Not to mention the low temperature of 1 above zero it shows the morning of the 30th!

WOW, that is crazy cold. Does anyone on here ever remember seeing numbers that cold that far out and them actually happening? I am not sure if cold like that just happens last minute or if forecasts can predict it that well down here. Also is the fact that numbers like that are even showing mean that something is likely to happen or is that forecast just crazy? Just a newbie asking questions trying to learn.

[jasons2k]

Welcome!

Same shows 13-28F for Houston on the 29th! ACK - NO!!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... text=kiah..

I'd like to see some more snow too, but geez, that's just sickening cold. Might have to worry about the fan palms with such a sceanrio. I don't want to even think about it yet as the GFS tends to do this in the long range.

[jasons2k]

WOW, that is crazy cold. Does anyone on here ever remember seeing numbers that cold that far out and them actually happening? I am not sure if cold like that just happens last minute or if forecasts can predict it that well down here. Also is the fact that numbers like that are even showing mean that something is likely to happen or is that forecast just crazy? Just a newbie asking questions trying to learn.

Well, the GFS is notorious for doing this. I can't even count how many times it has shown brutal cold and snow deep into Mexico 14 days out only to have it end-up in the 60's in Dallas.

However, this is a newer/refined GFS. More importantly, the EURO has been showing an upper-air pattern that would support such a cold dump down the plains. Second, the GFS has been trending colder and closer to the EURO, not the other way around. Third, it's been consistent. So, if you are looking for cold, the models are trending in your favor.

In short, I am getting increasingly concerned about this. This just might be the season Houston gets whacked back to USDA Zone 8. I, for one, won't take any delight in that if it happens.

[msstateguy83]

I have been out of here for a few days but i would like to say this is VERY,VERY impressive setup
for i mean a MAJOR,MAJOR,MAJOR WINTER STORMS to the likes that we have not seen in texas or
oklahoma in a VERY long time! I would expect the nws to put strong wording in the hwo's or put out
a strongly worded sws in the next 24 hours or so as this is coming up on christmas with alot of people
traveling, but i think the confidence level is getting much higher...

[vbhoutex]

Welcome to the board wwatkins. We're glad to have you aboard. I'm not sure how deeply I buy into meteostar, but it isn't out of the realm of possibilities for your area or for our area in SE TX. Whether one buys into the current set of model runs, there is one thing for sure-All guidance is pointing towards a cold and probably stormy week after Christmas as well as a cold(by most Texan's standards) Christmas if not Christmas week(21-25). The moisture availability and it's placement seem to be the questionable factors at this point. This all goes with the caveat that we are still 10 days out from these events and we know how closely we should follow the models for the details at this point.