Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Lowpressure]

Going by the GFS model run above would NC/SC be getting rain or snow from that LP?

That particular run would indicate all rain for the Carolinas exept for the higher elevation near the Tenn border.

[Jag95]

Climate Prediction Center temperature forecasts:

6-10 days


8-14 days

[timNms]

Interesting long term discussion from NWS Jackson:

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE FORECAST FOR THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS IS OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS KEEPING THE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE GO FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND IT
DE-EMPHASIZES SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY THEREBY KEEP ANY GULF LOW
DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG
SWD OVER NRN MEXICO AND HELP INDUCE A NW GULF LOW THAT WOULD BRING
LIGHT-MDT RAINFALL TO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS THUS BRINGING COLDER
AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.

Well one thing my area does not need is anymore rain but unfortunately according to my latest local weather forecast my area is forecasted to receive more rain this week. I'll just be glad to see the sun again.

Speaking of rain....it's WET at my house too lol. So wet, in fact, that my satellite internet service is messing up. It went down yesterday around 3:00 and was out until a few mins ago when I discovered that one of the gadgets on the dish was full of water.

NWS in Jackson is calling for a slight chance of show showers/flurries for us on Saturday night.

[attallaman]

Interesting long term discussion from NWS Jackson:

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE FORECAST FOR THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS IS OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS KEEPING THE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE GO FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND IT
DE-EMPHASIZES SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY THEREBY KEEP ANY GULF LOW
DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG
SWD OVER NRN MEXICO AND HELP INDUCE A NW GULF LOW THAT WOULD BRING
LIGHT-MDT RAINFALL TO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THURS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS THUS BRINGING COLDER
AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY.

Well one thing my area does not need is anymore rain but unfortunately according to my latest local weather forecast my area is forecasted to receive more rain this week. I'll just be glad to see the sun again.

Speaking of rain....it's WET at my house too lol. So wet, in fact, that my satellite internet service is messing up. It went down yesterday around 3:00 and was out until a few mins ago when I discovered that one of the gadgets on the dish was full of water.

NWS in Jackson is calling for a slight chance of show showers/flurries for us on Saturday night.

Where is Seminary, MS located?

[TideJoe]

Where is Seminary, MS located?

Roughly 20 miles NW of Hattiesburg on Hwy 49.

[RNGR]

I know its not going to verify but the 12z GFS has a monster snow storm and hard freeze hitting the south on dec 28-30

[Stormcenter]

Can you post the model map of this run?
Thank you.

I know its not going to verify but the 12z GFS has a monster snow storm and hard freeze hitting the south on dec 28-30

[Brent]

HPC for THIS weekend(Friday Night/Saturday)

HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z/15 ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THE A TRACK
FAR ENOUGH W TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND PERHAPS EXTREME
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYS BUT IT IS
A DAY FASTER WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT.

[attallaman]

Where is Seminary, MS located?

Roughly 20 miles NW of Hattiesburg on Hwy 49.

Thanks.

[timNms]

Where is Seminary, MS located?

Roughly 20 miles NW of Hattiesburg on Hwy 49.

Thanks.

You've never been to the big city of Seminary????? Total population of about 300
Like TideJoe said, Seminary is 18 miles north of Hattiesburg on US 49.

[gofrogs]

Wow that 18z GFS for north texas

[Brent]

*drools*

[Extremeweatherguy]

I will be down in Florida during the Christmas timeframe (including Christmas Day), and as of now it looks like I might actually have to pack my winter gear. lol

The latest 00z GFS is showing a pretty chilly scenario for the sunshine state on Christmas Day including, perhaps, some slight chances for wintry-type precipitation...?

SURFACE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

850MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif

500MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240l.gif

Obviously, based on climatology, I highly doubt that any kind of winter precipitation event will play out, however a frost or freeze threat doesn't seem so far fetched next week. This will definitely be worth keeping an eye on IMO. Based on how the models have handled Oklahoma's weather at this range recently though, anything could conceivably happen. lol. I'll be more interested in the the model runs for Christmas Day once we get within 96-120 hours.

[attallaman]

You've never been to the big city of Seminary????? Total population of about 300
Like TideJoe said, Seminary is 18 miles north of Hattiesburg on US 49.[/quote] Never been to Seminary, sorry.

[attallaman]

I need to know how to post to a quote when there's already 3 imbedded quotes in a post. I kept receiving error messages telling me I couldn't do it.

[Burn1]

Looks like Florida will have a moderate cool down from the 19-23 then
the jet looks to bypass the the state to the north.....Sunny and warm for the "Sunshine State" on Christmas day.

[Brent]

No comment on the 6z GFS? Wow, ya'll must be sleeping.

[Stormcenter]

Can you please post it?

No comment on the 6z GFS? Wow, ya'll must be sleeping.

[Brent]

Can you please post it?

No comment on the 6z GFS? Wow, ya'll must be sleeping.

Huge Christmas Eve snowstorm

[Stormcenter]

Thanks Brent!
I have my fingers and toes crossed.