Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

For what it's worth, the 18z still shows winter chaos for Texas. The 18z of the GFS is frowned on by some pro Mets because it can often be a total reversal of logic between the 12Z and other models like Euro, etc.

[Ntxw]

That's because there is no new initial data for the 6z runs and 18z runs. Generally the 12z and 0z are the runs that recieve additional data which in turn is more in line and should be better trusted.

[Big O]

For what it's worth, the 18z still shows winter chaos for Texas. The 18z of the GFS is frowned on by some pro Mets because it can often be a total reversal of logic between the 12Z and other models like Euro, etc.

Is that the old GFS you are referring to or the para? The NCEP site has fully updated the 18Z GFS (old), but still shows 12/15 for 18Z of para GFS. Please explain.

[Ntxw]

For what it's worth, the 18z still shows winter chaos for Texas. The 18z of the GFS is frowned on by some pro Mets because it can often be a total reversal of logic between the 12Z and other models like Euro, etc.

Is that the old GFS you are referring to or the para? The NCEP site has fully updated the 18Z GFS (old), but still shows 12/15 for 18Z of para GFS. Please explain.

Both are now one in the same. You should probably disregard the para site, wonder if they still update it.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 18z still shows winter chaos for Texas. The 18z of the GFS is frowned on by some pro Mets because it can often be a total reversal of logic between the 12Z and other models like Euro, etc.

Is that the old GFS you are referring to or the para? The NCEP site has fully updated the 18Z GFS (old), but still shows 12/15 for 18Z of para GFS. Please explain.

Both are now one in the same. You should probably disregard the para site, wonder if they still update it.

The Parallel GFS site did not update with the 18Z run today.

[gofrogs]

Pete Delkus said absolutley nothing about any type of wintry precip.

[wgdade]

Looking at the 18Z GFS, a fairly strong low is forecast a little farther north. What does that mean? Well, there would be an increased chance of severe weather, including tornadoes, if this pans out on Wed. showing SBCAPE over 500 J/kg, not much but all you need in the cool season. 0-6km shear is around 60 knts...very favorable for supercells. The main threat would be in East TX and Weat LA south of I-20. If the low is a little deeper, there would be a good wrap around moisture event giving most of East TX a chance of at least flurries on Christmas Eve.

[gofrogs]

What is oyur thought on the christmas week pattern.

[Ntxw]

What is oyur thought on the christmas week pattern.

The upper pattern and trends so far has a consensus that it will be cold around Christmas. The models continue to show storms riding over this cold air. Who gets what, where, and how much isn't exactly clear at this point. There is a good chance someone will see a good winter storm between the Christmas and New Years timeframe. Too far out to get into details about precipitation when the storms have yet to exist. Now that we are getting closer, the Texas AFD's have started hinting about watching next week for some interesting weather should the models continue to verify.

[srainhoutx]

00z runs will be interesting. Denver had a great discussion this afternoon on where and how the Pre Christmas Storm should unfold. Let's see what the guidance says tonight...

MODELS ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY AGREEING FOR NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER ARE
STARTING TO MERGE TO A COMMON SOLUTION. GFS...ECMWF...GEM AND NOGAPS
ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL JOIN ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM TO BRING MOISTURE AS WELL AS
BRINGING COLD AIR BEHIND IT FROM THE ARCTIC. TIMING AND STRENGTH
LOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS QUICKLY BY LATER TUESDAY OVER THE
REGION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FORECAST
TOWARDS COOLER AND WETTER.

[wxgirl69]

Am I understanding things correctly.. The cold air has been pushed back a few days. Instead of it coming down Monday with reinforcing shots following.. It will now come down Thursday with reinforcing cold shots following... And, I believe models are now coming into agreement that the air will shoot south instead of being pushed east.. at this time I do know any winter precip is still left to be answered... Just trying to get a grasp on where every thing stands...

[gofrogs]

Well the nws service and weather.com look as though they have highs in the 50s approaching 60 next week, i dont get it, its like they dont even look at the model trends, or even what the models are saying. Well see what there saying in three or four days.

[weatherguy425]

They do look at model trends but when a forecast is as uncertain as this one they cant just throw the model output into the forecast, they adjust it as their confidence grows.Besides most of the action looks to occur just out side of the 7-day forecast period.

[HockeyTx82]

I am just making a guess that perhaps they are being careful this far out. Imagine how many people would change plans if they started forecasting this stuff early on and then say it did not happen. They would cause a lot of problems for businesses and the financial losses could be huge. Just one example I can think of. I would guess they are aware of it, but if this storm and cold are going to be what people on here make it out to be I am sure they need to tread with caution. Just my amateur two cents worth.

[attallaman]

Am I understanding things correctly.. The cold air has been pushed back a few days. Instead of it coming down Monday with reinforcing shots following.. It will now come down Thursday with reinforcing cold shots following... And, I believe models are now coming into agreement that the air will shoot south instead of being pushed east.. at this time I do know any winter precip is still left to be answered... Just trying to get a grasp on where every thing stands...

Wxgirl69 it seems to me like you want it to snow in Deer Park for Christmas.

[gofrogs]

Yeah your exactly right and if they just make a bold call and its wrong they look like idiots in a way so i see what you mean iam just waitng on these 0z runs

[mysterymachinebl]

Well the nws service and weather.com look as though they have highs in the 50s approaching 60 next week, i dont get it, its like they dont even look at the model trends, or even what the models are saying. Well see what there saying in three or four days.

I rarely trust weather.com. They seem to only catch onto something at the very last minute. Last Winter, a few days before one of the icing episodes, they said we would be in the 60s.

[srainhoutx]

A good example is the Low/Trough off Corpus Christi night. WFO's along the Mid Atlantic have taken a conservative approach. If tonight’s 00Z NAM solutions are current, areas of W NC VA and the DC area could see totals nearing a foot of snow. Remember that after the 12Z runs, it looked as if the storm would move offshore with little affect other than some rain. There are many variables in this complex setup and everything must come together at the right time to produce. The "finer' details always become clearer in the 48 to 72 hour range, and then it's no guarantee.

[HockeyTx82]

Dan on FOX 4 in Dallas just showed an animation that had the cold air blowing down south right around Christmas. Guess he is starting to think it might happen. He did say cooler temps, not cold temps.

[gofrogs]

I wander what the GFS has in store let me check