Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

port that is a very good point, i didnt have time earlyer to look all in depth, at the uppers,exc
on the 12z to see if that had changed but that is a very good sign still then =) also i will just
say to those who are wanting answers my doubt is in the days leading up to, christmas day.
days after between the 26th - jan 2nd i can see the possibilty setting up for a major winter
storm with the arctic dump happening in that time frame... but its all a matter of timing,
moisture around for precip,exc,exc...

[Portastorm]

HockeyTx82, several winters ago, Wxman57 (who is a highly esteemed pro met) educated us here about paying more attention to what the GFS is showing at the upper levels of the atmosphere because the surface depictions of the model were less reliable the further out you go from a certain event.

So that is why I have been watching the 500mb maps. And they are showing a northwest-to-north flow of air down into Texas by later next week. That means it will tap whatever air is in Canada into our area ... of course with some moderation. Also, he told us to watch for the source regions of air. Just because the air is Canadian or even Arctic doesn't automatically mean it'll be a pipe-busting airmass for us. But right now, those source regions ARE pretty cold. Something to watch.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

HockeyTx82, several winters ago, Wxman57 (who is a highly esteemed pro met) educated us here about paying more attention to what the GFS is showing at the upper levels of the atmosphere because the surface depictions of the model were less reliable the further out you go from a certain event.

So that is why I have been watching the 500mb maps. And they are showing a northwest-to-north flow of air down into Texas by later next week. That means it will tap whatever air is in Canada into our area ... of course with some moderation. Also, he told us to watch for the source regions of air. Just because the air is Canadian or even Arctic doesn't automatically mean it'll be a pipe-busting airmass for us. But right now, those source regions ARE pretty cold. Something to watch.

And with alot of snowcover......

[srainhoutx]

HockeyTx82, several winters ago, Wxman57 (who is a highly esteemed pro met) educated us here about paying more attention to what the GFS is showing at the upper levels of the atmosphere because the surface depictions of the model were less reliable the further out you go from a certain event.

So that is why I have been watching the 500mb maps. And they are showing a northwest-to-north flow of air down into Texas by later next week. That means it will tap whatever air is in Canada into our area ... of course with some moderation. Also, he told us to watch for the source regions of air. Just because the air is Canadian or even Arctic doesn't automatically mean it'll be a pipe-busting airmass for us. But right now, those source regions ARE pretty cold. Something to watch.

Absolutely Correct Portastorm. Also helps to look at the 200mb and 300mb flow as well.

[Texas2Florida]

over the last couple days that was looking to be the case, however last few runs
of the models have bumped up temps, it *appears* subject to change the brunt of
the air will go just to our north and east of oklahoma,texas, the gfs i just looked over
has temps into n tx modifying into the 50s by 00z on the 27th.

so rightnow things to remember

1: we do have a major system that could effect our weather heading towards
the christmas holiday

2: the timing, how much of the arctic air, moisture are all a concern at this point

3: best areas for any snow appears at this time to be new mexico,colorado,kansas,
parts of the tx panhandle, northern,central ok and into parts of missouri, arkansas.

4: further south mix bag of precip is most likely to occur ie sleet,frz raining possibly
with some light snow. I DO NOT AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY SNOW TO FALL SOUTH
OF THE DALLAS-FORTWORTH METROPLEX FROM DALLAS E AND SOUTHWARD MOSTLY
A COLD RAIN..
5: as anyone that knows weather we are a life time out so keep it here and or to your
local tv,radio or the national weather service for the latest in the coming days because
this could still be a major event there is just way to many questions then answers rightnow
and we should have more by the trends in the models in the coming days..

So...DFW should be expecting a winter mess still then?!

[southerngale]

Btw, it's pretty cold right now. If we could just keep temps this low until the next few shots, we might be in business. lol
Currently 42° and it's been raining all day. Oh to think what all this precip would look like in the frozen white form.

[HockeyTx82]

HockeyTx82, several winters ago, Wxman57 (who is a highly esteemed pro met) educated us here about paying more attention to what the GFS is showing at the upper levels of the atmosphere because the surface depictions of the model were less reliable the further out you go from a certain event.

So that is why I have been watching the 500mb maps. And they are showing a northwest-to-north flow of air down into Texas by later next week. That means it will tap whatever air is in Canada into our area ... of course with some moderation. Also, he told us to watch for the source regions of air. Just because the air is Canadian or even Arctic doesn't automatically mean it'll be a pipe-busting airmass for us. But right now, those source regions ARE pretty cold. Something to watch.

Thank you for the feedback. I am so glad I have found this board. I have learned more in the past month then I ever thought I would learn about weather. I never realized what all goes into forecasts and now I have a new appreciation for it. It is fun stuff, I guess all we can do as this point and sit back and see what comes down the pipe. It is also awesome to have mets like Wxman57 and others around who chime in from time to time. Getting advice and guidance from the pros is awesome.

[Ntxw]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

The "stepping down" process continues next week just prior to Christmas with a strong Arctic front and very potent Winter Storm from CO/N MX eastward. The "dump" as you call it, will occur behind the Winter Storm as Arctic Air surges very far S in MX. I think folks have had a lot of hopes for a widespread snow event for Christmas that the GFS was painting. It is only December 17th. The snowiest months climo wise are January and February in TX. Perhaps the Dec 4th "teaser" event in SE TX /SW LA raised some hopes a bit. We have not even "officially" entered the Winter Season.

Im not trying to be negative or anything, but many people were saying the same thing about last year's snow miracle and that winter didn't even start yet. The rest of the real winter didn't really do much. Though I am much more optimistic this year as the players involved have somewhat anted up

[Big O]

12Z ECMWF offers a 'hint' of what may occur around the 26th and 27th. Didn't the EC sniff out the cutoff Upper Low and it's slow movement E bound that will now become the Mid Atlantic Snow Event this coming weekend while the GFS was far more progressive? We shall see. As far as guidance goes. This pattern was projected waaay back in Mid November. Just something to keep in mind.

216 Hrs



240 Hrs

Is the cutoff low you are seeing the one off the west coast of Mexico (to the west of the Baja) at 216 hours and the low that appears over south Texas (Corpus Christi) at 240 hours?


Would it be cold enough at that time for frozen precipitation or would we have to hope for additional cooling under the upper level low similar to what happened last year?


Two things seem likely at the moment: (1) it will be cold in Texas from Christmas perhaps through New Year's Day; and (2) the east coast may have more snow then they can handle, even by their standards.

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO EAST TEXAS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND.

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS FAR AS THE DEPTH
AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF DOES
LINGER SOME PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP AS ALL RAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHRISTMAS
EVE WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ok so perhaps someone can help me out.

So at this point snow (frozen precip) and cold for Christmas is out of the question?

What about the Arctic dump of air after that?

Perhaps I am just reading the latest posts wrong, but it seems that for some reason the attitude has changed about what is going to happen now.......

The "stepping down" process continues next week just prior to Christmas with a strong Arctic front and very potent Winter Storm from CO/N MX eastward. The "dump" as you call it, will occur behind the Winter Storm as Arctic Air surges very far S in MX. I think folks have had a lot of hopes for a widespread snow event for Christmas that the GFS was painting. It is only December 17th. The snowiest months climo wise are January and February in TX. Perhaps the Dec 4th "teaser" event in SE TX /SW LA raised some hopes a bit. We have not even "officially" entered the Winter Season.

Im not trying to be negative or anything, but many people were saying the same thing about last year's snow miracle and that winter didn't even start yet. The rest of the real winter didn't really do much. Though I am much more optimistic this year as the players involved have somewhat anted up

You should be very optimistic at least as far as cold.

For example, the average temp to date for Corpus has been 58. Last year for the whole month it was 71. This is before the calender winter has even been reached.

[Ntxw]

I just hope if there is any snow or ice it will be during this stretch when people are home to enjoy it and especially on the holidays. As much as I'd like a day off school\work those days will have to be made up and cause a bigger mess anyway.

[msstateguy83]

kfor tv ch 4 nbc affilate out of okc 7 day forecast... they are sure tending the numbers down =)

[gofrogs]

CBS 11 in dalls says high of 35 on christmas eve y thats not what the models are showing could someone help me out . . . if its thirty five iwth precip that could be fun lol

[severe]

kfor tv ch 4 nbc affilate out of okc 7 day forecast... they are sure tending the numbers down =)

Yeah, too bad that's for Oklahoma and NOT Texas.
You could be frolicking in a winter wonderland while we have highs in the 50's, especially here in southeast Texas.
Good for you looks exciting.

[msstateguy83]

iam not in ok lol wichita falls here but close enough to the border maybe we will get a winter wonderland over this way =) yeah does not look good as far south as you are at this point, but there is still time for change.

[snow and ice]

If you live a long the I-30 corridor from Dallas to Little Rock, the I-20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta Ga., the I-40 corridor from Little Rock to Asheville NC, business is about to pick up in a big way starting the middle-end of next week, continuing for some time to come. This is 78 redux all over again. All the models are pointing in that direction now.

As far as next week is concerned, still too much run to run discrepancy on the first storm to make a call. However, the 12z EURO and the 18z GFS were in decent agreement on the track and speed of the storm. Both take the storm over northern Texas and east into Mississippi. However, once over Mississippi, the storm really slows its eastward progression before handing off the energy a long the atlantic coast. This could mean the possibility for wrap around snow flurries and snow showers for the extreme eastern and NE part of Texas. I also wouldn't rule out the possibility of a big severe weather outbreak(south of I-20 and east of I-35) if the storm intensifies faster than being forecast. This showed up on yesterday's run of the models.

That's what happened in December of 79 when Bossier City La had a strong f3 tornado shortly after Christmas. 8 hours after Bossier had the tornado, Texarkana, which is 60 miles to the north, was reporting snow and temperatures in the upper 20's. Two days later, was the infamous Cotton Bowl that was played in subzero wind chills. That was when Notre Dame, led by Joe Montana, came back and beat Houston. Several of the players on both teams suffered frost bite. Dallas was devastated by an ice storm the day before.

Link and excerpt about the game:
"Notre Dame won the toss and took the 20 mile per hour wind at its back for the first period. Houston insisted on kicking into the wind because the Cougars wanted Notre Dame to handle the ball first in the 20-degree cold.
The weather bureau said there was a chill factor of 6 degrees below zero, and the chill may have been partly responsible for the seven turnovers the Irish made."
http://www.mmbolding.com/bowls/Cotton_1979.htm

[wxgirl69]

wow!!!! we sure have slowed down on the postings. I guess things are dying down for our Christmas weather. BAHHHH HUMBUG!!!!

[Ntxw]

Or you can say we've hunkered down as we approach within the 7 days out time frame =P

[gofrogs]

Just waiting on the 00z gfs i got a good feeling about this one.