Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

[attallaman]

What kind of weather can I expect here along the MS Gulf Coast during that time? Any wintry precip or just cold rain?

[Brent]

What kind of weather can I expect here along the MS Gulf Coast during that time? Any wintry precip or just cold rain?

As of now, cold rain, but still a lot of time for things to change.

[PTPatrick]

0z GFS was a HUGE swing in the track for the christmas eve storm. 18z had it going throught he southeast with some flurries in the area of the southeast by christmas and the day after.

0z takes the storm from OK to the Great lakes...BIG BIG difference. models still on the crack rock.

[Brent]

0z GFS=snow cancel for everybody.

Plenty of time for it to change, but eh.

[brunota2003]

Those model images above, the blue line labeled 0c, is that the freezing line? I saw on the map it says that those are the 2m temps

[Brent]

Those model images above, the blue line labeled 0c, is that the freezing line? I saw on the map it says that those are the 2m temps

Yes, it's the freeze line at 2m. It's a general rain/snow line

[Brent]

Oh look, a lovely cold pouring rain with flooding.

Meanwhile I'm watching NC/VA get buried in snow. I am so over this.

The Christmas storm isn't looking good. What else is new?

[Brent]

Birmingham:


MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. MAY SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE EURO
BRINGING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD FOR THE
PERIOD FROM CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THE ORDER
OF -10C AT 850 MB ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE
SHALLOW AND LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SCENARIO
IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

[Brent]

[Brent]

[RNGR]

00z GFS has another huge hard freeze/snowstorm for the south

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

[carolina_73]

That would be after New Years right?

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: That would be after New Years right?

Probably around the 4th in your area.

[LaBreeze]

:uarrow: That would be after New Years right?

Probably around the 4th in your area.

I just don't see this happening. I may be wrong - vbhoutex, do you think this will pan out?

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: That would be after New Years right?

Probably around the 4th in your area.

I just don't see this happening. I may be wrong - vbhoutex, do you think this will pan out?

Can you say La-La land? What I find interesting about it is we have seen similar to this previously by the models in about the same time frame. So that to me begs the question, what are the models picking up on? We may still be seeing the signals of a continued step down into a colder regime(makes sense because it is winter) than most of us in the South are used to. with a more active Southern jet this winter it means that if some of what we think we see or do see in these models that our Southern weather could indeed get more interesting this winter. Bottom line is that I would be surprised if the epic blizzard depicted on that run pans out in the South, but I do see us still moving into a colder and stormier period in the short term-meaning the next two weeks or more.

[LaBreeze]

I agree whole-heartedly vbhoutex. What you are saying makes a lot of sense to me. I'm just glad we've got some sun for a few days!

[RNGR]

yeah i guess anything is possible. this is always the problem with loving weather, you want to see something spectacular but it almost never happens. I remember living in south Florida and getting upset when a cat2 missed me. then finally in 2005 I got to see the full force or hurricane Wilma. it was awesome. but since I got the chance to see 100-115 mph winds I wont complain anymore lol

btw I was in Pompano Beach

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's New Orleans, LA
NWS afternoon discussion. I wonder what's the "interesting" part they are referring to?


LONG TERM...
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
PICTURE AROUND TUE OR WED OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FALLS WELL OUTSIDE OF
OUR FCAST PACK BUT THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE SFC
LOW MAY MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, the 12z GFS today is depicting the coldest air of the season for the deep south for the first week of Jan. Let's see if it hangs onto this.