Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Lets all sing for it let it snow let it snow let it snow!

[gofrogs]

When does it start running

[Ntxw]

I believe 11 eastern so 10 your time

[snow and ice]

The pattern keeps repeating in the long range:

12z Ensembles:
192-276hr.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21712.html
288-372hr.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21712.html

[HockeyTx82]

I am not sure how to read those maps, what pattern and what does it mean?

[srainhoutx]

The pattern keeps repeating in the long range:

12z Ensembles:
192-276hr.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21712.html
288-372hr.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21712.html

Yep. Going to be a long few weeks.

[snow and ice]

:uarrow:

I am not sure how to read those maps, what pattern and what does it mean?

Continued reinforcing shots of cold air and cyclogenesis in the GOM. BTW, the 0z GFS is already running.

[gofrogs]

So its looking better am i right

[gofrogs]

Whats it saying anybody know.

[LaBreeze]

Local met just stated that our usual chances for a "white" Christmas are 1 in a 1,000. Then he said that this year it seems to be looking like 1 in a 100. Interesting that he is venturing out to say it this far out. He usually is not one to do this.

[snow and ice]

Whats it saying anybody know.

This is incredible. Yesterday's runs were showing a major nor'easter. Now, according to the 0z run of the GFS, the east coast will be basking in 50-60 degree temperatures mid Christmas week. The major change is the storm track. It starts in Oklahoma, then drops into NE Texas, takes off N-NE nearly paralleling the Mississippi River into the Great Lakes. For Texas, the run is a lot colder than the runs of yesterday. But, the only winter weather would be flurries in the Northern and eastern parts of the state. Looks like severe weather would be an issue south of I-20. In summation, in one run, the model went from a nor' easter to nothing for the east coast. All I can say is stay tuned.

[wxgirl69]

Lets all sing for it let it snow let it snow let it snow!

let it snow let it snow let it snow!!!! ;D

[snow and ice]

A study in contrast:

18z GFS yesterday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
0z GFS tonight:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml

[snow and ice]

Just got through looking at the entire run of the 0Z run of the GFS. In summation, it looks stormy and cold to very cold for the next two weeks, starting the middle of next week.

0z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[rainman31]

So on the 10 o'clock news channel 8 here in Dallas is calling for a high of 49 next Thursday and channel 11 is calling for a high of 35 the same day.

[southerngale]

So y'all wanna sing Let it Snow? All together now...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN7LW0Y00kE[/youtube]

[Portastorm]

I don't believe the 0z GFS and 0z Euro can be in better agreement. Below are both models depiction of the 500mb flow at 168 hours (Christmas Day). Cold for Texas? You better believe it! Probably 15-20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. Snow or ice? Uh, not looking too good for that.

The 0z GFS



The 0z Euro

[gboudx]

No joy from DFW NWS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009/
FOG IS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
SOME DENSE FOG. WE/LL MONITOR AND ISSUE AND ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TODAY. DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT CAA WITH THIS FRONT...THUS LITTLE CHANGE IN
MAX/MIN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S.

TONIGHTS ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. WEST COAST RIDGING WILL
GIVE WAY TO A NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE MONDAY. ENERGY COMING DOWN OUT OF CANADA WILL MERGE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...FORMING A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY BY
CHRISTMAS EVE. A STRONG WINTER CYCLONE WILL FORM IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND EJECT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
ALONG WITH UNSTABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG CAA AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
SHOULD BRING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY TO AN END
AS ISENTROPIC NEGATIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION INCREASES. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL DROP TO MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...THUS WE/VE
UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY.

SORRY KIDS...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN
NORTH TEXAS THIS YEAR.

I'll take a "white" any day.

[srainhoutx]

I don't believe the 0z GFS and 0z Euro can be in better agreement. Below are both models depiction of the 500mb flow at 168 hours (Christmas Day). Cold for Texas? You better believe it! Probably 15-20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. Snow or ice? Uh, not looking too good for that.

The 0z GFS



The 0z Euro

Looks very chilly for Christmas Day. Things begin to get interesting in the period between Christmas and New Years Day though. With very a cold air mass in place and an active N/NW Flow Aloft with reinforcing surges of much colder air as well as a noisy SJT, the stage is being set for what appears to be 'active' period. Add to the mix any embedded shortwave activity that cannot be forecast at this range in the Upper N/NW flow as well as a surface Low developing yet again in the NW GOM, the stage may be set for some wintry weather for many across TX and the S Plains. Stay Tuned.

[snow and ice]

I don't believe the 0z GFS and 0z Euro can be in better agreement. Below are both models depiction of the 500mb flow at 168 hours (Christmas Day). Cold for Texas? You better believe it! Probably 15-20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. Snow or ice? Uh, not looking too good for that.

The 0z GFS



The 0z Euro

Other than some wrap around flurries in Northern and NE Texas, winter precipitation has never really been on the table as far as I have been concerned. The chances for real winter precipitation starts for the period between Christmas and New Years after the cold air is already in place. I think there is a very good chance we'll see Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm watches, rather than winter storm watches next week as we transition to a cold and stormy period.

The winter of 78 didn't see any wintry precipitation in the northern half of the state until the beginning of the year. However, there were several cold shots at the end of December of 77.