Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Alright folks. I have to run for now, but the 12Z ECMWF as well as the CMC will likely start some conversation back in the thread again.

I'm trying hard not to say much ... but for those who haven't seen those runs yet, the Arctic front around Christmas looks "wetter" -- before AND after -- on these runs than previous runs. But, we gotta keep in mind it is just one run. If these solutions are showing up Sunday and Monday ... then it'll be time to buy those ice scrapers and snowplows. Heh, heh.

I couldn't resist, Portastorm... And Big O, this was what I was suggesting yesterday RE the EC but wanted to see how things played out a couple of more runs to make sure what the EC was trying to 'sniff out'...

Hmmm...


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 12Z MON DEC 21 2009 - 12Z FRI DEC 25 2009

WE REMAIN IN A QUITE INTERESTING AND STORMY HOLIDAY WEATHER
PATTERN FOR OUR FINE NATION.

SHORT RANGE DIFFERENCES WITH ENERGY DETAILS/INTERACTIONS REACHING
WRN NOAM...SEE OUR PMDHMD DISCUSSION...BECOME MORE ROBUST
DOWNSTREAM MIDWEEK THROUGH CHRISTMAS. WHILE PLAUSIBLE...WE REMAIN
SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z/18 ECMWF TREND TO SUCH DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK TO
CHRISTMAS DESPITE CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND GEM GLOBAL UNDER AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ALOFT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A DECENT PARENT LOW THAT WILL FOCUS QUITE A SWATH OF
WRAP-AROUND HEAVY SNOWS CONSIDERING INFLOW/LIFT...BUT THE 00 UTC
UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED THE BULK OF ENERGY MORE
SUPPRESSED BY A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. THE 12 UTC UKMET/ECMWF
NOW ALSO FAVOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT NOT THE 12 UTC
GFS/CANADIAN. ALL OF THESE 12 UTC MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED
WITH THEIR 00 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS RESPECTIVELY EXCEPT FOR THE
ECMWF THAT HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TOWARD A MORE SRN
EMPHASIS. THIS TREND LEADS TO MORE RAPID ENERGY TRANSFER AND HEAVY
WINTER PCPN POTENTIAL INTO/AROUND A TRIPLE POINT LOW MORE ACROSS
THE SRN US AND THEN ERN US COASTAL SYSTEM AS DID A CLUSTER OF THE
LAST SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SOME OLDER DETERMINISTIC
RUNS. THE STRONG BLOCK HELD IN PLACE BY THE NEGATIVE NAO COULD
ACT TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION UNLESS THERE IS A MORE ROBUST PATTERN DESTABILIZATION.

ACCORDINGLY...FINAL HPC PROGS MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AND REMAIN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF DAYS 3/4 BEFORE SWITCHING
TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES WED-CHRISTMAS.
CISCO/SCHICHTEL

[southerngale]

It might snow! It might not. It might snow! It might not. It might snow!

[cheezyWXguy]

Alright folks. I have to run for now, but the 12Z ECMWF as well as the CMC will likely start some conversation back in the thread again.

I'm trying hard not to say much ... but for those who haven't seen those runs yet, the Arctic front around Christmas looks "wetter" -- before AND after -- on these runs than previous runs. But, we gotta keep in mind it is just one run. If these solutions are showing up Sunday and Monday ... then it'll be time to buy those ice scrapers and snowplows. Heh, heh.

I couldn't resist, Portastorm... And Big O, this was what I was suggesting yesterday RE the EC but wanted to see how things played out a couple of more runs to make sure what the EC was trying to 'sniff out'...

Hmmm...
So does a weaker great lakes low mean more energy for us in the southern plains? Someones gonna hafta explain this to me.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

VALID 12Z MON DEC 21 2009 - 12Z FRI DEC 25 2009

WE REMAIN IN A QUITE INTERESTING AND STORMY HOLIDAY WEATHER
PATTERN FOR OUR FINE NATION.

SHORT RANGE DIFFERENCES WITH ENERGY DETAILS/INTERACTIONS REACHING
WRN NOAM...SEE OUR PMDHMD DISCUSSION...BECOME MORE ROBUST
DOWNSTREAM MIDWEEK THROUGH CHRISTMAS. WHILE PLAUSIBLE...WE REMAIN
SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z/18 ECMWF TREND TO SUCH DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK TO
CHRISTMAS DESPITE CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND GEM GLOBAL UNDER AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ALOFT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A DECENT PARENT LOW THAT WILL FOCUS QUITE A SWATH OF
WRAP-AROUND HEAVY SNOWS CONSIDERING INFLOW/LIFT...BUT THE 00 UTC
UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED THE BULK OF ENERGY MORE
SUPPRESSED BY A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. THE 12 UTC UKMET/ECMWF
NOW ALSO FAVOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION...BUT NOT THE 12 UTC
GFS/CANADIAN. ALL OF THESE 12 UTC MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED
WITH THEIR 00 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS RESPECTIVELY EXCEPT FOR THE
ECMWF THAT HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TOWARD A MORE SRN
EMPHASIS. THIS TREND LEADS TO MORE RAPID ENERGY TRANSFER AND HEAVY
WINTER PCPN POTENTIAL INTO/AROUND A TRIPLE POINT LOW MORE ACROSS
THE SRN US AND THEN ERN US COASTAL SYSTEM AS DID A CLUSTER OF THE
LAST SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SOME OLDER DETERMINISTIC
RUNS. THE STRONG BLOCK HELD IN PLACE BY THE NEGATIVE NAO COULD
ACT TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION UNLESS THERE IS A MORE ROBUST PATTERN DESTABILIZATION.

ACCORDINGLY...FINAL HPC PROGS MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AND REMAIN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF DAYS 3/4 BEFORE SWITCHING
TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES WED-CHRISTMAS.
CISCO/SCHICHTEL

[Ntxw]

I think I should take Portastorm's advice and get my snow removal machine ready.

[Portastorm]

I think I should take Portastorm's advice and get my snow removal machine ready.

Oh no you don't ... don't pin that on me!

I said, if the models are showing this same thing in a few days ... THEN ... you can consider such a purchase. You know, I have been known to get overly excited about models runs and winter storms in Texas in the past.

[jasons2k]

It might snow! It might not. It might snow! It might not. It might snow!

hehe - yep.

As Harold Taft used to say: "Don't put snow in the forecast until you see it falling from the sky"

[Ntxw]

I think I should take Portastorm's advice and get my snow removal machine ready.

Oh no you don't ... don't pin that on me!

I said, if the models are showing this same thing in a few days ... THEN ... you can consider such a purchase. You know, I have been known to get overly excited about models runs and winter storms in Texas in the past.

Is that what fuels the Austin Omega block?

[srainhoutx]

I do have to run folks but cheezyWXguy, there have been some "hints" that the Polar Vortex might become suppressed S into the Plains States. That is a big factor in how things will eventually play out. I will say as I have stated before, the "stepping down" process in regards to the Colder temps with each stronger Arctic Airmass is continuing to look good and we will just have to see what the data gives us in the coming days. The trends continue to look good and I'm sure enjoying the Sunshine, while it lasts.

[gofrogs]

What should i expect in dfw iaj confused what all is going on. ARe thing s looking betterright knw becaue i looked over the gfs and shows nothing towwrite home aobut in the coming days, it shows precip and temsp in the upper thirties 11 12 days out but ill take that with a grain of salt.

[wgdade]

http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/s ... efore.html

My blog write up today on the Christmas Week Storm. Snow chances not looking too good right now but, they are not at 0%. I know this is a winter weather thread but, the severe potential is looking greater with each model run. I will say I am somewhat surprised by the lack of cold temperatures wrapping around this system on the 12Z run today. I don't buy it one bit right now. I should be much colder than advertised.

[Ntxw]

What should i expect in dfw iaj confused what all is going on. ARe thing s looking betterright knw becaue i looked over the gfs and shows nothing towwrite home aobut in the coming days, it shows precip and temsp in the upper thirties 11 12 days out but ill take that with a grain of salt.

I don't have much experience from reading the EC (euro model that usually sets trend and has a good track record) but raw, it seems to show a much more intense low with significant wrap around moisture starting in the southern plains, probably a good snow around Christmas or thereafter for parts of Texas, Oklahoma north\northeastward. Much different call vs the gfs. Lets see if the runs continue and just maybe the gfs will follow suit

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE 40S.

THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION DOES LINGER A LITTLE PRECIP THURSDAY WHILE THE
GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MORE
QUICKLY WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
OF THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON IT IN THE COMING DAYS.

I think the guys in FTW are going to be off quite abit on temps for Christmas Eve/Day. Temps may not make it out of the 30's

[mysterymachinebl]

I think the guys in FTW are going to be off quite abit on temps for Christmas Eve/Day. Temps may not make it out of the 30's

Channel 11 seems to think that's the case.

[Ntxw]

The 18z gfs is now showing the low\storm further south.

[Nederlander]

Can someone post a link for the 18z gfs

[Ntxw]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_s.shtml

[double D]

Is it just me or is the GFS not only trended drier, but also a tad warmer with each new run?

[attallaman]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/model_s.shtml

Someone like myself who doesn't understand what all of those numbers mean what do all of those numbers mean?

[Ntxw]

The ecmwf (euro) has trended toward a very cold and potentially (snowy\icy) scenario. They continue to trend southward. This has changed from earlier runs and the euro is notorious for setting trends. Now that we are getting closer, within a week time frame, it's beginning to get clearer about what could happen. Given this has only been one run, if the trend continues I would expect the gfs to follow suit. The window for snow\ice around Christmas has not closed as of yet.

[HockeyTx82]

Cold, Warm, Snow, No Snow, Severe Weather, AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am so confused. I think I am going to stay off this site until Monday or Tuesday.