Caribbean - Central America Weather

[lrak]

The high surf advisory and small craft warning is still in effect for Barbados with swells as high as 15 feet!

Looks at airline ticket prices....drool! Hmmmm....return all Christmas presents for tickets....


http://www.surfing-barbados.com/content ... n_barbados

[cycloneye]

The high surf advisory and small craft warning is still in effect for Barbados with swells as high as 15 feet!

Looks at airline ticket prices....drool! Hmmmm....return all Christmas presents for tickets....


http://www.surfing-barbados.com/content ... n_barbados

Welcome to our Caribbean / Centralamerica tent thread.Before you go to Barbados,you may want to make a stop in Puerto Rico as there are several surf sites that you may like to surf.

http://www.comoestaeso.com/cms/home/37- ... a-ocho-cam

[caribepr]

Maybe we'll get snow! I'd rather that than rain...but we don't get long lasting rains and this coolness is divine. In fact, I'd say it's just about perfection right now...sun is out, breeze is on, sky is blue...wish everyone could feel this afternoon here right this minute

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

Here is the long range discission about possible scenario for Christmas day.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE WEEK THAT COULD PUSH THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH OR ACTUALLY
REACH AND CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.The low temperature in Puerto Rico this morning was 60F in Adjuntas at the cordillera central mountains. Certainly,during the past few nights,it has been fresh with the breeze comming from the NE.But change is in the horizon as winds will blow from the SE bringing above average temps this weekend and early next week.The big question is if the so much anticipated cold front that will move thru the Western Atlantic will make it to the northern Antilles by Christmas eve or Christmas day or will stall north of the islands.

[Gustywind]

Hi myfriends glad to see you . Yesterday was pretty chilly . Hopefully things are improving but very slightly.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171852
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST THU DEC 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC LIFTS EASTWARD...AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THEN
ENTERS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. A GENERAL EAST
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW CONTINUED TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS EVEN MORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE EAST NORTHEAST TRADES RELAX ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINED DRY AND STABLE...WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.17 INS OR
LESS. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY...A BAND OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CREATED BY THE INDUCED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY... WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...
THE LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

[b]LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE...
AND A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE. MODEL
HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
POPS AREA FORECAST FOR NOW.&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH ACROSS TISX...TNCM AND
TKPK FROM 171800Z TO 180000Z. A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS
AND THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS. MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 86 / 20 30 20 40
STT 74 85 75 84 / 20 50 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

17/09[/b]

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.It looks like the so much advertised cold front will not make it to the Antilles.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI DEC 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TODAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE MAY TEND TO
FLATTEN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP TROUGHINESS ENCOMPASSES
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...IT APPEARS
THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST THAT WAS ADVERTISED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DELAYED OR MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL. THUS...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCALLY...MORE MID
LEVEL RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED SHOULD AT LEAST KEEP A LID ON ANY
WIDESPREAD OR DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TODAY...BUT STILL WITH
OCCASIONAL PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...AN AREA OF MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...
ALLOWING THIS MOISTURE TO ENCROACH. THIS MOISTURE NOW APPEARS THAT
IT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DO NOT FORESEE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AS DAY SHIFT
INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.It looks like the so much advertised cold front will not make it to the Antilles.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI DEC 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TODAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE MAY TEND TO
FLATTEN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP TROUGHINESS ENCOMPASSES
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...IT APPEARS
THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST THAT WAS ADVERTISED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DELAYED OR MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL. THUS...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCALLY...MORE MID
LEVEL RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED SHOULD AT LEAST KEEP A LID ON ANY
WIDESPREAD OR DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TODAY...BUT STILL WITH
OCCASIONAL PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...AN AREA OF MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...
ALLOWING THIS MOISTURE TO ENCROACH. THIS MOISTURE NOW APPEARS THAT
IT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DO NOT FORESEE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT AS DAY SHIFT
INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.

So good news for us Cycloneye .

[cycloneye]

So good news for us Cycloneye .

Gustywind,I like cold fronts a lot because they bring fresh breezes with showers and I like that kind of weather. However,I dont like the extremes like fronts stalled that cause floodings as we had in recent history like the Three Kings day of 1992 when a massive flooding event took place.

[Macrocane]

Finally after a month without cold fronts in Centralamerica we're going to have one this weekend into early next week. El Niño is taking a toll on the number of cold fronts that affetc the area, generally we have 3 events in december but this weekend's cold front will be the first of the month. Winds are already getting a little stronger but it's because of a ridge that will be weakening during the day, the ridge that will really affect us will build during saturday. I will post the observations of winds and temperature on the winter weather forum when the event is over and I will post the advisories issued by the local met office on this thread. By the way, last night we had some rain something unusual for december.

[cycloneye]

Finally after a month without cold fronts in Centralamerica we're going to have one this weekend into early next week. El Niño is taking a toll on the number of cold fronts that affetc the area, generally we have 3 events in december but this weekend's cold front will be the first of the month. Winds are already getting a little stronger but it's because of a ridge that will be weakening during the day, the ridge that will really affect us will build during saturday. I will post the observations of winds and temperature on the winter weather forum when the event is over and I will post the advisories issued by the local met office on this thread. By the way, last night we had some rain something unusual for december.

Ok good deal my friend.Which months are the driest there? In Puerto Rico,Febuary and March are the driest months.

[Macrocane]

Ok good deal my friend.Which months are the driest there? In Puerto Rico,Febuary and March are the driest months.

January with an average of 5 mm (0.2 inches) and february with 2 mm (0.08 inches) are the driest months december is the 3rd driest with an average of 9 mm (0.35 inches) of rainfall. Last night we had 3 mm, 1/3 of december's total rainfall.

[Gustywind]

So good news for us Cycloneye .

Gustywind,I like cold fronts a lot because they bring fresh breezes with showers and I like that kind of weather. However,I dont like the extremes like fronts stalled that cause floodings as we had in recent history like the Three Kings day of 1992 when a massive flooding event took place.

Lol Luis i understand you're definitely right, agree with you

[cycloneye]

So far December has been with below average rainfall in San Juan,Puerto Rico.However,for the entire year the rainfall has been above average.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            T             0.30 1959   0.14  -0.14     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    1.66                      2.93  -1.27     2.15
  SINCE DEC 1      1.66                      2.93  -1.27     2.15
  SINCE JAN 1     64.69                     49.12  15.57    52.21

[cycloneye]

They still are not sure if the cold front will make it or not to the Antilles.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST FRI DEC 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DIGS INTO THE GMEX
AND WRN CARIBBEAN HELPING DRAW A FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. K INDEX AND PWAT FCST TO RISE RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 30 AND 1.70 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. ALREADY
SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
EXPECTING A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER CVRG OVERNIGHT WITH NMRS
CVRG TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PR AND COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR TOMORROW AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TOPS TO -53C. COULD EVEN BE SOME
THUNDER TOMORROW OVER LAND AS SUBSIDENCE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER.

THINGS DRY OUT RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH WED. AFTER WED...RIDGE RETREATS FURTHER EAST AS A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO GMEX/WRN CARIBBEAN AND HELPS BRING A COLD FRONT
CLOSE TO THE AREA. STILL NOT SOLD ON THE IDEA OF SEEING ANY FRONTS
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BUT DOES LOOK LIKE A SIG INCREASE IN
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SWRLY AND HELP
ADVECTS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SWRN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.For those who like to go sailing,its better to stay in port this weekend as there is a small craft advisory and a high surf advisory.Is still uncertain if the so much advertised cold front will reach the Antilles but it will be a close call so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST SAT DEC 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LOCALLY...MORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED
SHOULD AT LEAST KEEP A LID ON ANY WIDESPREAD OR DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED...AN AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...AS THE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB CONTINUES
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...ALLOWING THIS MOISTURE TO
ENCROACH. STILL APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
FA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...DO NOT
FORESEE ANY WIDESPREAD OR DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...BUT DID
CONTINUE TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INDICATED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AFTER
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...THAT A COLD FRONT
OR TWO WILL GET HUNG UP AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY MOVE CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME.
STAY TUNED.

ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE ANOTHER BORDERLINE SITUATION...WE OPTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 8 AM AST THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXCEPT ST
CROIX. EXPECT MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS TO PRODUCE
BREAKING WAVES OF 10 FEET OR GREATER...ALONG WITH RIP CURRENTS...
MAKING FOR DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

Small Craft Advisory

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST SAT DEC 19 2009

...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS...

.MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY...MAKING FOR ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.

AMZ710-191700-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-091220T1600Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
453 AM AST SAT DEC 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON AST SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

High Surf Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 AM AST SAT DEC 19 2009

...INCREASING NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-191900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0013.091219T1200Z-091220T1400Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
338 AM AST SAT DEC 19 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM AST
SUNDAY...

LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY...RESULTING IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 10 FEET...OR LARGER...ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE
TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.


THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.6 FEET AT 11:20 AM AST
0.8 FEET AT 10:30 PM AST

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.3 FEET AT 11:35 AM AST

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[Macrocane]

Here is the link for today's forecast in El Salvador: http://www.snet.gob.sv/ver/meteorologia/pronostico/24+horas/

Raw Translation:

Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected, some isolated showers cannot be discarded especially in the mountanious areas on the northeastern part of the country. Northerly winds are expected, generally of a moderate intensity in the 10-25 km/h range with gusts between 30-35 km/h, the winds will be enhanced at night time. The temperatures will drop in the nocturnal hours.

Dominant systems: A cold front is observed in the Caribbean, its related high pressure system will create a moderate "northerly winds" situation. At the same time moisture is moving from the Pacific enhanced due to upper level patterns and that may prouce isolated showers.

At this time, we have very little wind, I think they will begin to accelerate later this afternoon or at night, let's see what happens.

[cycloneye]

The Soufriere Volcano at the island of Montserrat has been very active this week and the alert level is mantained at 4.With the change in the wind direction,some of the ash plume may reach the U.S. and British Virgin islands.

http://www.montserratvolcanoobservatory ... 95&lang=es

http://www.montserratvolcanoobservatory.info/

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY FOR
AERODROMES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
MONTSERRAT VOLCANIC OBSERVATORY REPORTS THAT THE ASH PLUME BEING
EMITTED HAS BASES OF 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT IT IS PASSING DIRECTLY OVER SAINT KITTS AT THE
MOMENT. THE PLUME WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AND
MAY MOVE OVER SAINT CROIX. AT THE MOMENT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE DIFFUSE ON ARRIVAL THERE.


For those who dont know where the Soufriere volcano is located,here is a sattelite image of the area.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all .

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 200832
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SUN DEC 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...WITH PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WITH
THIS LIGHT WIND FLOW...EXPECT INCREASED LOCAL EFFECTS...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE.
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL END UP STALLING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE BEING STEERED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...WITH LIMITED LOCALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY...DUE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS THE AREA...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASE THE
WEATHER AND CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT MINIMAL
OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20/16Z
WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJPS THROUGH 12/13Z. AFT 20/16Z...A VCSH
OR SHRA MAY BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS ACROSS TJBQ FROM
20/17-20/21Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER
OF TAF SITES. VA CONTINUES TO IMPACT TKPK THIS MORNING AND IS
PASSING THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE BETWEEN TIST AND TNCM. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING THIS VA TO NEAR TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS COMBINED WITH MORE MODERATE
NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED ROUGH AND CONFUSED
SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THESE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH A BATCH OF NORTHWESTERLY
SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 85 74 / 20 0 20 20
STT 84 75 85 74 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-741-742.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710-715-722-725-732.

&&

$$

15/04