Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS is rolling and at 120 hours it has the low pressure on Christmas Eve further northwest than the 0z run. This is more in line with what the 0z Euro showed.

Also noticed a very persistant stormy/chilly pattern seting up behind the Pre Christmas Storm. The door is opening for what will like be a very interesting period through the New Years time frame. Stepping Down...

True, true srainhoutx! This run of the GFS continues its "trend" of showing a massive winter storm pounding Texas and the Southern Plains late in its run (at about 300 hours and beyond). The model always seems to be showing that late in the run. Will it ever come to fruition? Well, I'm sure we'll speculate hours on end here about that like we always do!

[vbhoutex]

The 12z GFS is rolling and at 120 hours it has the low pressure on Christmas Eve further northwest than the 0z run. This is more in line with what the 0z Euro showed.

Also noticed a very persistent stormy/chilly pattern setting up behind the Pre Christmas Storm. The door is opening for what will likely be a very interesting period through the New Years time frame. Stepping Down...

I've been watching the models pretty intently and I really can't add a lot to these discussions. I will back up srainhoutx with his analysis though. The biggest thing I have noticed for the last several days is the TREND in the models, even with the flip flopping we have seen, and that trend is to colder and stormier. I don't hold onto the precip parts of these models too closely till we get a lot closer in. There are way too many variables that affect moisture feed to dial in on something this far out, even though we are at a week now. It does appear to me that Texas will be having what at least some of us consider a cold Christmas and IF the models do verify some of our N TX friends may indeed see at least some flurries for Christmas or the day after.

[Ntxw]

Monday is taking too long! lol the pre-trustable period for the models are agonizinggg

[Ntxw]

12z EC continues it's trend, Im liking the prospects

[iorange55]

Looked to me like it tracked a little further north, but I'm not great with the EURO maps, so I could be wrong.

[Ntxw]

Looked to me like it tracked a little further north, but I'm not great with the EURO maps, so I could be wrong.

Yes, but it is wetter than previous runs. If there is snow, more than likely it will be from the wrap around moisture.

[msstateguy83]

the latest hwo from oun is more strongly worded
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1138 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP DRY AND STABLE AIR FLOWING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY DEC 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...ZERO PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THAT PERIOD...LIFT MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING AT MID WEEK...COLD
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS COULD YIELD VERY LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES...LASTING INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

IT IS ALSO LIKELY THAT PART OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE ICE AND
SNOW WHICH MAY ACCUMULATE AND CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT THIS WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OR HOW LARGE AN AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED. THE FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE DETAILED AS THE STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AT A MINIMUM...PEOPLE
SHOULD PREPARE FOR COLD WEATHER AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY DECEMBER 20.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Update Final Extened Disco...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
155 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 22 2009 - 12Z SAT DEC 26 2009

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN ACTIVE FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT THAT BY MIDWEEK IS PRIMARILY COMPRISED OF AN
AMPLIFIED WEST-CENTRAL US TROUGH SANDWICHED BETWEEN AMPLIFIED NOAM
WEST COAST AND SERN US RIDGES...ALL LEADING INTO ERN
CANADIAN/GREENLAND BLOCKING WITH TROUGHING HELD DOWN OVER THE NERN
US. THIS PATTERN MANAGES TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ALOFT WITH THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST-CENTRAL TROUGHING SPREADING ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL US INTO LATE WEEK...EVEN AS HEIGHT FALLS HOLD/DIG
BACK TO VARIOUS DEGREES INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL US TO THE LEE OF THE
PERSISTENT NOAM AMERICAN WEST COAST RIDGE. HPC PROGS DEPICT A
WEST-CENTRAL US 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT THAT IS MOST IN LINE
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL
SOLUTION ENVELOPE.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AMPLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
ISSUES DOWNSTREAM...BUT WITH THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
ECMWF...00 UTC GUIDANCE WAS OVERALL TRENDING AWAY FROM THE IDEA OF
SUCH A HIGHLY DEVELOPED PARENT SYSTEM HEADING FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES MID-LATE WEEK. EVEN A
WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WITH
INFLOW/CONVERGENCE/LIFT...BUT THE GUIDANCE TREND FAVORED THE
TRANSFER OF MORE ENERGY AND WEATHER FOCUS INTO EAST-CENTRAL US
TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPMENT THEN ERN SEABOARD CYCLOGENESIS
HEADING THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THAT SOLUTION SEEMED A BETTER FIT WITH THE STRONG NEGATIVE NAO
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CANADA THAT TENDS TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH
LONGER THAN GUIDANCE OFTEN INDICATES...BUT REMAINS IN BATTLE WITH
POTENT SE US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHOSE PERSISTENCE COULD ALLOW
AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. TOWARD THAT
END...12 UTC GUIDANCE NOW HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE BACK TOWARD A MUCH
LESS SUPPRESSED AND DEEPER LOW SOLUTION UP TOWARD THE MIDWEST OVER
THE HOLIDAYS IN LEU OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. AM STILL LEERY TO
JUMP HPC CONTINUITY BASED ON THESE 12 UTC TRENDS...BUT IT SEEMS
PRUDENT TO AT LEAST CHANGE HPC PREFERENCE FROM THE 00 UTC GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO THE NEWER 12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE LESS SUPPRESSED 12 UTC GUIDANCE TREND.

ACCORDINGLY...FINAL HPC PRELIM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BASED FROM
THE 12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL MAINTAINS REASONABLE HPC
CONTINUITY AMID NOW EVEN GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN A
STORMY WINTER HOLIDAY PATTERN. ENSEMBLE MEANS MEAN HAVE OVERALL
OUTPERFORMED THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BY A NOT INSIGNIFICANT
MARGIN DURING THE LAST FOUR MONTHS AT THESE TIME FRAMES AND HAVE
BY AVERAGED NATURE SHOWED BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

The model mayhem continues.

[southerngale]

Further north... *sigh*

We need major southern shifts with each run to have a chance down here. I know, we DON'T have a chance, but what else am I going to watch for with winter weather, if not snow?

Always dreaming...

[Ntxw]

It's the holiday season, what better time to dream and ask for a miracle than now =P

[gofrogs]

Discussion...
a ridge of high pressure over the western United States will
translate eastward over the next few days while a trough develops
and moves onshore in the northwest. This pattern will keep North
Texas in dry west to northwest flow aloft through Monday. Low
level moisture will be on the increase Monday as a Lee trough
develops. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible by Tuesday as
abundant moisture interacts with increasing large scale lift from
the deepening trough over the Desert Southwest. The best rain/thunderstorm
chances will be in the eastern zones where moisture...instability
and lift will be most abundant. Rain and thunderstorm chances will
continue on Wednesday as the upper trough and associated cold
front move across the region. Rain and thunderstorm chances will
end from west to east Wednesday night as the strong system moves
into the Central Plains. GFS and European model (ecmwf) still indicate the
possibility of a little light wrap around precipitation near the Red
River Wednesday night/Thursday morning...but for now will only carry
10 probability of precipitation and no mention of weather. If later runs continue to track
the upper low the same...we will most likely introduce some light
frozen precipitation Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Thursday and
Christmas day should only be in the 40s and on the windy
side...especially Thursday.

Hmmm there at least talking aobut it this is from the dfw afd.

[Portastorm]

Looked to me like it tracked a little further north, but I'm not great with the EURO maps, so I could be wrong.

Yes, but it is wetter than previous runs. If there is snow, more than likely it will be from the wrap around moisture.

iorange55, you are right. The low on the 12z Euro run is further north and now tracks through Oklahoma and not north Texas like the 0z run of the Eurol suggested. Furthermore, I don't see "wetter" on this run. Actually, the moisture profile at the 700mb and 850mb levels is much less overall than what the 0z run had. If you're hoping for snow or even flurries in north Texas out of this deal, the 12z Euro run is not your friend.

[iorange55]

The GFS 18 continues with the same track and continues to bring Oklahoma City snow, but none for the DFW area maybe flurries to the north. So it's looking more and more like we'll just miss out.


Yay for Oklahoma though

[gofrogs]

What about after chrsitams becasuse i did not have high hopes for this storm.

[southerngale]

What about after chrsitams becasuse i did not have high hopes for this storm.

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[mrgolf]

Hi this is kevin,aka mrgolf, Have yall noticed the 9-10 day ecmwf with a low tracking toward south texas,and maybe inducing surface low in northwest gulf.Kinda interesting i thought.I know its 10 days out,but worth noting.I live around memphis tn.Im new on here,but i visit many weather forums.Whats yalls comments on it?

[attallaman]

What about after chrsitams becasuse i did not have high hopes for this storm.

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If you go to "User Control Panel" in the top right corner of any page, then go to "Profile," you can add your location and it will show up when you post. It's nice to know where someone is when you're reading their comments.

OT: Who dat gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat? Who dat? Who dat gonna beat dem Saints? Geaux Saints!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gofrogs]

I think a big event is coming you guys just wait and see i feel. The pattern is very nice shortly after christmas for one so tht oculd be our shot and people do not get to down becuase its not even winter yet we have january feburary and early march to get through os i think that it is going to be a very fun winter for us in north texas.

[Portastorm]

Oz GFS is running. Surface low development already looks further north than the 12z run for later this coming week. The 12z GFS had it near El Paso at 0z Wednesday (i.e. 6 pm central time on Tuesday). The new 0z run has it in east central New Mexico.

[Portastorm]

But at 90 hrs, the 0z has the surface low in NE Texas, near Texarkana, very close to where the earlier 12z run had it.