Snow or no next weekend Dec 20 Northeast

[Hurricanebob]

I'm pretty good but a little rusty with cold fronts, especially since I don't live in the north anymore... Anyway, I tried my best to pinpoint a good week (17th-22nd) to hit the NE to take my kids snow tubing but it seems I didn't do too well. I have always looked at the European model trends, and watched the NAO ... etc.. anyway, all looked good until the this coming week isn't warming enough in the northeast to allow for the front to slow. My fear is it will just sweep on through and there will be just cold dry air and no snow... For those wishing for a white Christmas coming to NYC, etc.. things at the moment still look hopeful as each run has flip flopped.

I'm at a loss, can someone PLEASE shed some insight? For a while, long range 5z would pick up on a storm, next run 12z nothing... What I'm trying to do is make a hotel reservation at a solid location free of rain in either the poconos where it is close to the I-95 corridor where coastal storms dump or north towards say Syracuse if it is going to be warmer and have show showers with rain. I guess that is the problem with roulette vacations in the northeast when you want to spend part skiing and tubing with kids and part in NYC...

Thanks

bob

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Head to Ontario or the Maritimes Bob (I can guarantee you'll find lots of white stuff there).

[Hurricanebob]

Head to Ontario or the Maritimes Bob (I can guarantee you'll find lots of white stuff there).

Oh ya, if only I could... we are going to NYC too and shopping for a couple days! A friend of mine just went about 200 mi N of Toronto (as the crow flies(as he put it))and said there was so much snow he didn't want to leave and wind so harsh he couldn't believe it.

my girls are native Floridians, I told 'em about that prospect and they were jumping. Me and my big mouth...

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Check this out: http://tiny.cc/vOSH0
Monday Dec 21 New York City
Hi: 28° Lo: 22°

Snow. High 28F and low 22F. Winds W at 15 mph. Air Quality: NA, UV Index: NA
80%

I made note of this as it's just before the kids official holiday. If you're in NYC, may complete your wish. Have fun!

[Hurricanebob]

Joe Bastardi prognosticates a big storm popping off the coast of NC and coming up starting the weekend... He said check out the Japanese model run. I might get more than I bargained for. I had followed my gut instincts and thought I'd hit on a decent storm but I never thought I'd hit like this... Two years ago, I came up and hit the same week and hit with a storm, same magnitude...

We'll see though... THANKS for the link!

Bob

[Stephanie]

Hmm, interesting forecast.

We rarely have a white Christmas. I think, Hurricanebob, that if you stayed in the Poconos or Catskills, they will be making snow for skiing and tubing so you won't have a problem there. The problem that you will face is that if there is a snowstorm along the East Coast, you're not going anywhere near NYC if you're still outside of the city or you won't be leaving at least for a day if you are in the city. The traffic and gridlock will be horrendous.

[weathermom]

unless he takes the train.......

local areas have started snowmaking and are hoping to open this weekend........

[Stephanie]

unless he takes the train.......

local areas have started snowmaking and are hoping to open this weekend........

Good point.

[brunota2003]

I know north of Syracuse got dumped on earlier this week/weekend. Lake effect snows turned on, and some areas recorded 40 inches of the white stuff (up in the Tug Hill region), with Watertown (just off post of where I'm stationed) recording 11 inches.

[Hurricanebob]

I picked the week and checked the maps and evidently I'm getting more than I wished for.

And to think I wanted snow.... HUH.. 35mph wind, so much for snow tubing... ha ha

Guess I'm not as rusty at this stuff as I thought!

Bob :o)

[cpdaman]

looks like you will do well

still a lot of tricks i think this storm will pull off......like possibly spreading a shield of snow up thru South central PA over thru NJ and then the question mark in my opinion is how much does the vERY VERY dry air combined with the low forecast to hit the blocking pattern to the north and TURN EASTWARD ...cut off snow amounts as you had ENE of Central NJ....I think this is the question some should be wondering.

predictions Roanoke BWI 26 DC 25 PHILLY 22 NYC 8 Hartford 4 PVD 3 BOS 2 New bedford 6



i think there's a very solid chance max totals fall just in a swath 50M SW of DC up thru Philly

on the other hand SNE could see a heavier snowfall but i think the low will track further SE then currently progged and gives them the shaft

[Stephanie]

I picked the week and checked the maps and evidently I'm getting more than I wished for.

And to think I wanted snow.... HUH.. 35mph wind, so much for snow tubing... ha ha

Guess I'm not as rusty at this stuff as I thought!

Bob :o)

You're pretty darn good I'd say!

[Dionne]

Nice call.....bob!!

[Hurricanebob]

We spent 2 hrs in the dark here in the hotel tonight thanks to this part of Mt Pocono, PA going dark due to ?? ... all I know is it is snowing like crazy vertically with wind ... driving snow, big flakes, drifting, and it is absolutely beautiful if you are not driving and safe ...

My measurement in a pre-wind blown state was at 6:00 prior to the Low cranking up the wind and driving the snow like this and there was about 4.0 inches here and I know rates are 1.5 to 2 per hr. BUT, it switches back and forth between a large flake and a fine almost sandy snow that does not accumulate, hence I can only assume it reduces the accumulation ratios.

If anyone were to ask what type flake it was... I'd say it is like the ones you see in extremely high elevations, the fine powder perfect, perfect for skiing. I'm getting up EARLY and going skiing tomorrow.


bob

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Then it looks like you got your wish to have snow for your trip north. Granted a bit more snow than expected.

Just watch those trees when skiing tomorrow, Bob. Want you to make it home to Florida safe and sound after such a wintery adventure as this.

WLD.

[Hurricanebob]

Ha ha... I find the older I get, the flatter the hill so the less likely the trees will impede my way... I am looking out the window lamenting what I wrote last night ... I DON'T think I'm venturing out. It is NOT pristine BY ANY MEANS. It is down right nasty.

ITS STILL SNOWING 6:40AM, granted, a lot is blowing and drifting... impossible to tell the amount but from my 20+ years living here, I'd say my guess is going to be wide at 8 to 12" there is NO WAY we got 4", impossible 6"... just no way, it popped at least 8" here in the Poconos..Before the wind started the kids were in the parking lot where the guy had plowed earlier and they were making a snow man and complaining they couldn't make one because it was too fluffy...anyway there was 4" there and that was at 7:30 and he plowed 4" and it snowed all night and heavy from say 8pm to whenever. It will be interesting what NYC ended up with if we got that much here! Places like this were supposed to come up lighter which means trouble for the cities.

Radar sites still show snow coming down although you can't tell from the third floor balcony window as all I see is the same as when I went to bed with better visibility. I must have seen PENN DOT trucks clearing the road 20 times...

Well, for us, there will be no NYC this year, it simply won't be worth the aggrivation ... but the upswing is my wife has to go to the OUTLET mall, ha ha ha and I am going to Camelback which is like 3 min away. I wanted to go to the city really bad for the time of year, not for shopping, I'm not into that.

[Stephanie]

You'll get to NYC some other time. At least your wife is still able to shop and you were able to ski!