Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

iam not so sure about grayson county with the low track across the red river, ne tracking further
west then that i would have to say *gainesville west* cooke, montague, clay & wichita counties
in n into nw tx... i also agree dallas-fortworth proper is basically slim pickin's but when you talk
about 'northern' texas that includes other areas ie, sherman-denison, denton, gainesville,bowie,
decatur, graham,jacksboro,exc,exc other then just dfw... so sorry for not being as exact with
locations... but i would say there is maybe a 2% chance of flurries in dfw proper.. west side
say just w of ft worth out towards m.wells to decatur maybe a 20% with better odds from gainesville
west to wichita falls then of course north into oklahoma.

edit: i would also though STRONGLY argue that a track as i preivously stated 100-150 miles either
north or south could be a HUGE factor in this forecast so some of north tx is not out of the woods
yet.. i mean by tomorrow's runs we can say for sure but dont let your guard down on winter wx
just because a model tells you one think today who says it will tell you that tomorrow?

edit 2: i also understand what ft worth just said BUT look at the zone forecast for some
of the counties near dfw and in dfw proper temps in the mid to upper 30s for LOWS wed
night! a drop of 5 degrees or so could be huge. so 1 the timing of the front and 2 the position
of the upper low will be key to all of this thats why iam saying anything could change in the next
48 hours leading up to this. YES most likely the current forecast of ok getting the most will stand
but how soon that front moves in, the track of the low is key to everything....

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI, the CMC came onboard with the coastal trough idea and colder air plunging S into Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley with a threat of wintry precip via a disturbance riding along the STJ in the 26th - 27th time frame. We shall see...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[gofrogs]

What does that spell for texas. north and south

[Ntxw]

For what it's worth, it is officially now winter . As for Texas, this means ever so closer to summer and the heat that ALWAYS (unlike the cold) can be counted on to make it's appearance

[srainhoutx]

What does that spell for texas. north and south

Here is the GGEM for the 26th - 27th time frame...

[gofrogs]

I dont know how to read that map effectivley could you please explain it thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, this is a very complicated and dynamic setup with the Pre Christmas Storm and what may occur. There will likely be many changes ahead in this forecasting headache. We have a severe threat as well as wintry weather potential in the span of a couple of days. What the GGEM (Canadian Ensemble) is suggesting is a Coastal Trough as well as an Upper Air disturbance (shortwave) riding along the Sub Tropical Jet. The GGEM is also suggesting much colder air than the GFS is depicting at this moment. I posted and e-mail from a fine Pro Met on our board Jeff Lindner of the Harris County Flood Control Distict this morning. It is probably on the previous page. This is a rather fluid event and Upper Air Sampling from ground observation location will continue to be fed into the model data sets. Just keep checking in and I'm sure everyone will get the latest information possible.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Disco...Luis, you folks in the Caribbean may want to take a peek...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
120 PM EST MON DEC 21 2009

VALID 12Z THU DEC 24 2009 - 12Z MON DEC 28 2009

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER IN THE LOWER 50S
LATITUDE IN WESTERN CANADA FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE TO
ITS SOUTH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AMPLIFIED RIDGING IN WESTERN
CANADA ALSO FAVORS TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND A STORM
TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
PRECIPITATION PREFERRED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MODELS /OUTSIDE THE 06Z
GEFS MEAN WITH THE STORM TRACK/ GENERALLY AGREE ON THESE
IDEAS...THOUGH THE GUIDANCE MOST AGREEABLE TO THIS CONCEPTUAL
MODEL ARE THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...PARTICULARLY WITH
THE LOW TRACK IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
ALLOWED US TO LOWER PRESSURES MORE FOR THE SYSTEM APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER FURTHER CONSULTING THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH ITS LOW
TRACK IN THE MIDWEST. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BROKEN CONTINUITY WITH
A CLOSED LOW WHICH SOMEHOW SEPARATES FROM ITS PARENT CENTER IN
NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND DIVES IT SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD...IT HAS SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST
POSITION-WISE. DEPTH-WISE...THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ISSUES IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE DEEP CYCLONE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGING
IN WESTERN CANADA...SHOWING STRONGER SOLUTIONS ON ITS 12Z RUNS
THAN ITS 00Z RUNS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE 06Z GFS/06Z GEFS
MEAN WERE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
BECAUSE ANY POSSIBLE KICKER TO THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 1500 NM
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SLOWER
SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE MANUAL PROGS STARTED WITH A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z ECMWF...BEFORE REFINEMENTS WERE MADE TO
KEEP PRESSURES/WINDS REALISTIC AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
SPREAD BOTH IN POSITION AND DEPTH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A NEW
LOOK AT THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LED TO THE ADDITION
OF A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS A
REASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
PREFERENCE LEADS TO GREATER WARMING ACROSS MONTANA THAN SHOWN IN
THE 00Z GFS-BASED MOS...YET MAINTAINS REASONABLE CONTINUITY.

ROTH

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro run is done and it shows nothing of the kind for Texas like the nutty 12z CMC run. Dry and cold for Christmas and beyond. Another storm system treks through the state about mid week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Stormcenter]

Hey maybe that's actually a good sign this far out.

The 12z Euro run is done and it shows nothing of the kind for Texas like the nutty 12z CMC run. Dry and cold for Christmas and beyond. Another storm system treks through the state about mid week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[cycloneye]

HPC Final Extended Disco...Luis, you folks in the Caribbean may want to take a peek...

Yup Steve.I haved been posting at our Caribbean thread at Talking Tropics what the San Juan NWS is saying about it.It looks like a somewhat rainy long Christmas weekend for the NE Caribbean.Hey Steve,you may want to go on a vacation to the Caribbean to avoid the

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Disco...Luis, you folks in the Caribbean may want to take a peek...

Yup Steve.I haved been posting at our Caribbean thread at Talking Tropics what the San Juan NWS is saying about it.It looks like a somewhat rainy long Christmas weekend for the NE Caribbean.Hey Steve,you may want to go on a vacation to the Caribbean to avoid the

Our old neighbors from our time in the Lower Keys have been bragging lately about the great weather and being able to spend a lot of time lobstering. Some of you may wonder about the pic in my sig. I took that from my boat in 2003 off the Lower Keys. I often enejoyed a short boat ride to watch the wonderful sunsets. Some day I'll post some of the others I have. I may have to make a trip back down soon. I'll probably get real tired of the mess here. The older I get, the harder the cold weather and winds get to me. Sorry for going off Topic. Back to TX Winter Weather.

[rhoby13]

From the lack of posts the last few days I don't even have to scroll through to understand that nothing is forecasted for Texas

[lrak]

The National Weather Service Office in Brownsville began talking about the potential for freezing temperatures and a winter mix of precipitation as early as Monday December 20, nearly 5 days in advance of the storm. Forecast Discussions, Hazardous Weather Outlooks, and Special Weather Statements were consistently mentioning the potential for a winter blast in Deep South Texas by Christmas Eve.


As the event began to unfold, the meteorologists at NWS Brownsville refined the precipitation forecast to account for rainfall changing to sleet or a rain/snow mix, and eventually changing to all snow for the overnight hours between December 24th and 25th. The first in a series of winter weather warnings and advisories - Freeze Warnings - were issued by the National Weather Service at 230 AM December 23rd. Around noon on Christmas Eve, the Freeze Warnings were upgraded to Winter Weather Advisories, which were subsequently upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings later that evening for Heavy Snow, continuing until the morning of December 25th when the snowfall finally ended.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2004even ... tmasreport

It can still happen! They had to wait 2 days before mentioning the white stuff. Probabley won't happen on Christmas for most of us, but maybe New Years we'll have better luck.

[msstateguy83]

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG IT IS MY FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM TO EFFECT OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NW TX LATE WEDNESDAY - CHRISTMAS EVE.. FOR THE VERY LATEST LISTEN TO LOCAL TV,RADIO OR A NOAA WEATHER RADIO

THIS IS MY GRAPHIC JUST PUT TOGETHER FOR THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM,
I THINK ITS NOT OVER DOING IT, BY THE END PORTIONS OF OK, FAR NW TX COULD SEE NEARLY 10 INCHES
TO LOCALLY A FOOT OF SNOW! IAM STILL GOING FOR EVEN THOUGH ITS NOT THE POPULAR THING TO SAY
A TRACE TO 1 INCH ON THE WEST, NW SIDES OF DALLAS-FORTWORTH WITH RAIN FROM DALLAS AND POINTS EASTWARD.

THIS WILL BE UPDATED AS WE GO ALONG, COULD CHANGE UP TO 50-100 MILES DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW BUT FOR THE TIME BEING I THINK THIS IS HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS LATE WED INTO
EARLY CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING..

[gofrogs]

And youre basing that of off what no model even shows snow for tx for that time frame.

[msstateguy83]

models show snow for nw tx... iam saying it will be abit further e,s then the models are saying and put a dusting to 1inch for dfw area.... but there will be snow in nw tx.. it might be FAR NW TX... but there will be snow.. take it to the bank...


edit 1: you cant tell me, not trying to be rude with the track of the upper level low, location there wont be any snow in
TEXAS?? texas is large.. iam taking about the most being in an area near the redriver close to w.falls, west and into sw ok..
then also as i said some wrap around down near dfw mainly on the north,west side of dfw...

[Big O]

I think the system after the New Year has some potential. Both the European and GFS are showing an upper level low out to our West, with cold air in place (albeit with some timing differences):

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/4431 ... 32hpan.gif

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/8403/gfs500240l.gif


Then take a look at the longer range GFS, and it shows a major snowstorm affecting virtually all parts of Texas at one time or another and originating from this same system:

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/6324/gfspcp252l.gif

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/1165/gfspcp264l.gif

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/1483/gfspcp276l.gif

I know this is past 180 hours, but it appears that both the European and GFS are seeing a significant west coast low moving west to east at a low latitude and across Texas. In addition, JB hinted that there might be snow in Texas again during this time period.

[TexasStorm]

models show snow for nw tx... iam saying it will be abit further e,s then the models are saying and put a dusting to 1inch for dfw area.... but there will be snow in nw tx.. it might be FAR NW TX... but there will be snow.. take it to the bank...


edit 1: you cant tell me, not trying to be rude with the track of the upper level low, location there wont be any snow in
TEXAS?? texas is large.. iam taking about the most being in an area near the redriver close to w.falls, west and into sw ok..
then also as i said some wrap around down near dfw mainly on the north,west side of dfw...

[gofrogs]

what gfs run was that you posted that shows that it wasnt the one from last night was it.