SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DAVID (05S)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 621
WTIO30 FMEE 220023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3S / 64.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 120 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/22 12 UTC: 12.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/23 00 UTC: 12.6S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/23 12 UTC: 13.5S/67.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/24 00 UTC: 14.2S/68.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/24 12 UTC: 14.7S/68.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/25 00 UTC: 15.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
THE POSTION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AMSU/2121Z FIX.
SYSTEM'S ASPECT HAS IMPROVED ON THE ANIMATED IMAGERY, WITH A
WESTERLY
WINDSHEAR WHICH SEEMS TO SLIGHTLY LESSEN (BETTER EXPANSION TOWARDS
THE
WEST ON THE ANIMATED VAPOUR WATER IMAGERY).
LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED, POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
WELL, BUT THE SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR -EVEN
SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED. THIS CURRENT WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY LESSEN ON THURSDAY. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN
OVER
THE NEXT CO
MING DAYS AND BE THE UNFAVORABLE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS
THEREFORE FORECASTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED.
NWP DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED OF THE MOTION BUT SUGGEST THE STEERING
FLOW
SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL EQUATORWARDS RIDGE LOCATED
TO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AT RANGE 60 TO 72H, DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEDGED BETWEEN
TWO
COMPETING STEERING
FLOWS, AND ITS MOTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE DISPERSION AMONG NWP MODEL ABOUT THE
DURATION
OF THIS SOUTHEASTERN MOTION.
THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
NWP.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 11.9S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.5S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.3S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.2S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.2S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.9S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 65.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 05S HAS NOT SEEN A LARGE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAUSING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO BE
SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
220308Z SSMIS PASS THAT ALSO INDICATED THE LLCC WAS SLIGHTLY DIS-
LOCATED FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND
IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY A 3.0 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. THIS FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BASED ON A MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST AS WELL, HOWEVER THIS FORECAST REMAINS
TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
TC DAVID IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS AND MARGINAL
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

22/0830 UTC 11.7S 65.1E T3.5/3.5 DAVID -- Southwest Indian

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

22/1430 UTC 13.0S 66.2E T4.0/4.0 DAVID -- Southwest Indian

65 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 121
WTIO20 FMEE 221823
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/12/2009
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 22/12/2009 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 66.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE
CENTER
.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100
NM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
13.8S / 68.1E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
14.5S / 68.9E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TRACK SEEMS TO BE ON A
MORE
SOUTHEASTWARDS COMPONENT.
DAVID SHOULD KEEP ON THIS GENERAL MOTION UNTIL RANGE 36H. BEYOND, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.
NEAR GALE AND GALE RADII HAS BEEN CALIBRATED ACCORDING BUOY 14043
DATA.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 DEC 2009 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:34:19 S Lon : 65:55:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 979.5mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.5mb

Center Temp : -75.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.1S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.7S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.3S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.7S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.1S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 67.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
221409Z 37H TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND A
WEAK MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TCB EVIDENT IN IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS
RELOCATED 80 NM EAST BASED ON THE HIGH CONFIDENCE TRMM IMAGE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, ACCELERATE
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORECAST HOWEVER, THERE
ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND
TRACK SPEEDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS
COMPRISED OF GFS, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS, ECMWF, EGRR, GFDN AND WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looks like an eye is forming

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 782
WTIO20 FMEE 230026
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/12/2009
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/12/2009 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 67.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 TO 15 NM RADIUS
FROM
THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100
NM
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
13.9S / 68.9E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
14.4S / 69.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND.
DAVID SHOULD KEEP ON ITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. BEYOND,
THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS.
NEAR GALE AND GALE RADII HAS BEEN CALIBRATED ACCORDING BUOY 14043
DATA.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 DEC 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:39:41 S Lon : 67:42:26 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.2mb/ 72.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Center Temp : -79.1C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 971
WTIO30 FMEE 230046 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/7/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 67.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 32 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 170 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/23 12 UTC: 13.9S/68.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/12/24 00 UTC: 14.4S/69.6E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/12/24 12 UTC: 15.0S/70.1E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/12/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/70.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/25 12 UTC: 16.1S/69.8E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/26 00 UTC: 16.8S/69.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
MW IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DESPITE SOME
NORTHERLY
SHEAR (TILT BETWEEN 85 GHZ -MID-LEVEL- AND 37 GHZ -LOW LEVEL)
CURRENT WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.
DAVID KEEPS ON A GENERAL EASTSOUTHASTWARDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK.
ITS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AT 500
HPA
LOCATED TO ITS NORTHNORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
WESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
DECREASED THURSDAY. A
NEW RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILT EAST OF DAVID AND STEERING FLOW
SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH / NORTHNORTHEAST. IF ALL AVAILABLE NWP
PRODUCTS
AGREE WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEY STRONGLY DISAGREE ON THE
LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN ... TWO KIND OF TRACKS APPEAR: US MODELS
(CONW,NOGAPS,GFS) TH
AT TURN SHARPLY DAVID WEST OF 70E ... AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS (ECMWF,
UKMO, ALADIN-REUNION) THAT TURN DAVID EAST OF 70E ... AT THE MOMENT
OF
THE TURN, THERE IS A 5 DEGREES DISPERSION AMONG THE WHOLE TRACKS.
THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
NWP,
TURN DAVID AROUND 70E ... AND CONTAINS A LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE.
SYSTEM HAS AROUND A 24 HRS WINDOWS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH
RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS
IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETLY EXCLUDED ...
THURSDAY, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK.
ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE
AGREE FOR A WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD START THURDAY EVENING.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 296
WTIO30 FMEE 231218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/7/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/23 AT 1200 UTC :
13.5S / 68.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 32 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: SE: 020 SO: 020 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/24 00 UTC: 13.7S/69.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/24 12 UTC: 13.9S/96.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/25 00 UTC: 14.5S/69.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/12/25 12 UTC: 15.2S/69.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/26 00 UTC: 15.6S/69.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/12/26 12 UTC: 16.0S/68.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.5
MW IMAGERY SHOW AN LESS DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A ALWAYS
PRESENT NORTHERLY SHEAR (CIRRUS ARCUS NORTH TO THE SYSTEM)
WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REAMINS WEAK TO MODERATE OVER THE SYSTEM,
THEN
INCREASE UP TO TAU24.
DAVID KEEPS ON A GENERAL EASTSOUTHASTWARDSTRACK, SLOWNING DOWN. ITS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AT 500
HPA
LOCATED TO ITS NORTHNORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
WESTWARDS SO ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DECREASED, IN THE
SAME
TIME, A NEW LOW LOCATED
EAST TO THE SYSTEME SEEMS TO DELAY THE EFFECT OF A NEW RIDGE
FORECASTED
TO BUILT EAST OF DAVID AND ITS STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH /
NORTHNORTHEAST.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.6S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.4S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.5S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 68.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TC 05S. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW HAVE REMAINS STEADY AT 3.5 (55 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
230356Z SSMIS PASS INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE 12 HOURS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 05S. THIS TROUGH IS CREATING A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION OVER TC
05S, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH IS IMPACTING
OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT REMAINS FAVORABLE ALLOWING TC 05S TO PERSIST AT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE MARGINAL NOW, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO UNFAVORABLE VALUES BY TAU 36. TC 05S IS
TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 TC 05S
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 05S TO START TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF TC 05S,
WITH GFDN, NGPS, AND UKMO SHOWING AN ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. GFS, WBAR, AND ECMF SHOW A MORE GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND WBAR SOLUTION. INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW ALLOWS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OHC/SST VALUES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 309
WTIO30 FMEE 231834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/7/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 68.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/24 06 UTC: 14.1S/69.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/24 18 UTC: 13.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/25 06 UTC: 14.2S/69.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/25 18 UTC: 14.8S/69.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/26 06 UTC: 15.3S/69.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/12/26 18 UTC: 16.2S/68.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- CI=3.0+
SYSTEM CENTER RE-LOCATED AT 12Z AT 14.0S/68.5E.
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT CIMSS DATA AT 15Z CONFIRM THE NORTHERLY
UPPER
LEVEL WINDSHEAR MATERIALIZED BY A CIRRUS ARCUS NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION.
WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE SYSTEM, THEN
INCREASE
UP TO TAU36.
DAVID KEEPS ON A GENERAL SOUTHASTWARDSTRACK, SLOWNING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT SHOULD TRACK TEMPORARILY NORTH-EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ITS STEERING FLOW REMAINS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AT
500
HPA LOCATED TO ITS NORTHNORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
WESTWARDS SO ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DECREASED, IN THE
SAME
TIME, A NEW LOW LOCATED EAST TO THE SYSTEME SEEMS TO DELAY THE EFFECT
OF
A NEW RIDGE FO
RECASTED TO BUILT EAST OF DAVID AND ITS STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH
/
NORTHNORTHEAST.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST AVALAIBLE NWP
MODELS
WHICH ARE RATHER DISPERSED.=
NNNN