Wintertime Caribbean Low

[xironman]

So I am checking out the GFS for tropical moisture that could juice up our Nor'Easters up here and I noticed this low off the south coast of Cuba, is there any sort of a chance of some sub-tropical stuff?

[Macrocane]

The CPC said in its weekly outlook that a tropical disturbance will bring above average rainfall in some parts of the Caribbean, I think that tropical or sub-tropical development can't be completely ruled out although in my unofficial and amateur opinion I think that the chances for development are very low. Just remember that a lot of people said that a hurricane in the Caribbean was almost impossible in november in an El Niño year but we had Ida, so again it cannot be ruled out.

Week 1 outlook

[cycloneye]

I agree with Macrocane about not to rule out any development but I see it small.If I can give a percent I say 2% chance.

[HURAKAN]

Right now the shear reminds us we're in 2009!

[xironman]

Lot's of convection, but the upper level winds a screaming. Jamaica has been getting tons of rain. Looks like Haiti is next

[Frank2]

An unusual weather feature for this time of year, killing 3 in Jamacia and possibly being the cause of the American Airlines accident last evening:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,580942,00.html

P.S. This can't be compared to "wrong-way Jerry" but the current low/disturbance does have a lot of vigor (a/k/a convection), that's for sure...

[tailgater]

No development but plenty of LL convergence.

[Macrocane]

P.S. This can't be compared to "wrong-way Jerry" but the current low/disturbance does have a lot of vigor (a/k/a convection), that's for sure...

You meant 1999 wrong-way Lenny

[Frank2]

LOL - serves me right for being sarcastic...

If this were one month ago (before the end of the hurricane season), it'd been classified as a depression, most likely...