Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[BlueIce]

THIS IS MY FORECASTED SNOWFALL FOR THE UPCOMING MAJOR WINTER STORM FORECAST TO HIT OK AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TX LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE THIS IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG.. FOR THE VERY LATEST CHECK YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO OR A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...


KEEP IN MIND THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, IF IT ARRIVES SOONER THEN FORECAST OR LATER, SO YOU COULD SEE A SHIFT OF THESE AMOUNTS
IN ANY DIRECTION BY I WOULD SAY 50-100 MILES. NOT LIKELY BUT ITS POSSIBLE.

That would be pretty awesome if it verified

Local Weather guy just called 10" in metro?! Any thoughts?

[Ntxw]

I do not see anything on the models that would validate this, things can change. A few inches I can see happening with locally 10" possibly, again very iffy, in far northern Oklahoma. Timing and track of the low is key.

[BlueIce]

Mike Morgan just pushed all in lol, he just called biggest storm since 2000, now its not going to even snow.

[Ntxw]

Tonight's 12z does throw back more moisture, not totally out of the realms of possibilities. Will it happen? I wouldn't bet too much on it.

[BlueIce]

Tonight's 12z does throw back more moisture, not totally out of the realms of possibilities. Will it happen? I wouldn't bet too much on it.

The NAM was showing it but, GFS was saying all Kansas.. sigh

[Ntxw]

Tonight's 12z does throw back more moisture, not totally out of the realms of possibilities. Will it happen? I wouldn't bet too much on it.

The NAM was showing it but, GFS was saying all Kansas.. sigh

Again, timing and track is very important. The sooner the changeover happens, the more likely it is to accumulate. Next week looks more promising.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATING GRIDS TO EXPAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND DOWN TOWARDS THE ARBUCKLES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.
LATEST GFS COMING IN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AS WAS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM. STILL
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON AMOUNTS AS DRY SLOT WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL
TEMPORARILY MOVE OUT MOISTURE. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

The 00Z GGEM will raise some eyebrows.

[Ntxw]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATING GRIDS TO EXPAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND DOWN TOWARDS THE ARBUCKLES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.
LATEST GFS COMING IN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AS WAS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LATEST NAM. STILL
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON AMOUNTS AS DRY SLOT WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL
TEMPORARILY MOVE OUT MOISTURE. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

The 00Z GGEM will raise some eyebrows.

Could you explain the GGEM?

[srainhoutx]

GGEM is the Canadian Ensembles. Surface low via the GGEM is suggesting a track to near Memphis. That guidance also continues to suggets a Coastal Trough along the TX Coastal areas with 850mb temps right on the Coast during the 26th -28th time frame. Will need to watch for a suppressed storm track in future runs, but there have been some hints this may occur. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

Sounds like this system is going to be giving us headaches down to the very last hour

[srainhoutx]

If the 00Z GFS is correct, here are the totals for OK...

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=TLX

Tulsa Updates as well...

REGARDING THE WINTER WX POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...THE 18Z GFS/NAM
AND 00Z NAM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TX INTO
ARKANSAS BEFORE TAKING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST
AR. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 412...THOUGH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH THE AMOUNT
AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED BY LATER FORECASTS.

[wx247]

Winter Storm Watches across Oklahoma, Eastern Kansas, and Western Missouri now. This is getting interesting! Time to wait for the 12z model runs.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Upper Low diving S out of Alberta, Canada today. A lot of focus has been given to the Southern Upper Low, but that feature will 'stir the pot' for this Major Winter Storm.

[wx247]

12z NAM takes the track of the low a little more SE than the 00z and the 06z. Hmm...

[BlueIce]

Another local station calling 10" or more in the metro.
http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com/2009/12/23/update-1100am/
"The model that we have been paying close attention to this morning is showing an even heavier amount of snow than previously, although some feel that this particular model may have slightly overdone the snow amounts as it wants to bring in as much as 18 inches to various parts of The Northern Metro. Nonetheless, it’s also hard to ignore this model which predicted this event 2.5 weeks ago."

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, I am really mad that I am missing this now. One to three inches of snow while I was away wouldn't bother me so much, but TEN INCHES!?! Missing an amount like that would be very depressing..

[srainhoutx]

Webcast Briefing Update from NWS Tulsa...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/tsa/briefing/player.html

[BlueIce]

Msstate, what are you seeing for the Oklahoma storm? Any updates to your total map that was posted a couple of posts ago?

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS BETTER
PARAMETERS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WHILE OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED...THERE STILL REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS EVENING...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR AN ATOKA TO MIAMI LINE AT 930 PM. THE FRONT IS MOVING
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE UPDATED HOURLY
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FASTER TIMING OF FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WINTER WX POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW. 00Z
NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM...AND TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO ARKANSAS BEFORE TURNING
NORTH. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST THEN WE CURRENTLY HAVE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
PROFILER DATA INDICATE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED A LITTLE MORE
NORTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR THE POTENTIALLY MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOWFALL TOTALS/LOCATION.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS just updated their snowfall map...4-8" is now expected across much of central and south Oklahoma:



I hope everyone in the region for the holidays enjoys their rare white Christmas! Missing this event will be hard for me to get over, but hopefully you guys will all post some good pictures! I look forward to seeing them!