Christmas week tornado outbreak? MDT risk Dec. 24

[CrazyC83]

The SPC has mentioned it for a few days, but the models seem to think the threat could cover a much larger area - the warm sector should reach into the Ohio Valley and maybe even the Great Lakes?

[wgdade]

http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/s ... esday.html

Looking like a prettty good threat of low topped supercells Wed that could produce hail and tornadoes. Above is my latest blog write up. Looks real busy across East Texas Wednesday afternoon and night. Remember to check out kltv.com for streaming weather updates during severe weather.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
456 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

TXC203-232315-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0096.000000T0000Z-091223T2315Z/
HARRISON TX-
456 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR HARRISON
COUNTY...

AT 454 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLETON...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LONGVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NESBITT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 9469 3278 9468 3259 9433 3249 9451
3259 9470 3264 9470 3274 9471 3276 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 211DEG 15KT 3258 9464

$$

PARKER

[CrazyC83]

2247 5 E LONGVIEW HARRISON TX 3252 9467 NEAR LOOP 281 AND US 80. TRACTOR TRAILORS REPORTLY OVERTURNED. DAMAGE TO TRINITY INDUSTRY. (SHV)

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...

VALID 232321Z - 240115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 805 CONTINUES.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.

SEASONABLY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS E TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH CONVECTION SLOWLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A FEW
STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS ARE INDICATED BY LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM -- NOW MOVING NNEWD OUT OF WRN
HARRISON AND INTO WRN MARION CO. TX -- RECENTLY PRODUCING A TORNADO.


WITH FAVORABLY VEERING/SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT...THREAT FOR A FEW
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE. ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL
POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
REMAIN LIKELY.

..GOSS.. 12/23/2009


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31049644 31949646 33979504 33409362 31649331 30399371
30439602 31049644

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
523 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

TXC203-315-232345-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-091223T2345Z/
MARION TX-HARRISON TX-
523 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR HARRISON
AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 522 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF LASSATER...OR 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JEFFERSON...BEREA AND LODI

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 9445 3270 9462 3287 9463 3288 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 206DEG 29KT 3271 9456

$$

PARKER

[CrazyC83]

Moderate risk at 0100Z? This could last right into the night...

[Texas Snowman]

http://www.kltv.com/global/story.asp?s=11723140

Pics of the Longview tornado...

[CrazyC83]

Damage looks to be quite significant, possible at least EF2. Hopefully no injuries...

[Texas Snowman]

Local TV met rated it at EF0 or EF1.

But he also said that he estimated it at one point - from photos he had seen - to have been a 1/2 mile wide at one point.

[brunota2003]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 638 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 15 MILES SOUTH OF
MAUD...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
REDWATER...

[CrazyC83]

Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 240045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/LA...NWD INTO ERN
OK/WRN AR...

...CNTRL/ERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR/LA...

INCREASINGLY DEFINED UPPER LOW IS DIGGING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 20KT
ACROSS NM TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. LEADING EDGE OF SHARP MID
LEVEL ASCENT/WARM CONVEYOR IS APPROACHING THE WRN EDGE OF MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO AN EXPANSION IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. 00Z SOUNDING FROM FWD IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE
WITH ROUGHLY 500 J/KG MUCAPE...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP.
FARTHER EAST...SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS DRIVING THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PERSIST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IT
APPEARS ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION...OR NEAR-SFC BASED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IT
WOULD SEEM THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH STRONG
FORCING MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS
MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS THE SQUALL LINE MATURES.

..DARROW.. 12/24/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0103Z (8:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Surprisingly, the 10% tornado was dropped...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
918 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WAKE VILLAGE...TEXARKANA...
NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ATLANTA...
WESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...STAMPS...LEWISVILLE...
MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TEXARKANA...
SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CST

* AT 916 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF GARLAND TO GARLAND TO RAVANNA...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOPE TO 9 MILES WEST OF
LEWISVILLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BRIGHTSTAR...DODDRIDGE...TAYLOR...CANFIELD...BUSSEY...BUCKNER...
BRADLEY AND BODCAW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST

* AT 925 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LODI...OR
17 MILES WEST OF VIVIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SMITHLAND...KILDARE...MCLEOD...BIVINS AND RAVANNA...

[Dave]

DEC 23 220600 EST
FLASH FLOOD
ATLANTA
CASS
TX
BROADCAST MEDIA
FLOODING ON MAIN ST CAUSING CARS TO BE WASHED ON SIDEWALKS

[Dave]

MILLER AR-CADDO LA-CASS TX-MARION TX-
937 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CST FOR
MARION...CASS AND MILLER COUNTIES...AND CADDO PARISH...

AT 936 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KILDARE...OR 14 MILES
WEST OF VIVIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MCLEOD...BIVINS...MYRTIS...RODESSA...CAPPS
CITY...BLOOMBURG...MISSIONARY...IDA AND RAVANNA.

[Dave]

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 806...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

CORRECTED FOR CST

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WESTERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST OF ANGLETON TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 805. WATCH NUMBER 805 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
905 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD INTO CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SSELY LLJ FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER ERN TX/WRN LA. BROKEN BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE
VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGER
SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER SYSTEM...MAINTAINING A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH DAYBREAK OVER PARTS OF WW.

[Dave]

NEVADA AR-HEMPSTEAD AR-COLUMBIA AR-LAFAYETTE AR-MILLER AR-BOWIE TX-
CASS TX-
943 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR CASS...BOWIE...MILLER...LAFAYETTE...COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD AND
NEVADA COUNTIES...

AT 942 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PATMOS TO PINEY GROVE TO FORT
LYNN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOPE TO
LEWISVILLE TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TAYLOR...SUTTON...STAMPS...SPIRIT LAKE...SMITHLAND...MOUNT VERNON...
MOUNT PLEASANT...MOUNT MORIAH...MCKAMIE...MARS HILL...LERCH...
LANEBURG...FALCON...CORNELIUS...CANFIELD...BUSSEY...BUCKNER...
BRADLEY...BODCAW AND BETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.

[Dave]

MILLER AR-CADDO LA-CASS TX-
947 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CST FOR CASS AND
MILLER COUNTIES...AND CADDO PARISH...

AT 946 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR BIVINS...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MCLEOD...MYRTIS...RODESSA...CAPPS CITY...RAVANNA...IDA...BLOOMBURG
AND MISSIONARY.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the Updates David. Going to be a looong night...