Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[swaha2]

msstateguy83,

I have enjoyed reading your analysis of this storm. What do you project for ne texas tomorrow for winter weather?

[Ntxw]

Does it seem as if the low continues to move south?

[Kelarie]

Looks like I moved to Plano just in time for the roller coaster of Winter Weather 2009/2010....Weeeeeee. Although I will miss be party with Portastorm and the other Austin folk as we kept having Lucy yank that "football" away from us time after time. It looks like this year might be a wee bit different for all of us.

[HockeyTx82]

Does it seem as if the low continues to move south?

If it does what would that mean for us? All the snow go south or possible to get more?

[Ntxw]

Does it seem as if the low continues to move south?

If it does what would that mean for us? All the snow go south or possible to get more?

It would mean more

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Tomorrow should be interesting to say the least!

[srainhoutx]

RGEM suggests the low will track near Monroe, LA in 24 hours. Canadian models may have scored a coup with the southern track.

[Ntxw]

RGEM suggests the low will track near Monroe, LA in 24 hours. Canadian models may have scored a coup with the southern track.

That's what I was thinking Srain. Also by looking at the 500mb lv pattern, it would support this. I wouldn't be surprised to see the band of heaviest snow shift down to the I-20 corridor. Which is why earlier I stated that my thinking is the winter storm warnings *might* expand a bit south and east.

[Ntxw]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL BE
THROUGH WACO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED WACO
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT.

AREA OF PRECIP IS APPROACHING THE METRO TAFS FROM THE WEST AND
WILL START THE TAFS PREVAILING WITH RAIN. OCCASIONAL STROKES OF
LIGHTNING ARE EMBEDDED IN THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP AND WILL
TEMPO TSRA THROUGH 9Z. CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP AND EXPECT THEM TO
BE AROUND 1-2KFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW AS STRONG WINDS ON
THE SURFACE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SNOW FOR THE METROPLEX BEGINNING AT 15Z
THURSDAY. SNOW WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

WIND SPEEDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 27 KNOTS WITH
GUST UP TO 40 KNOTS. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE NW
COMPONENT THAN WNW AND THAT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE CROSSWIND
PROBLEMS...BUT GIVEN THE SNOWFALL...VISIBILITIES MAY BE GREATLY
REDUCED.

[msstateguy83]

outside my place in the falls about 30 mins ago its gotta much worse now =) snow is blowing like crazy

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK / TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / WRN N TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 240543Z - 241145Z

P-TYPE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS
THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN THE 06-09Z PERIOD AND THEN SPREAD EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR I-44 TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED
GENERALLY IN W-E CORRIDOR ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK WITHIN A PART
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 09Z. A SHORT DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR AND E OF I-44 FROM 09-12Z
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY SNOW THEREAFTER.

VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM PER EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD TOP
COOLING EVIDENT IN GOES IR IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING HOURS IMPLIES
THAT STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SWEEPING EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONVERGING TOWARDS A H7 LOW TRACK FROM
NEAR LBB TO W OF MWL FROM 06-12Z...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARDS
A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT LIKELY BEGINNING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXOMA. MODEL QPF /NAM-ETAKF-GFS-SREF MEDIAN/ IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD
SHOW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.10-0.50 INCH ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXIMIZED INVOF THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WITH A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. THIS MAY IN TURN FAVOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BURSTS AS THE P-TYPE TRANSITION OCCURS.

..SMITH.. 12/24/2009

[srainhoutx]

Flurries possible in College Station...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kcll.txt

[Ntxw]

The more I look at this (both models, maps, and satellite\vapor) the more I believe the I-20 corridor will get absolutely nailed. The low just continues to track East\Southeast. Even places a bit further south might get some action at this rate.

[HockeyTx82]

The more I look at this (both models, maps, and satellite\vapor) the more I believe the I-20 corridor will get absolutely nailed. The low just continues to track East\Southeast. Even places a bit further south might get some action at this rate.

What about our area?

[Ntxw]

The more I look at this (both models, maps, and satellite\vapor) the more I believe the I-20 corridor will get absolutely nailed. The low just continues to track East\Southeast. Even places a bit further south might get some action at this rate.

What about our area?

To me, all of the metroplex is considered I-20 corridor.

[HockeyTx82]

The more I look at this (both models, maps, and satellite\vapor) the more I believe the I-20 corridor will get absolutely nailed. The low just continues to track East\Southeast. Even places a bit further south might get some action at this rate.

What about our area?

To me, all of the metroplex is considered I-20 corridor.

Ahh ok, makes sense. I live about 1 mile from UNT. I can see the clock tower from my balcony.

[Ntxw]

I know it's tough to predict snow and such in Texas, but this looks to be as promising as I have ever seen it (Sorry i wasn't around back in the 70s for those ). Strange thing is the CMC and upper flow maps have given big hints about a day or so ago. Still nothing is in stone until the snow actually falls, but this has the *potential* to be one for keeps here in North Texas.

[somethingfunny]

It's really funny how the models showed this two weeks ago, but then they lost it and the NWS never bit until earlier today.

Let it snow let it snow let it snow!

(please)

[Ntxw]

And what timing, I don't think any of us should ask for more after this possible white christmas. (yet models do show more possible in the coming weeks) lol

[srainhoutx]

Well good luck folks. This is just the beginning of a very active period. 1972-73 analogs fit nicely with this pattern. This member would love to see a repeat of January/February 73 again. It's been a looong time for our part of the world.