Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs]

Still waiting for the first flakes here in fort wroth i live by the tcu campus.

[lrak]

Remember the PICS, and what an awesome present for you guys up north! Enjoy and be safe!

lrak AKA karl

[Ntxw]

I know it's quite early, but I'm still wondering why no blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of N Texas especially along the red river counties. With the kind of wind that will be blowing and the slow movement of the storm, doesn't it seem like the criteria fits?

[gofrogs]

yeah, i think that they htink that they would just wreak havoc on everybdoy, when weas the last time that parts for north texas was under a blizzard warning.

[gofrogs]

Dude friggin waco could see snow out of this. The radar is starting to fill in nicely overn orth texas so well see whats going to happen.

[Portastorm]

The only thing holding back the Wichita Falls and msstateguy83's area for a Blizzard Warning would be the winds. Per NWS, there are two criteria that must be met:

1) Winds sustained or frequently gusting more than 35 mph for 3 consecutive hours or more
2) Falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibilities below a 1/4 mile for 3 consecutive hours or more

Shepherd AFB is reporting north winds 20-30 ... just below the criteria. Otherwise, they would be meeting the criteria.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

I talked to family in Springtown, it is snowing there now.

[Portastorm]

I talked to family in Springtown, it is snowing there now.

For those of you who don't know, Springtown is about 20 miles west-northwest of the Fort Worth metro area

[Portastorm]

Based on what I'm seeing through these TxDOT cams in Wichita Falls, it looks like near "white out" conditions are occurring there. Hey msstateguy83 ... post some pics dude!

http://wfsits.dot.state.tx.us/WFS-zoom/default.htm

[iorange55]

Based on what I'm seeing through these TxDOT cams in Wichita Falls, it looks like near "white out" conditions are occurring there. Hey msstateguy83 ... post some pics dude!

http://wfsits.dot.state.tx.us/WFS-zoom/default.htm

I'll take half of that for just one minute even in Dallas, anything. Like i said yesterday I'm not picky mother nature.

[Ntxw]

He's probably busy building a snowman

[CaptinCrunch]

Sleet and snow mix here at work DT FTW

[gofrogs]

Yeah iam watching that snow line creep east ever so slowlly bujt its changing rapidly on the radar, springtown is fairly close i played them in bball like two weeks ago. we have not heard much frm the nws in fort worth i wonder what the deal is its been like six hours.

[iorange55]

Sleet and snow mix here at work DT FTW

WOO CAPTIN! It won't be long here then maybe 30-45 minutes I'm guessing.

[CaptinCrunch]

Forecast stiil on track for 3 to 5 inches of snow from Denten to the north and Parker to the west. 2 to 3 inches across DFW metro area, 1 inch to the south

Sometimes on the east side, we tend to get gipped with the forecasted amounts. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with this due to history. In fact, I'm not expecting any snow until I see it falling.

Well with it already snowing here in FTW about 3 hrs ahead of said time frame, I wont be surprise to see more than the 2-3 inches that was forecasted.

[Texas Snowman]

Just as a reminder, snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas is exceedingly rare anywhere in Texas (unless you live in Corpus, Victoria, or El Campo, that is! ).

From FW NWS:

1975 - Mostly heavy rain fell across North Texas on Christmas Eve though some snow mixed with the rain. Flurries were reported at DFW Airport. More significant snow fell before daybreak Christmas Day. Much of the snow melted as it fell, with a maximum accumulation of 0.4 inches at DFW Airport.

1926 - A prolonged snow event began on December 23 when 4-6 inches of snow fell from Brownwood to Comanche. On Christmas Day, 6 inches of snow fell across Dallas and Collin County. The official climate site at Fort Worth recorded 2 inches of snow, but the Weather Bureau office in Dallas measured 6.4 inches December 24-25, 6.3 inches of which fell on Christmas Day. Much of the snow was gone by the afternoon of Christmas Day.

1887 - A severe ice storm occurred on December 23, resulting in numerous downed trees and telegraph lines. Heavy snow followed on Christmas Eve, with as much as 9 inches falling in Palestine.

And my personal favorite...

1841 - In the earliest record of a White Christmas in North Texas, soldiers were tracking a bear in 6 inches of snow in what is now Dallas.

Now, will 2009 be added to this list?!?

[msstateguy83]

snow outside my place 30 mins ago its gotten much worse now.. .more pics to come..

[iorange55]

snow outside my place 30 mins ago its gotten much worse now.. .more pics to come..

Wow thats pretty incredible since it just started!

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update...

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
428 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009

VALID 12Z THU DEC 24 2009 - 12Z SUN DEC 27 2009

...PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS SET TO UNFOLD...IMPACTING A GOOD PORTION
OF THE PLAINS...MID/UPR MS VLY AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGIONS
WITH A COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE VORTEX THAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR
THE MID MS VLY THRU SAT. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE...THERE ARE UNFORTUNATELY NUMEROUS AND
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER DETAILS WHICH IMPACT THE
QPF/SNOW FORECASTS.

DAY 1 DIFFERENCES MOSTLY CONCERN CTRL/ERN OK...NRN TX...ERN KS
INTO NWRN AR AND SWRN MO... WHERE A STRIPE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND
POSSIBLE SLEET/ICE MAY OCCUR. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE/VORT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RAPID
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SRN
STREAM SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO ASSUME A
NEG TILT... THERE IS NO CONCERN THAT THE THERMAL COLUMN WILL
CONVERT RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW WITH THE ENHANCED VERTICAL
VELOCITIES. HOWEVER... FIGURING OUT THE CORRECT AXIS IS AN ISSUE
WITH THE WAVERING OF THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z NAM HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS AND THIS WOULD SHIFT THE HVY SNOW AXIS
FROM SPS TO TUL INCLUDING THE OZARKS IN NWRN AR. MEANWHILE TO THE
NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... GENERAL LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL WITH SOME
ICING. BY THE VERY END OF THE FCST PERIOD... THE PHASING OF THE
TWO STREAMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP A VERY HEALTHY DEFORMATION
ZONE FROM IA INTO MN.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY... THE INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW WILL STACK AND WALLOW OVER IA. THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE DEEP LL
MOISTURE SKIRTING OFF TO THE EAST AND A TREMENDOUS DRY SLOT
SURGING INTO THE GRT LAKES. HOWEVER... THE WRAPPING UP OF THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WITH
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SERLY FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE
LARGE LOW WILL ALSO KICK START AN INTENSE 24 HR PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OFF BOTH LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR ACROSS NERN WI/UP
OF MI AND NERN MN.

FINALLY ON SAT... THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AS THE STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND
DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD CHICAGO/MKE/GRB. THE DEEP
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL COMPLETELY BE DETACHED AT THIS POINT AND
ONLY BURSTS OF HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ND/SD AND SRN WI/ERN IA
AND NRN IL AS VORTICITY PINWHEELS AROUND THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM.

...APPALACHIANS TO INTERIOR NORTHEAST...

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ERN CANADA AND WEDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE UNSEASONABLE COLD HIGH AND SHALLOW DENSE
AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BE INVADED BY THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LOW
LVL MOISTURE FROM THE INTENSE STORM UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE COLD SECTOR POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM WRN NC NORTHWARD INTO SWRN VA/ERN
WV/FAR WRN MD AND WRN PA THURS AND CHRISTMAS DAY. ON DAY 3/SAT...
MODELS SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NC AND LIFT
NORTH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW
ENOUGH LOW LVL COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED ALONG THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN/WHITE MTNS TO WARRANT A
SLGT RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SNOW.

MUSHER

[AggieSpirit]

Mostly sleet with SOME big flakes here in Midlothian. Kids are going nuts!

Heck - the 33 year old kid is going nuts! Bring it Santa! Bring it!