SIO : INVEST 95S

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S 80.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONVEVTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO POOR.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
80.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. DESPITE BEING LOCATED LESS THAN 1200 NM
TO THE EAST OF A 50 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC 05S), THERE IS NO
INDICATION THAT IT IS NEGATIVELY AFFECTING CONSOLIDATION AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS IMPROVED,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MORE RECENT WEAKENING OF CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240004Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH
SHOW LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD LINES SPIRALING TOWARDS A TIGHTENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CIRRUS PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS THE
DISTURBANCE SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING.
VENTING IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BY AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 80.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EMBEDDED IN A DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
DISTURBANCE SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING.
OUTFLOW IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
BY AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

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