Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

A bit surprised to see Austin and Houston mention a chance for some wintry mix (sleet/rain) Monday into Tuesday in afternoon AFD's this far out in the forecast period. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

I honestly do believe the models are underestimating how cold it is and will continue to be through the next storm system.

[cwp419]

18z GFS has a stronger high to the NE which has resulted in slightly colder temps aloft and the 0c 850mb isotherm further south by 25-50 mi at 78 hours. This could be interesting if, in that time-frame, the trough axis is slightly offshore and the high to the NE is stronger than forecast.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


I have not had a whole lot of time to get into very detail of the models yet due to spending time
with family over the christmas holiday, however i would say we are looking at other fairly good
setup for mid week late tuesday - early thursday across northwestern, north tx. looks like it
could be a mix of frz rain,sleet and snow dont want to totally say for sure yet been some things
iam not TOTALLY locked in on with the precip types, temps however look cold enough for it
to be in a form of a winter precip.

so here is the bottom line points i feel are most important for you to keep in mind rightnow

. dont see MOISTURE being a concern much @ all for this mid week event
. LIKELY a winter precip event however still to early to assess precip types of SNOW,SLEET AND FRZ RAIN OR
COMBO OF ALL 3.

. temps will likely be cold enough for this to be all winter precip

. some travel issues are possible

. most likely area is western north tx towards the dallas-fortworth metroplex for late tues - thu am

i will just be quite up front on this though I DO NOT see this being a MAJOR snow storm event like what
just happened over parts of the region, a few inches possible with say on the high side 4-6 inches.
i would bet on a major ice event before i would another major snow storm.

i will post more thoughts later today or tomorrow after a few more runs come out. hope everyone had
a wonderful christmas holiday!

[Ntxw]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


I have not had a whole lot of time to get into very detail of the models yet due to spending time
with family over the christmas holiday, however i would say we are looking at other fairly good
setup for mid week late tuesday - early thursday across northwestern, north tx. looks like it
could be a mix of frz rain,sleet and snow dont want to totally say for sure yet been some things
iam not TOTALLY locked in on with the precip types, temps however look cold enough for it
to be in a form of a winter precip.

so here is the bottom line points i feel are most important for you to keep in mind rightnow

. dont see MOISTURE being a concern much @ all for this mid week event
. LIKELY a winter precip event however still to early to assess precip types of SNOW,SLEET AND FRZ RAIN OR
COMBO OF ALL 3.

. temps will likely be cold enough for this to be all winter precip

. some travel issues are possible

. most likely area is western north tx towards the dallas-fortworth metroplex for late tues - thu am

i will just be quite up front on this though I DO NOT see this being a MAJOR snow storm event like what
just happened over parts of the region, a few inches possible with say on the high side 4-6 inches.
i would bet on a major ice event before i would another major snow storm.

i will post more thoughts later today or tomorrow after a few more runs come out. hope everyone had
a wonderful christmas holiday!

I would say areas north of I-20 would be more of a sleet\snow event as the column of air doesn't seem to get above freezing (the further north and west you go). But from what the Texas AFD's have been saying is that at the start even areas way south possibly down to central and far northern southeast Texas would be a mixture of sleet and rain. And yeah I highly doubt this is anything like the last one (one of those once in a lifetime events) lol but by all means this one would be a typical mess. Coastal lows, hmm wonder what kind of history they have for fun in parts of Texas Subject to change.

[gofrogs]

What about new years time frmae the cmc had a storm in that time frame.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

iam not willing to say anything on new years yet i would say rather cold yes, possibly arctic cold yes BUT precip way to early to tell.. still a little less then a week out and models all over the place so iam not willing to put anything on that yet. models having a hard enough time just 3-5 days out and heck with this last system even 12-24 hrs out lol so its anyones guess... stay tuned..

[Ntxw]

What about new years time frmae the cmc had a storm in that time frame.

Many models have New Year's time frame to be not as wet as before for Texas (As of right now). Show's more of a blockbuster nor'easter.

[txagwxman]

18z has snow New Years Eve Central TX into E. TX.

[Ntxw]

18z has snow New Years Eve Central TX into E. TX.

I just saw that lets see if 0z continues that trend.

[gofrogs]

Godd thing i bought some gloves at sports authority today lol, it could be an intresting new years for new years after that run. Its trending folks, its trending.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM shows even more moisture available into the cold air on Tues\Weds for north Texas. This could get interesting.

[msstateguy83]

agreed with what was just said. i said it was not possible within a week two major events
BUT who the heck knows the way this winter has started off lol at this point i would not
put anything off the table!

[attallaman]

Any winter weather forecasted for SE TX, SW LA?

[srainhoutx]

NAM also suggests some 'cooler temps' when compared with the 12Z run. Much more moisture than the 12Z as well.

[Ntxw]

NAM also suggests some 'cooler temps' when compared with the 12Z run. Much more moisture than the 12Z as well.

This would mean wintry chances for central and southeast Texas go up and could have some potential icing early in the onslaught. 0z gfs should be running soon so we can compare it.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


iam gonna wait for the gfs to come out and do abit of comparing but for now i would say
i was at a 'slight' risk earlyer i would put all of northern, western, northwest tx into southern,central ok under a MODERATE RISK of a winter wx event again for tues-thu time frame.. this *COULD* i wanna stress *COULD* be another MAJOR event in the making, this would be a perfect time like tomorrow if temps are above frzing in your area to make sure you are prepared have plenty of food, water, anything you would need for being in several days at a time again, HOWEVER IF YOU GO OUT PLEASE BE EXTRA CAREFUL AS THE ROADS IN A LARGE PART OF OK AND WESTERN N TX ARE STILL SLICK IN SPOTS. iam not prepared to say we are looking at any sort of repeat but the run this evening is quite impressive. iam not saying go into full panic mode iam just saying this to let anyone on here listening to us know this could be another serious situation in the making.

if precip were to verify i now think we could be looking at some 'Moderately High amounts'
of winter precip.

bottom line this needs to be watched very very closely over the coming days... i will post more after
looking @ the gfs run.

[Ntxw]

This event has the *potential* to spread ice further south and that's what I'm probably more worried about. Snow is one thing, ice is just yuck!

[srainhoutx]

NAM also suggests some 'cooler temps' when compared with the 12Z run. Much more moisture than the 12Z as well.

This would mean wintry chances for central and southeast Texas go up and could have some potential icing early in the onslaught. 0z gfs should be running soon so we can compare it.

The 18Z NAM showed 2 meter freezing temps at the onset of the precip in parts of SE TX. Too much warmering to be an issue as the temps rise in our area as the Surface Low/Coastal Trough develops. Parts of Central TX could have some issues. NAM suggests snow in Northern MX as well.

[Ntxw]

NAM also suggests some 'cooler temps' when compared with the 12Z run. Much more moisture than the 12Z as well.

This would mean wintry chances for central and southeast Texas go up and could have some potential icing early in the onslaught. 0z gfs should be running soon so we can compare it.

The 18Z NAM showed 2 meter freezing temps at the onset of the precip in parts of SE TX. Too much warmering to be an issue as the temps rise in our area as the Surface Low/Coastal Trough develops. Parts of Central TX could have some issues. NAM suggests snow in Northern MX as well.

Would this be all snow for north Texas? Or snow\sleet\freezing rain type thing?