Will the 2003 season have late developments?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 5:59 am

By late season developments it means october and november.

My take is yes the 2003 season will be one of late developments.

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 6:07 am

We're just experiencing the "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" for now. I say hold on for a wild ride later! It has already been a wierd ride, so who knows what we will see for the rest of the season?

mf_dolphin · #3 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 6:31 am

Does "Let's get ready to rumble" mean anything to you? :-)

We are just now approaching the busiest part of the season. If we can push some of this dry air our of the hurricane basin then these systems should start to maintain their convection as they cross the ATL. Pretty soon all of our hurricane sources should be ready to start cooking.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 6:48 am

Late September into October isn't "late season", it's mid season. Late season is late October into November.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 7:08 am

57 From early october the peak of the season has passed and the mountain begins to decend.Late season is the period of 2 months after the peak passes.

GulfBreezer · #6 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 8:24 am

I think the majority of this seasons storms will be late Sept, all of Oct and the first week of November. I think we will have 7-8 weeks of a full plate!
JMO

rainstorm · #7 Postby **rainstorm** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 8:44 am

i am looking at an early end to the season. i am expecting a cold fall and winter over the east.
probably similar to last season, where the tropics cut off in late sept.

JCT777 · #8 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 8:52 am

rainstorm wrote:i am looking at an early end to the season. i am expecting a cold fall and winter over the east.
probably similar to last season, where the tropics cut off in late sept.

I will adjust this thinking by a few weeks. The fall will start warm in the east (September into mid-October), but will then get colder. IMO, the tropical Atlantic will have only 1 named storm after October 15.

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 9:08 am

I say "YES" also...

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 10:32 am

I say yes, we will, possibly a Tropical Storm in November.

SF

Rainband · #11 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 4:21 pm

rainstorm wrote:i am looking at an early end to the season. i am expecting a cold fall and winter over the east.
probably similar to last season, where the tropics cut off in late sept.

I disagree..Last year we had Elnino and that closed all the atlantic basin off early..including the GOM which usually produces late season storms!! :wink:

This year no El Nino..which means the GOM will be the place to look late in the season. :wink:

JetMaxx · #12 Postby **JetMaxx** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 9:20 pm

I expect at least one major hurricane in October....likely in the Western Caribbean.

The Florida peninsula hasn't been struck by an October major since 1950...they are waaaay past the return period...so I'd be alert, even into late October.

Lindaloo · #13 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Aug 08, 2003 11:56 pm

isnt the gom too cold in october and november for a cane, question mark.

JetMaxx · #14 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:01 pm

Not in the first half of October Lindaloo....Hilda and Opal both struck the northern Gulf Coast as major hurricanes; as did a killer hurricane in 1893.

There have also been several major hurricanes in the southern and eastern GOM in late October, and a couple even in November. I well remember hurricane Kate in November 1985...a 125 mph cat 3 (953 mb) in the SE GOM in mid-November. Due to cooler (68-70°) sst in the northern GOM, Kate did weaken significantly before landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida, but was still a 967 mb/ 100 mph cat-2 (gusts reached 100-110 mph at Port St Joe, and 85 mph in Apalachicola).

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Aug 09, 2003 1:10 pm

Lindaloo wrote:isnt the gom too cold in october and november for a cane, question mark.

As Perry posted above, depending on the overall pattern regime, the GOM temperatures can stay quite above normal in a warmer pattern (much like the reverse of what we're seeing along the Eastern Seaboard with constant coastal upwelling due to this persistant EC trough).

Perry, great information as always.

SF