Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

i would have to say after a closer look does not appear to be much of change in amts to
even be worth noting.. even though i said that while ago iam still looking @ the big picture
and still feel models are under est the system.. waiting for gfs

[weatherguy425]

From Larry Cosgrove...

The colder values will be driven by blocking pattern centered over Greenland. The computer models are showing a rare vast -AO/-NAO signal (joined by a +PNA ridge complex after January 5) that favors strong high pressure in central and eastern Canada against a developing storm along the coastline of the Carolinas on January 1. If you have ANY flight plans to the Interstate 95 corridor this coming weekend, be aware that there is still a threat for a heavy ice and snow event accompanied by significant winds and coastal flooding. The operational forecast models often "lose" strong cyclogenesis events until about four days before occurrence! Note also that the various ensemble packages are very aggressive on a major winter storm affecting Appalachia and the East Coast in the December 31 - January 3 time frame, followed by an intrusion of Arctic air which could send shivers to all in the U.S. living to the right of the Rocky Mountains.

A special update of the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter will be published on Monday evening dealing with the threat of widespread cold and the potential for heavy snow and ice in the eastern third of the U.S. above Interstate 20.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

OK just from what has just happened.. the 'type' of winter we are in where we know we could see above norm precip/below norm
temps... that with the models iam raising my 'THREAT' level of another winter storm again this week from moderate to HIGH... i know its not in the nws forecast NOW but i would expect amts to be much higher then models are forecasting, STRONGLY feel this system is being under estimated by the models.. complete details to come in the morning i will have some graphics up by then on this, also feel the forecast for the wkend could rapidly change @ anytime...

[srainhoutx]

Just remember we will not see any surface sampling of this feature until the 00Z's tomorrow at the earliest.

[Ntxw]

Are there good weather observations in Mexico that shares data with us? Just a thought

[HockeyTx82]

FT WORTH NWS.......

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST MON DEC 28 2009/
WINTER WEATHER EVENT STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO FALL IN
MANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WACO TO CANTON.
EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE AN INCH OR SO...WITH A FEW AREAS
RECEIVING 2 TO 3 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH OF ANY KIND...BUT IF CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS PLENTY OF ENERGY IN EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWING UP ON KBRO SOUNDING LAST
EVENING AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE BAJA ENERGY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY.

FORECASTING PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE CHALLENGING IN THESE TYPES OF
SITUATIONS WHERE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
/LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ CAN ALSO MODIFY THE THERMAL
PROFILE. IN THIS CASE...THE AIR WILL BE COLD AND DRY ENOUGH
INITIALLY SO THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL EITHER START OUT AS SNOW
OR TRANSITION TO SNOW WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE ONSET OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN AROUND PALESTINE...CENTERVILLE...
AND HEARNE.

AFTER PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN ZONES ON
THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DAY 7 AND BEYOND PERIOD AS A BITTER COLD AIRMASS
MOVES INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL U.S. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC INTRUSION COULD AFFECT NORTH TEXAS...
BUT THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON THAT PATTERN THIS FAR OUT.

[Portastorm]

For you folks in North Texas, your local NWSFO has a great graphic display outlining the winter weather event that begins late tonight. Here is the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=2

This is a very different event -- synoptically -- compared to the Christmas Eve storm so folks expecting hefty amounts of accumulating snow are going to be disappointed.

Looks like the heaviest accumulations will occur out by San Angelo and Brownwood with 2-3 inches likely and possibly a bit more.

The Hill Country will see a mix of rain/sleet/snow.

Austin will get a rock, er, rain.

[gboudx]

Austin will get a rock, er, rain.

I'm hoping for you to get some snow this winter Portastorm. Where my area was in the trace-1" zone yesterday, today it's the 1-2" zone. We're already making plans to grab the football and go out and kick it in the snow.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


the amounts will be going up just my opinion as stated earlyer models seriously under estimating this system i believe. nam 12z is running

[Ntxw]

12z Nam actually shifts the heaviest precip from San Angelo right through north central Texas

[Portastorm]

Austin will get a rock, er, rain.

I'm hoping for you to get some snow this winter Portastorm. Where my area was in the trace-1" zone yesterday, today it's the 1-2" zone. We're already making plans to grab the football and go out and kick it in the snow.

Thanks bro! Hey, I know your area has also had slim pickings this year so I hope you get that 1-2 inches or more!! I may have to do a road trip to Rockwall.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff for those in the TX Topic that may be interested...

Strong storm system will impact the area tonight through midday Wednesday.



Next El Nino enhanced weather system is currently offshore of Baja this morning moving eastward. Extensive high level cirrus will be spreading eastward today and tonight ahead of this storm with the active sub-tropical flow. IR images also show rapidly advancing cloud shield up the lower TX coast in conjunction with developing surface trough. Dry and cold air mass remains entrenched at the surface as cold air advection remains with higher pressures builds into the region from the north.



Will see little to no air mass modification with this storm when compared to the last (which produced a devastating EF3 tornado on the 23rd over Lufkin, TX and then all the strong winds on the 24th). This system will be much colder with no inland penetration of the warm sector and widespread cold rain over SE TX with sleet/snow on the NW edge over the NW Hill Country into the DFW area. Will see clouds thicken and lower tonight with rapid onset of light rain midday Tuesday as upglide of moist air over the surface cold dome commences. Initially dry surface layer will result in some wet bulb cooling as rainfall begins and expect temperatures to hover in the upper 30’s to low 40’s all day Tuesday. Could see the onset of precipitation as sleet or sleet/rain mix especially north of I-10, but there will be no accumulations and the profiles quickly warm to an all rain sounding by early afternoon Tuesday.



Coastal low forms off of S TX yet again and tracks toward Sabine Pass by early Wednesday. Widespread rains will encompass much of the area with lift maximized Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s for the entire event under cold air advection and rainfall. System should exit east by midday Wednesday with clearing late in the day…expect temperatures to struggle to make the 50 degree mark on Wed.



Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be common SE of US 59 with amounts of an inch or less N of US 59. Frozen precipitation will be held mainly W of I35 and north of Waco where 1-3 inches of snow accumulation will be possible from San Angelo to Fort Worth.



The warmest day of the week will come Thursday as SW winds ahead of a strong short wave/trough/modified arctic cold front arrives Thursday evening. Impressive dynamics appear with this system, but moisture looks lacking except on the CMC which produces a little bit of QPF Thursday evening. Air mass behind this front will be cold…and suspect it may be colder than guidance is showing given the large snow pack now in place from Canada to OK after the big blizzard this past weekend. Will undercut the GFS MEX numbers by at least 5 degrees for highs and lows and show freezing temps. again by Saturday morning with highs closer to 50 instead of 55.



Long range continues to show a cold and stormy pattern into the first two weeks of 2010.



Christmas Eve/Day Winter Storm:



A historic winter storm affected a large part of the central US and TX Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Heavy snowfall and blowing snow building to near blizzard conditions impacted NW and N TX on the 24th. Snowfall amounts of 8-12 inches occurred from Brownwood TX to Whicita Falls, TX with over 14-18 inches over central OK. Snow drifts along portions of US 287 in Montague County, TX were up to 4 feet on the evening of the 24th trapping motorist in their vehicles on the interstate. DFW recorded their first measurable snow on Christmas Eve since 1929 and Waco recorded is first ever measurable Christmas Eve snowfall. Powerful winds affected much of TX behind the departing system on the 24th with frequent gust to and over 40mph.



24th Wind Gusts:



IAH: 46mph

Galveston: 53mph

College Station: 44mph

Hobby: 51mph

Conroe: 45mph

Tomball: 48mph

Sugar Land: 56mph

Palacios: 53mph

Pearland: 46mph

Victoria: 56mph

Waco: 45mph

Fort Worth: 46mph

Port Aransas: 52mph

Alice: 64mph

Kingsville: 58mph

Corpus Christi NAS: 59mph

Corpus Christi Int Airport: 55mph

[gboudx]

Thanks bro! Hey, I know your area has also had slim pickings this year so I hope you get that 1-2 inches or more!! I may have to do a road trip to Rockwall.

Come on up. We can kick the football together. I'll pretend I'm the Saints kicker Garrett Hartley and shank it to the left.

[orangeblood]

With snow to liquid ratios estimated to be in the low to mid teens to one for this upcoming system, I would say we're looking at solid 2-3 inch totals across west central into north central texas. The NWS probably needs to bump their totals up for this storm.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

pending more data i will have a graphic posted within the next hour on my thoughts on this upcoming winter storm for north central, nw tx... this is looking much bigger by the minute and i agree forecast snow totals are gonna have to be increased. stay tuned details soon..

[Ntxw]

Snippet out of Lubbock that goes into what Srain said about data which could play an important role.

BIGGEST CONCERN I HAVE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL OBSERVATION NETWORKS /RAOB AND SFC/ SO IS BEING INITIALIZED
BASED ON LIMITED AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. AFTER SEEING
HOW BAD THE LAST SNOW-MAKING SYSTEM WAS HANDLED...WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE TROF GETS SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK TO TRULY SEE HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

[CaptinCrunch]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

pending more data i will have a graphic posted within the next hour on my thoughts on this upcoming winter storm for north central, nw tx... this is looking much bigger by the minute and i agree forecast snow totals are gonna have to be increased. stay tuned details soon..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Again models are not getting the full picture of this storm, this want be anything like what OK saw Christmas Eve, but totals are too low for NCTX, a 3 to 6 inche total is more likly than not, and with cold temps in place and a reinforcement of the cold with this system travel problems will be likely. System may start out as sleet before changing over to all snow, but either way this could be a real mess for DFW area by Wednesday morn.

I hope not cuz I will be traveling to Dallas Wed night for TSO show

[bktkck]

What an interesting winter so far. Here in Tyler we have had snow twice (none stuck to ground) and we still have the coldest 2 months in front of us. Thanks to all who contribute to making this forum great!

[Portastorm]

Snippet out of Lubbock that goes into what Srain said about data which could play an important role.

BIGGEST CONCERN I HAVE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL OBSERVATION NETWORKS /RAOB AND SFC/ SO IS BEING INITIALIZED
BASED ON LIMITED AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. AFTER SEEING
HOW BAD THE LAST SNOW-MAKING SYSTEM WAS HANDLED...WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE TROF GETS SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK TO TRULY SEE HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

Nice find Ntxw! This says it all.

[Ntxw]

Snippet out of Lubbock that goes into what Srain said about data which could play an important role.

BIGGEST CONCERN I HAVE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL OBSERVATION NETWORKS /RAOB AND SFC/ SO IS BEING INITIALIZED
BASED ON LIMITED AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. AFTER SEEING
HOW BAD THE LAST SNOW-MAKING SYSTEM WAS HANDLED...WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE TROF GETS SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK TO TRULY SEE HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

Nice find Ntxw! This says it all.

Holding my breath for you Portastorm, gut feeling is you should be included for at least something