Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Snippet out of Lubbock that goes into what Srain said about data which could play an important role.

BIGGEST CONCERN I HAVE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL OBSERVATION NETWORKS /RAOB AND SFC/ SO IS BEING INITIALIZED
BASED ON LIMITED AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. AFTER SEEING
HOW BAD THE LAST SNOW-MAKING SYSTEM WAS HANDLED...WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE TROF GETS SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK TO TRULY SEE HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.

Good catch Ntxw. Folks there will likely be a lot of these type forecasting challenges ahead in the days to come. One thing to remember is that we often see surprises within 18-36 hours that guidance just do not handle well in this type of setup.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


do some of yall agree with the thinking i mean i know you cant say just b/c of what happened you cant compare and say it will repeat, but that said it is REALLY hard as has been stated to get a real feel on this system currently...

edit: i will just be very blunt i think nws has down played this way to much should atleast put in the hwo's it has the possibilty
of being a major snow storm, b/c at this point its hard to say its NOT... but that is just my opinion!

[srainhoutx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


do some of yall agree with the thinking to i mean i know you cant say just b/c of what happened you cant compare and say it will repeat, but that said it is REALLY hard as has been stated to get a real feel on this system currently...

Keep an eye on the kicker shortwave dropping SE from the Pacific NW.

[CaptinCrunch]

I still see a cross polar flow setup by Jan 1 taken place, and even if it kinda back doors into the NTX area from the NE, with snow pack and already cold temps this could be a real pipe buster with highs not getting out of the 20's for a few days. If it comes due south then low 20's will be as warm as it gets for a few days.

[CaptinCrunch]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


do some of yall agree with the thinking i mean i know you cant say just b/c of what happened you cant compare and say it will repeat, but that said it is REALLY hard as has been stated to get a real feel on this system currently...

edit: i will just be very blunt i think nws has down played this way to much should atleast put in the hwo's it has the possibilty
of being a major snow storm, b/c at this point its hard to say its NOT... but that is just my opinion!

I'm with ya bro, this has classic 77/78 winter storm all over it. Waiting to see how fast NWS scrambles to CYA

[srainhoutx]

Notice how late Midland/Odessa and San Angelo took to issue the morning AFD. Perhaps a 'hint' of the challenges ahead.

[Portastorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


do some of yall agree with the thinking i mean i know you cant say just b/c of what happened you cant compare and say it will repeat, but that said it is REALLY hard as has been stated to get a real feel on this system currently...

edit: i will just be very blunt i think nws has down played this way to much should atleast put in the hwo's it has the possibilty
of being a major snow storm, b/c at this point its hard to say its NOT... but that is just my opinion!

I'm with ya bro, this has classic 77/78 winter storm all over it. Waiting to see how fast NWS scrambles to CYA

In their (NWS) defense, what would you have them say and what evidence would they be using to base a more bullish statement? Up to this moment, the modeling does not support more accumulation. Does it? And we have already established that the system that will create the weather isn't even being measured yet due to a lack of sampling data. So I think they are only going on what they know at the moment. Nothing more, nothing less.

[msstateguy83]

i agree with that statement to i would say iam in the middle here BUT
you cant wait till few hours out and say oh we have a blizzard, then you
have people stuck on highways, county roads, work wherever they are
its just my opinion its better to air on the side of caution then to wait
till the last minute and say nothing but oh a inch or two of snow possible.
then i know there is the side of saying something, nothing happening
you lose some of the trust w/the public, that is not a good thing either
for future problems. so i can see it from both sides of the picture

[CaptinCrunch]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


do some of yall agree with the thinking i mean i know you cant say just b/c of what happened you cant compare and say it will repeat, but that said it is REALLY hard as has been stated to get a real feel on this system currently...

edit: i will just be very blunt i think nws has down played this way to much should atleast put in the hwo's it has the possibilty
of being a major snow storm, b/c at this point its hard to say its NOT... but that is just my opinion!

I'm with ya bro, this has classic 77/78 winter storm all over it. Waiting to see how fast NWS scrambles to CYA

In their (NWS) defense, what would you have them say and what evidence would they be using to base a more bullish statement? Up to this moment, the modeling does not support more accumulation. Does it? And we have already established that the system that will create the weather isn't even being measured yet due to a lack of sampling data. So I think they are only going on what they know at the moment. Nothing more, nothing less.

Difference with this system is the upper low off in the gulf with all the moisture in the world to work with, and the nothern jet dipping into NTX.

[Ntxw]

i agree with that statement to i would say iam in the middle here BUT
you cant wait till few hours out and say oh we have a blizzard, then you
have people stuck on highways, county roads, work wherever they are
its just my opinion its better to air on the side of caution then to wait
till the last minute and say nothing but oh a inch or two of snow possible.
then i know there is the side of saying something, nothing happening
you lose some of the trust w/the public, that is not a good thing either
for future problems. so i can see it from both sides of the picture

That is very true, I remember the Christmas eve system as night fell the traffic and slipping and sliding started to get really bad even down to the DFW area. People watching and tuning in the night before really had only heard it being a possible flake or two at that mostly NW. Unfortunately several lives were lost (though can't really relay this directly due to lack of information, perhaps they decided to venture out anyway who knows) which is just devastating for something so nice as a white Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

i agree with that statement to i would say iam in the middle here BUT
you cant wait till few hours out and say oh we have a blizzard, then you
have people stuck on highways, county roads, work wherever they are
its just my opinion its better to air on the side of caution then to wait
till the last minute and say nothing but oh a inch or two of snow possible.
then i know there is the side of saying something, nothing happening
you lose some of the trust w/the public, that is not a good thing either
for future problems. so i can see it from both sides of the picture

The NWS has issued Special Weather Statements and some Winter Storm Watches. What else can they do? The public should be savvy enough to know that the NWS is doing everything they can do to advise people of the potential at the time they issue such information. We have to give them (NWS) credit for advising folks in calm and reasonable manner. We that watch weather events unfold from an enthusiast standpoint can be a little more aggressive, but the NWS has to offer the potential at the time the data is available. Just sayin…

[msstateguy83]

Captin exactly! i just hope the hell we dont get alot more up here its still a dang mess still as it is....

[msstateguy83]

local tv station which i wont name in the w.falls/lawton market which i dont care for at all keeps saying this am with one of the onair meteorologist's no chance this next system will do anything big for the w.falls area or any part of northern tx as we dont have near enough moisture to work with and its a totally different type of system lol we shall see about that..

[Portastorm]

Difference with this system is the upper low off in the gulf with all the moisture in the world to work with, and the nothern jet dipping into NTX.

What upper low? To my knowledge there will not be an upper low in the Gulf. This is an upper-level trough moving across the state which will pull in Gulf moisture. Is that to what you are referring?

Yeah, I know the differences between storm systems. My point is we all see much of the same modeling data that NWS forecasters do and I haven't seen any QPF values which would support heavy (4 inches or more) snowfall in Texas. That being said, we all also know that due to a lack of sampling data we cannot know for sure how strong/sharp this trough will be and its exact track. We should know more with tonight's 0z data. The NWS forecasters have to go on what data they have currently and any beyond-the-models forecasts skills they have.

[CaptinCrunch]

Captin exactly! i just hope the hell we dont get alot more up here its still a dang mess still as it is....

The way things look as of now the heavy snow will cut across NCTX, so you should see only a few inches added to yall left overs.....lol (2 to 3")

[Portastorm]

local tv station which i wont name in the w.falls/lawton market which i dont care for at all keeps saying this am with one of the onair meteorologist's no chance this next system will do anything big for the w.falls area or any part of northern tx as we dont have near enough moisture to work with and its a totally different type of system lol we shall see about that..

Now I would totally agree with you that these kinds of comments (made by the OCM) are ridiculous!

[Ntxw]

i agree with that statement to i would say iam in the middle here BUT
you cant wait till few hours out and say oh we have a blizzard, then you
have people stuck on highways, county roads, work wherever they are
its just my opinion its better to air on the side of caution then to wait
till the last minute and say nothing but oh a inch or two of snow possible.
then i know there is the side of saying something, nothing happening
you lose some of the trust w/the public, that is not a good thing either
for future problems. so i can see it from both sides of the picture

The NWS has issued Special Weather Statements and some Winter Storm Watches. What else can they do? The public should be savvy enough to know that the NWS is doing everything they can do to advise people of the potential at the time they issue such information. We have to give them (NWS) credit for advising folks in calm and reasonable manner. We that watch weather events unfold from an enthusiast standpoint can be a little more aggressive, but the NWS has to offer the potential at the time the data is available. Just sayin…

They do a good job with what they have though at times hesitation can bite. As with hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis or anything like that timing is everything. The sooner (oh my god i said that yuck) you give warning to people, the more lives you will save. The worse disasters as we have seen have all usually been the ones that surprises us as did the 1900 galveston hurricane etc. Hopefully we'll continue to improve our methods though as complicated as the atmosphere is we probably will never reach perfection.

[Weatherdude20]

I think the NWS is publicly down playing this Winter Storm, but since I'm associated I must say they are considering upgrading or further issuing advisories /Watches/Warnings at the current time...

Although it is more likely than not (the possiblity for higher accumulations than current forecasts) we still will air on the 1-3 or 2-4 inch totals. However this is still our main disscusion and this event is still developing at any time forecasts can change so please stay tuned...

Any contribution and opions are welcome to this threat !
Please excuse my spelling errors- Very busy and in a hurry...

[vbhoutex]

I still see a cross polar flow setup by Jan 1 taken place, and even if it kinda back doors into the NTX area from the NE, with snow pack and already cold temps this could be a real pipe buster with highs not getting out of the 20's for a few days. If it comes due south then low 20's will be as warm as it gets for a few days.

I'm glad me and a few others are not the only one seeing this. I am not as savvy as you and some others with the modeling, etc. but it sure looks like we are continuing the "step down" to a colder and stormier regime for at least a few weeks.
I am starting to wonder if the models are under doing the moisture for the current storm coming in to W TX, etc. Last look at the models seems to me that at least W/NW TX is going to get a good dump of winter precip again.

[CaptinCrunch]

Difference with this system is the upper low off in the gulf with all the moisture in the world to work with, and the nothern jet dipping into NTX.

What upper low? To my knowledge there will not be an upper low in the Gulf. This is an upper-level trough moving across the state which will pull in Gulf moisture. Is that to what you are referring?

Yeah, I know the differences between storm systems. My point is we all see much of the same modeling data that NWS forecasters do and I haven't seen any QPF values which would support heavy (4 inches or more) snowfall in Texas. That being said, we all also know that due to a lack of sampling data we cannot know for sure how strong/sharp this trough will be and its exact track. We should know more with tonight's 0z data. The NWS forecasters have to go on what data they have currently and any beyond-the-models forecasts skills they have.

I ment trough, the dynamics of this system leads me to believe the models will undercut the storm totals. The NWS do their jobs well, as they can only go with data samples, and they know the models dont do winter storms justice. This will be a long winter for them thats for sure