Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

I think the NWS is publicly down playing this Winter Storm, but since I'm associated I must say they are considering upgrading or further issuing advisories /Watches/Warnings at the current time...
Although it is more likely than not (the possiblity for higher accumulations than current forecasts) we still will air on the 1-3 or 2-4 inch totals. However this is still our main disscusion and this event is still developing at any time forecasts can change so please stay tuned...

Any contribution and opions are welcome to this threat !
Please excuse my spelling errors- Very busy and in a hurry...

Good Post!

[Portastorm]

Difference with this system is the upper low off in the gulf with all the moisture in the world to work with, and the nothern jet dipping into NTX.

What upper low? To my knowledge there will not be an upper low in the Gulf. This is an upper-level trough moving across the state which will pull in Gulf moisture. Is that to what you are referring?

Yeah, I know the differences between storm systems. My point is we all see much of the same modeling data that NWS forecasters do and I haven't seen any QPF values which would support heavy (4 inches or more) snowfall in Texas. That being said, we all also know that due to a lack of sampling data we cannot know for sure how strong/sharp this trough will be and its exact track. We should know more with tonight's 0z data. The NWS forecasters have to go on what data they have currently and any beyond-the-models forecasts skills they have.

I ment trough, the dynamics of this system leads me to believe the models will undercut the storm totals. The NWS do their jobs well, as they can only go with data samples, and they know the models dont do winter storms justice. This will be a long winter for them thats for sure

Ah ... yes indeed. The surface trough along the coast. That will indeed play a factor in the QPF amounts. Yes, I'm sure it will be a long winter for them. They have their hands full!

A good forecasting rule of thumb is that when an upper level trough/shortwave rolls west to east across the state, you can usually expect a surface trough to develop somewhere along the Texas coast. Then ... you get the issue of how much moisture does that upper-level feature have to work with and how deep does the coastal trough develop.

Amazingly enough ... still a number of questions without answers.

[Ntxw]

Well this is what the latest 12z NAM has as for accumulations.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=FWS

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

well here i go again i will take a shot at this one i could be to far nw on the higher snow amounts (hope iam for my sake) lol
but i think this has the chance of being a major snow storm for parts of northern, north central tx for tomorrow into wed morning
stay tuned likely will change this later in the day as more information becomes available.

[cycloneye]

To Portastorm,Steve and other members who are always interested about what is the latest on how El Nino is dpoing,here is the latest update from Climate Prediction Center.No big changes from last weeks update meaning a continuation of El Nino in a moderate to strong status.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.8ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.2ºC

This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.9ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño1+2= +0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ssta_c.gif

[CaptinCrunch]

If you looked at this system setup and placed it in a spring time inviroment you would be looking a a heavy rain event for a good part of texas, and 9 out of 10 times when you get the upper trough out intot he gulf you get a upper low forming off the mexican coast. The gulf is still plenty warm for a rapid upper low development on the western edge of the trough.

I'm excited, these are the types of systems that just get you going, I can't wait till spring and storm chasing season, have a feeling this year is going to be nasty.

[srainhoutx]

To Portastorm,Steve and other members who are always interested about what is the latest on how El Nino is dpoing,here is the latest update from Climate Prediction Center.No big changes from last weeks update meaning a continuation of El Nino in a moderate to strong status.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.8ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.2ºC

This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.9ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño1+2= +0.5ºC

Thanks Luis.

[cycloneye]

Oops,I forgot to post this graphic from CFS model that shows next winter will not be like this one as El Nino will be gone well before next fall.

[CaptinCrunch]

To Portastorm,Steve and other members who are always interested about what is the latest on how El Nino is dpoing,here is the latest update from Climate Prediction Center.No big changes from last weeks update meaning a continuation of El Nino in a moderate to strong status.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.8ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño 1+2= -0.2ºC

This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.9ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño1+2= +0.5ºC

Thanks Luis.

El Nino should peak out over the next few week, then start it's decline, but not before leaving it's winter mark on the Gulf Coast

[Weatherdude20]

Well this is what the latest 12z NAM has as for accumulations.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=FWS

Not sure how much trust we can put in this map, but it sure is promising !

Note: It does seem to comply with data and various other models we have at hand ...

[Ntxw]

Well this is what the latest 12z NAM has as for accumulations.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=FWS

Not sure how much trust we can put in this map, but it sure is promising !

Note: It does seem to comply with data and various other models we have at hand ...

Yeah of course nothing is set in stone, but gives a picture of potentials.

[CaptinCrunch]

Well this is what the latest 12z NAM has as for accumulations.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=FWS

Not sure how much trust we can put in this map, but it sure is promising !

Note: It does seem to comply with data and various other models we have at hand ...

My Grandpa always said "son just because you see it in print dont make it true"

[Weatherdude20]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

well here i go again i will take a shot at this one i could be to far nw on the higher snow amounts (hope iam for my sake) lol
but i think this has the chance of being a major snow storm for parts of northern, north central tx for tomorrow into wed morning
stay tuned likely will change this later in the day as more information becomes available.

Wow dude

[Weatherdude20]

Well this is what the latest 12z NAM has as for accumulations.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.p ... TIONID=FWS

Not sure how much trust we can put in this map, but it sure is promising !

Note: It does seem to comply with data and various other models we have at hand ...

My Grandpa always said "son just because you see it in print dont make it true"

Basically what Im saying but actually seems to comply.

[Ntxw]

Weatherdude20, his maps actually does follow the trend of the models except that he is betting this storm will be stronger than forecast so his totals are a few inches higher

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS MAP TO ME FROM OUN LOL!!!!!!!!!!! we are totally all over the map with this system!!!
i *DONT* see any runs that push it further w unless iam missing something?!???[img]

[iorange55]

I do agree that this storm may be a little bigger than they say, but I'm afraid we're jinxing it so I think we should all be negative about it, it worked last time.

[Ntxw]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS MAP TO ME FROM OUN LOL!!!!!!!!!!! we are totally all over the map with this system!!!
i *DONT* see any runs that push it further w unless iam missing something?!???[img]

Even conservatively I think the map should be reversed lol.

[Portastorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 AM CST MON DEC 28 2009

.UPDATE...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. EITHER WAY THE SOUTH PLAINS LOOK TO GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW. PLANNING ON GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

****************

Perhaps this reasoning is being shared by the NWSFO Norman office and, thus, they have shown their precip maps accordingly?

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's a nice little gif for ya
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/graphicast/image2.gif

just need to bump up the totals and we are set.