Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS MAP TO ME FROM OUN LOL!!!!!!!!!!! we are totally all over the map with this system!!!
i *DONT* see any runs that push it further w unless iam missing something?!???[img]

Even conservatively I think the map should be reversed lol.

Hahaha agree ! even conservatively I think it should be reserved ! lol compare it to the other maps ATLEAST...

[Ntxw]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 AM CST MON DEC 28 2009

.UPDATE...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. EITHER WAY THE SOUTH PLAINS LOOK TO GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW. PLANNING ON GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

****************

Perhaps this reasoning is being shared by the NWSFO Norman office and, thus, they have shown their precip maps accordingly?

Correct me if I'm wrong, there seems to be two separate areas of good precip. One tracking on the NM\TX border in the south plains and the other going from San Angelo to DFW southwards. I would assume Lubbock is more focused on their batch.

[Weatherdude20]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 AM CST MON DEC 28 2009

.UPDATE...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. EITHER WAY THE SOUTH PLAINS LOOK TO GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW. PLANNING ON GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

****************

Perhaps this reasoning is being shared by the NWSFO Norman office and, thus, they have shown their precip maps accordingly?

Correct me if I'm wrong, there seems to be two separate areas of good precip. One tracking on the NM\TX border in the south plains and the other going from San Angelo to DFW. I would assume Lubbock is more focus' on their batch.

Correct

[Weatherdude20]

Here's a nice little gif for ya
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/graphicast/image2.gif

just need to bump up the totals and we are set.

Everyones are already seen this :p but thanks

Ps: The snowfall totals should be tweaked by 2:30.

[wxman22]

Look what the 12z GFS throws out next Tuesday/Wednesday...



Hey, we can dream cant we?

[Johnny]

I've got a question. If you were to set up camp somewhere to see the highest totals, where would that be?

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1110 AM CST MON DEC 28 2009

.UPDATE...
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. EITHER WAY THE SOUTH PLAINS LOOK TO GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST
TOMORROW. PLANNING ON GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY BE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

****************

Perhaps this reasoning is being shared by the NWSFO Norman office and, thus, they have shown their precip maps accordingly?

Correct me if I'm wrong, there seems to be two separate areas of good precip. One tracking on the NM\TX border in the south plains and the other going from San Angelo to DFW. I would assume Lubbock is more focus' on their batch.

Correct

If you glance at the 12Z GGEM you'll notice an Upper Level Feature tacking along N MX/ NW TX and attending surface reflection a bit further S and W in Northern MX.

[Ntxw]

If you glance at the 12Z GGEM you'll notice an Upper Level Feature tacking along N MX/ NW TX and attending surface reflection a bit further S and W in Northern MX.

Could you explain more of what this means? I'm not so smart =P

[iorange55]

Blah not sure I get this, but alright

.UPDATE...
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED IN NORTH
TEXAS BEFORE 6 AM AND NONE IN THE METROPLEX BEFORE NOON. GFS/NAM
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WANTED TO GET THIS INFO OUT NOW. WILL
LIKELY ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE 1-2 INCHES IN THE WEST AND LESS THAN ONE
ACROSS METROPLEX AND SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.,.WITH REST OF GRIDS UPDATED/ADJUSTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. 84

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't slowing down the system up the totals? Just curious.

[srainhoutx]

If you glance at the 12Z GGEM you'll notice an Upper Level Feature tacking along N MX/ NW TX and attending surface reflection a bit further S and W in Northern MX.

Could you explain more of what this means? I'm not so smart =P

Not much time for me, but basically the GGEM suggests three features. Upper Level Disturance track ENE out of New Mexico, surface reflection further SW in Northern Mexico tracking E across Northern MX into Central TX and a developing coastal low...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[Ntxw]

Thanks, I guess that explains the different areas of heavy precip.

[Big O]

Does the 12Z European show snow for Dallas around Sunday, January 3? I have plans to attend the Dallas Cowboys game and wanted to get a feel for travel conditions Saturday and Sunday as I will be driving.

Hour 144 appears to show the freezing line to the South of DFW. However, what is not clear to me is whether there is precipitation occurring at the time:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

[Brent]

Does the 12Z European show snow for Dallas around Sunday, January 3? I have plans to attend the Dallas Cowboys game and wanted to get a feel for travel conditions Saturday and Sunday as I will be driving.

Hour 144 appears to show the freezing line to the South of DFW. However, what is not clear to me is whether there is precipitation occurring at the time:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

That would be dry and cold. There's a high pressure over Texas which will keep moisture away. Assuming of course it verifies.

[TexasStorm]

Is it just me or does it seem like the local NWS offices are starting to write this storm off?

[AggieSpirit]

Is it just me or does it seem like the local NWS offices are starting to write this storm off?

NWS FTW needs more people I disagree with.

[HockeyTx82]

Does this storm look anything like the first storm that hit our area earlier in the month. The one that came out of Mexico, (did not have much data on), hit El Paso, (notice the WST our for that area) and then swung up here and gave us snow? Just throwing that out there based off what I remember and nothing more. Any thoughts?

[Portastorm]

Here's how desperate I am ... the 18z NAM is getting my hopes up!

This run has more cold air it appears and a wider precip shield over the state, or so it seems.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/model_l.shtml

[Ntxw]

Models are starting to trend stronger with this storm as many of us have stated. It's getting closer and data is getting better. Lets see how it pans out. And this is somewhat different Hockey no two storms are the same. This one has more cold air to work with. So rather than the back wrap around snow\moisture, the main shield that gave constant rain in the storm earlier in the month would rather be frozen precip. This is what gave W Falls and Okc heavy snow last week. Convection in the warm sector (heavy rain and thunderstorms) drove in to the cold air and just dumped snow.

[Kelarie]

Fun fun

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM 9 AM TUESDAY
UNTIL 9AM WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
KILLEEN...HILLSBORO...SULPHUR SPRINGS...

.SNOW WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE WEST TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON SNOWFALL WILL MELT EXCEPT IN WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY
REFREEZE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SO CONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159-290400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0004.091229T1500Z-091230T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...
HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS...
COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO
200 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

SNOW WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE WEST TO A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON SNOWFALL WILL MELT EXCEPT IN WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY
REFREEZE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY SO CONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.