Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wow, the 12z GFS today is depicting the coldest air of the season for the deep south for the first week of Jan. Let's see if it hangs onto this.

I thought the coldest air of the season for us was supposed to be this weekend after the christmas storm moves through? At least last was what the models and forecasts were showing days ago. Oh well I guess if they keep showing it week after week maybe one time they will get it right. Getting to the point where I have to see it to believe it.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking like next weekends cold for the deep south is still on!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What are they showing Dean? Elaborate some for me. Have not heard anything today but just a cool down going into the new years weekend. As I mentioned the other day our nws office was saying coldest airtic air with hard freezes likely after christmas. Hit 33 this morning. Far from coldest of season. A day or possibly two if they are still showing it I might believe it. Until then just like hurricane season I will believe it when I see it when a storm is at my doorstep.

[Dean4Storms]

Both the GFS and EURO have hung onto this trough for the east for many consecutive runs for this upcoming weekend. The AFD from the NWS in Tally have mentioned it and I also read the BHAM AFD mentioning it. It looks like a hard freeze for some of northern Florida Sunday morning as a 1027mb High breaks off from the artic high and settles down over our area per latest run.

[Dean4Storms]

From Tally NWS AFD on this weekend.........


UPDATE...ALTHOUGH THE 00 UTC HI-RES EURO IS NOT IN JUST YET...THE
LOW-RES VERSION DOES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS IN
ALLOWING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE TO BREAK FREE OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...AND ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT WEAKER IN MAGNITUDE THAN
WE WOULD EXPECT (1027 MB)...THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS THAT THE HIGH WILL CENTER ITSELF VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD INDEED
ALLOW FOR A WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING HARD FREEZE.

[Dean4Storms]

Another item to keep in mind which I don't see them mentioning is the possibility of a mid south snow cover from the storm expected late in the week. Between the plains snow cover and any that accumulates over the mid south this coming week the artic air would be less able to modify, thus the air could be even colder than what the models are predicting. Just a thought.

[attallaman]

Any winter precip forecasted for my area out of this next L system or just more cold rain?

[Dean4Storms]

Any winter precip forecasted for my area out of this next L system or just more cold rain?

Looks like a cold/cool rain this week depending on the exact track of the low. However, if the long term runs of the GFS and especially the Euro model comes to fruition after the 5th things could get very interesting for the south all the way down to the Gulf coast. The Euro is showing a 1066mb High just north of Alaska after the 5th and the upper pattern it depicts would leave the door open for some MAJOR Siberian Cold to dive down into the States. If that materializes one has to believe this active ElNino and STJ that we have seen streaking along the Gulf coast could bring a very interesting set up for the deep south and up the eastern Seaboard! Will have to wait and see how it plays out. I cannot recall ever seeing a 1066mb High over the northern hemisphere, at least in my lifetime.

[attallaman]

So for it to snow real good here in the deep south the air temperature at all levels of the atmosphere needs to be real cold along with a good mix of moisture for it to snow? Is that correct or not?

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this morning's NWS New Orleans, LA morning discussion for Dec.28th.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. ATTM
THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERECES IN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS. BOTH WOULD
LIKE TO BRING SOME KIND OF MOISTURE BACK OVER A VERY COLD DOME OF
AIR. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE AT THIS AND MAKES AN ABSOLUTE
WINTRY MESS OF THINGS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE KEEPING ANY AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIP TO A MINIMUM.
WILL NOT REMARK ON ANY PARTICULARS OF THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN TO
SAY THAT GULF LOWS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT AN UNUSUAL RATE THIS
SEASON AND ANOTHER GULF LOW DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME.

[vbhoutex]

So for it to snow real good here in the deep south the air temperature at all levels of the atmosphere needs to be real cold along with a good mix of moisture for it to snow? Is that correct or not?

It is a little more complicated than that but, yes your statement is correct. If all the levels are not cold enough and mositure is not available, then it could be a cold rain event, or an icing or sleet event as opposed to a snow event. If all levels are cold enough and the moisture is available then it should be snow.

[Big Easy]

So for it to snow real good here in the deep south the air temperature at all levels of the atmosphere needs to be real cold along with a good mix of moisture for it to snow? Is that correct or not?

It is a little more complicated than that but, yes your statement is correct. If all the levels are not cold enough and mositure is not available, then it could be a cold rain event, or an icing or sleet event as opposed to a snow event. If all levels are cold enough and the moisture is available then it should be snow.

Do you feel at this time, there is better then a 50/50 chance of seeing some sort of Snow here in New orleans, starting on Sunday evening, January 3rd?

Just picking your brain from what you know at this time, realizing things are very dynamic and could change dramatically one way or the other.

Thanks.

[RNGR]

Does anyone know where I can find graphics for the ECWMF that show precip and temperature?

[vbhoutex]

So for it to snow real good here in the deep south the air temperature at all levels of the atmosphere needs to be real cold along with a good mix of moisture for it to snow? Is that correct or not?

It is a little more complicated than that but, yes your statement is correct. If all the levels are not cold enough and mositure is not available, then it could be a cold rain event, or an icing or sleet event as opposed to a snow event. If all levels are cold enough and the moisture is available then it should be snow.

Do you feel at this time, there is better then a 50/50 chance of seeing some sort of Snow here in New orleans, starting on Sunday evening, January 3rd?

Just picking your brain from what you know at this time, realizing things are very dynamic and could change dramatically one way or the other.

Thanks.

Off the top of my head relying on what I have glanced at in the models(to say the least I concentrate further west of you in TX) I would place the chance at less than 50% for that time frame. That is partially based on the fact we aren't expecting rain/precip here in SE TX till the 4th(within the time frame you specified). NCEP models page seems to be down at the moment so I can't check closer. I will try another site and/or come back later and look at it.
Edit: Able to go through another site and I still stand by the above. It does look like it will be a cold rain on the 4th/5th.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone know where I can find graphics for the ECWMF that show precip and temperature?

Really difficult to find as it is a pay to see service

[RNGR]

Does anyone know where I can find graphics for the ECWMF that show precip and temperature?

Really difficult to find as it is a pay to see service

thats right i remember hearing that elsewhere. thanks

[Brent]

Cold and dry looks like the pattern to me after this week. I see a cold rain Wednesday, then more cold rain Thursday/Friday(maybe some flurries in the TN Valley but otherwise nothing), then extremely cold and dry for the start of 2010. Pattern looks suppressed.

[Stormcenter]

I think you will find this afternoon's HPC discussion somewhat interesting.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Cold and dry looks like the pattern to me after this week. I see a cold rain Wednesday, then more cold rain Thursday/Friday(maybe some flurries in the TN Valley but otherwise nothing), then extremely cold and dry for the start of 2010. Pattern looks suppressed.

[Jag95]

You have to love how the 12Z GFS hovers that 850mb 0 degree line so close to the Gulf Coast for such an extended period of time. That's fun to look at. If we could get this low at 216-hrs a little further north, we could shut the south down for a week.

[vbhoutex]

Do you feel at this time, there is better then a 50/50 chance of seeing some sort of Snow here in New orleans, starting on Sunday evening, January 3rd?

Just picking your brain from what you know at this time, realizing things are very dynamic and could change dramatically one way or the other.

Always feel free to pick our brains. Just make sure you leave enough for us to function.LOL!!
I've taken a longer look at the models and it does appear that there is the possibility of some winter precip in the NO area in the Jan. 5-6 time frame. As always this goes with the caveat stated in your last sentence above.