Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[weatherguy425]

The 6z and 18z runs are indeed known to be a little "funny", due to the fact that these runs dont have any new data put into them...they're simply re runs of the 0z and 12z.

[southerngale]

A big welcome to all the new members!

I hope you enjoy yourselves and don't hesitate to ask any questions you may have.

[mysterymachinebl]

All of the meteorologists on TV tonight seem to think we'll be lucky to have an 1" around here.

[Ntxw]

They said the day(s) before the Christmas eve storm to be a few flakes maybe a dusting and look how that turned out to be lol. Officially 3 inches with blowing snow and low visibility at times.

[iorange55]

They seem to think that the snow will melt on contact for a good time while it's snowing, and not stick till later. Which is a better thing than I thought, I thought it was cause they were predicting less moisture, but it seems to be they think most will melt, which I think won't be the case for most of the day, so as long as they'll be moisture I think the totals will be higher.


not 6 inches, but maybe 2-3 inches.

[Ntxw]

They seem to think that the snow will melt on contact for a good time while it's snowing, and not stick till later. Which is a better thing than I thought, I thought it was cause they were predicting less moisture, but it seems to be they think most will melt, which I think won't be the case for most of the day, so as long as they'll be moisture I think the totals will be higher.


not 6 inches, but maybe 2-3 inches.

Hey! You're supposed to be negative until it happens! Jeez =P might ruin it!

[iorange55]

They seem to think that the snow will melt on contact for a good time while it's snowing, and not stick till later. Which is a better thing than I thought, I thought it was cause they were predicting less moisture, but it seems to be they think most will melt, which I think won't be the case for most of the day, so as long as they'll be moisture I think the totals will be higher.


not 6 inches, but maybe 2-3 inches.

Hey! You're supposed to be negative until it happens! Jeez =P might ruin it!

Lol well if they said less moisture, or the models were trending to less moisture then I would be. But it seems to be they think its just a melting factor, and I just don't see it melting on contact for too long.

[aubrn34]

They seem to think that the snow will melt on contact for a good time while it's snowing, and not stick till later. Which is a better thing than I thought, I thought it was cause they were predicting less moisture, but it seems to be they think most will melt, which I think won't be the case for most of the day, so as long as they'll be moisture I think the totals will be higher.


not 6 inches, but maybe 2-3 inches.

Hey! You're supposed to be negative until it happens! Jeez =P might ruin it!

Lol well if they said less moisture, or the models were trending to less moisture then I would be. But it seems to be they think its just a melting factor, and I just don't see it melting on contact for too long.

I still have snow on the ground in my front yard here in Dallas, so I also have a hard time believing that tomorrow's snow will melt on contact.

[Ntxw]

Our low tonight is forecasted well below freezing and with clouds rolling in I have a hard time believing it's going to warm up and with dry air aloft if anything wet bulbing should cool it down even more.

[iorange55]

Our low tonight is forecasted well below freezing and with clouds rolling in I have a hard time believing it's going to warm up and with dry air aloft if anything wet bulbing should cool it down even more.

Well since it's not expected to come until later it could warm up a tad like 35-37, but I think once the snow starts within an hour it'll be down to 32. I mean it was almost 40 on Christmas eve and the ground was really warm, and it only took about two hours for it to start sticking, so I'm thinking an hour at most this time.

[txtiff]

changed my graphic to include a larger area of 6"+ amounts, also moved the 3-6" inch line further into oklahoma.. i think this is a pretty good forecast for what is going to take place. more updates later in the evening.

edit: would also just add i took the 6-8" out and just did 6"+ b/c i think anything over 6 inches with this system could be
pushing it I DO NOT at this time see us getting that high with amounts in a widespread area. there could be some isolated
totals say 7 or 8 inches but i would expect most max amounts to be around 6" or so on avg in that region.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Well I have to go with msstateguy83!! He seems to think I will get 3inches+!! I hope he is right.....

[Dallasaggie01]

Exactly. The low in north Dallas where I am is supposed to be 28 tonight. With the cloud cover and snow moving into the western part of the metroplex by late morning, I can't imagine we'd get too much heating between 6am and noon tomorrow. Once the snow starts I thought you had additional cooling throughout.

I'm not understanding the news forecasts compared to what I'm reading here. Are they assuming less moisture overall? The NWS grids show snow from 1pm through 4am Wed. That's 14 hours, are these graphic forecasts not usually accurate?

[Ntxw]

Exactly. The low in north Dallas where I am is supposed to be 28 tonight. With the cloud cover and snow moving into the western part of the metroplex by late morning, I can't imagine we'd get too much heating between 6am and noon tomorrow. Once the snow starts I thought you had additional cooling throughout.

I'm not understanding the news forecasts compared to what I'm reading here. Are they assuming less moisture overall? The NWS grids show snow from 1pm through 4am Wed. That's 14 hours, are these graphic forecasts not usually accurate?

Emphasizing this quote

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Here in the forums we go on raw judgment of what the poster sees and his\her opinions. Often times we are much more aggressive than professional forecasters as theirs is more at stake. In general newcasters and the nws are much more conservative with their products.

[Dallasaggie01]

I guess what I'm asking is if the NWS graphical forecast shows 12+ hours of snow, there should be a minimal amount of moisture in the system, I would assume. Is this where the melting aspect comes in to play? I'm just trying to get a handle on how predictions on total amounts on the ground take melting into account.

[iorange55]

I guess what I'm asking is if the NWS graphical forecast shows 12+ hours of snow, there should be a minimal amount of moisture in the system, I would assume. Is this where the melting aspect comes in to play? I'm just trying to get a handle on how predictions on total amounts on the ground take melting into account.

What I got from reading, and hearing what they were saying is they think the temp will be above freezing for the first half of it, and the snow will melt.



I disagree with that though.

[Ntxw]

I guess what I'm asking is if the NWS graphical forecast shows 12+ hours of snow, there should be a minimal amount of moisture in the system, I would assume. Is this where the melting aspect comes in to play? I'm just trying to get a handle on how predictions on total amounts on the ground take melting into account.

The forecast region for the nws can be very large. Probably won't snow all 12+ hours for any given area but rather the time period in which the storm should start and end for the entire region. They are assuming melting should occur quite a bit which I too believe on heavily traveled roads will be the case to some point. Grassy surfaces and less traveled roads (as well as bridges and overpasses) have a tendency to accumulate sooner than they predict especially with the cold spell we have been in.

[txtiff]

I thought they were saying it was going to melt because it will snow first then change over to rain. Is that correct??

[iorange55]

I thought they were saying it was going to melt because it will snow first then change over to rain. Is that correct??

I don't believe it's supposed to change over to rain? If anything I think they said it'll start as rain first.

[Ntxw]

I thought they were saying it was going to melt because it will snow first then change over to rain. Is that correct??

From the metroplex north and west it will probably be all snow as the soundings show freezing throughout the column.

[txtiff]

So how much do you think we will get? I notice you are in Dallas. I am about 20 miles east of the metroplex in kaufman.