Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL DATA COMING IN HAS SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LATER START
TO THE PRECIPITATION. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
METROPLEX... WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MOST
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...INCLUDING
LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM 9 AM TUESDAY UNTIL
9 AM WEDNESDAY.

No mention of the heavier precip it's indicating.

[Ntxw]

Boy oh boy

[LaBreeze]

I headed in to NW Houston on Tuesday evening - just wondering. Looks like it should be alright for me, maybe just some cold rain on the drive in?

Nothing to indicate any road problems from ice or snow down there. Rain can be tricky though should still use caution.

Will do. Thanks!

[msstateguy83]

are we, the nws @ fws reading the same 00z nam run??? lol just wondering....

[CaptinCrunch]

No mention of the heavier precip it's indicating.

and they wont till morning shift starts and new model data is looked at. Still think system will be a bigger suprise than what NWS is forecasting. Over night lows have been below freezing since Christmas and with temp at or just below freezing I dont understand why they are not metioning travel issues. As many have stated already there are still places with snow still on the ground, so snow sticking will become an issue. Plus if it comes in later in the evening and most falls over night, then Wednesday morning will be a freaking mess as lows are well below freezing tuesday night, think upper 20's is forecasted.

[CaptinCrunch]

are we, the nws @ fws reading the same 00z nam run??? lol just wondering....

the night shift sure isn't....lmao

either NAM is WAY off or NWS peeps just dont believe it...lol

My money is on the NAM being pretty dang close...

[Ntxw]

I've always thought they were nam huggers lol why change all of a sudden =P

[txtiff]

Does anyone think "they" the NWS will issue a winter storm warning? If so where? When? If what mastaguy83 is saying is at all true then wouldn't they have to issue that warning?

[katheria]

are we, the nws @ fws reading the same 00z nam run??? lol just wondering....

maybe they are color blind today


new here, well not really been lurking a long time......

be interesting to see what news stations say

[LaBreeze]

Welcome Katheria!

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/

Cool site for sat loops and images

[iorange55]

I really don't get it both the NAM 00z and the GFS 00z are showing a broader, and stronger amount of precip. it's odd to me that they didn't even mention it.



Plus like everyone else says even if the temp is 32 or just above freezing I'd imagine it'd probably even still stick then. We only had an inch of snow here, and it just now all melted here today. And that was back on Christmas eve.



Doesn't make any sense.

[katheria]

Welcome Katheria!

Thanks Labreeze

[Ntxw]

We'll have to wait and see. As long as we all have snow to watch and have fun in, doesn't matter what advisories come out though if it really is worse than they have led to believe, motorists will know where to point fingers.

[srainhoutx]

One word...Virga. 850mb level is very dry. I suspect this is why FWD holding back. We shall see.

[iorange55]

One word...Virga. 850mb level is very dry. I suspect this is why FWD holding back. We shall see.

And I'd understand that if they mention it, but they seem to be only saying an inch because they think it won't stick which just doesn't make a lot of sense.

[katheria]

either me ears are not hearing right or something

Channel 8 weather guy, snow might not even make it as snow but as rain,
no road problems expected....

[TrekkerCC]

I really don't get it both the NAM 00z and the GFS 00z are showing a broader, and stronger amount of precip. it's odd to me that they didn't even mention it.



Plus like everyone else says even if the temp is 32 or just above freezing I'd imagine it'd probably even still stick then. We only had an inch of snow here, and it just now all melted here today. And that was back on Christmas eve.



Doesn't make any sense.

To be fair, there are some factors that are different than what happened on 12/24. For one, we won't have very cold air filtering in from the NW/N that would aid in causing our temperatures to drop. While it appears that evaporate processes will lead to a frozen column for snow, surface temperatures look to remain above freezing throughout the event. The models aren't projecting the surface to go below freezing, and if this happens then the NWS will be correct. Little or no impact will occur. I think there is a possibility of a surprise tomorrow, but this situation can also turn into a bust as well. We could easily have a cold rain if the column doesn't cool as much as projected. For me looking at the data, temperature will be a big factor tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

I really don't get it both the NAM 00z and the GFS 00z are showing a broader, and stronger amount of precip. it's odd to me that they didn't even mention it.



Plus like everyone else says even if the temp is 32 or just above freezing I'd imagine it'd probably even still stick then. We only had an inch of snow here, and it just now all melted here today. And that was back on Christmas eve.



Doesn't make any sense.

To be fair, there are some factors that are different than what happened on 12/24. For one, we won't have very cold air filtering in from the NW/N that would aid in causing our temperatures to drop. While it appears that evaporate processes will lead to a frozen column for snow, surface temperatures look to remain above freezing throughout the event. The models aren't projecting the surface to go below freezing, and if this happens then the NWS will be correct. Little or no impact will occur. I think there is a possibility of a surprise tomorrow, but this situation can also turn into a bust as well. We could easily have a cold rain if the column doesn't cool as much as projected. For me looking at the data, temperature will be a big factor tomorrow.

Actually the Christmas eve snow wasn't even supposed to happen as they again predicted temperatures too warm. This go around the cold air is already in place with another surge coming in from the north with high pressure in the northern plains funneling in.

[Ntxw]

As for tonight's 0z gfs, it's lost next week's storm but still drives very cold air south.