The atlantic lull ends with negative MJO entering the basin?

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... nthly.html

Will this factor alone be the spark to the CV season?

In comming days the lull that has been in the atlantic will end as the negative phase of the MJO (MADDEN JULIAN OCCILATION) kicks into the atlantic.For those who may not know when the favorable or negative phase comes look at the green lines at the link and the brown lines are the positive or unfavorable.Those green lines are moving from the pacific eastward into the atlantic so sooner rather than later we will see developments in the atlantic MAYBE FROM THOSE 2 SYSTEMS NEAR AFRICA?

[slosh]

Sounds like the NAO phase we are entering is not favorable while the MJO is?

Which is the more dominate climate factor on tropical development NAO or MJO?

[mf_dolphin]

That's the $64,000 dollar question! There are so many factors that impact the development of tropical cyclones. Many of these factors aren't well understood by themselves much less in the infinite combinations that are possible. I guess that's why forecasting is a blend of art and science!

[southerngale]

And not an easy job by any means!

[cycloneye]

Agree that it is very difficult to forecast because many variables may come and spoil the favorable factors and viseversa.

[Stormsfury]

All factors are important. The negative MJO phase or a wet phase, though, gives waves a more ample chance with the necessary moisture needed to sustain convection. Other factors also play an important role as well.

This is why out of the 100 or so waves observed a year, on average, only 10 of those develop into TC's in the North Atlantic Basin.

SF