Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
State readying for forecast winter storm
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December 28, 2009 6:38 PM
Posted by: Nicole Murray
AUSTIN (AP) - Gov. Rick Perry has directed state personnel and vehicles to be on standby as a severe winter storm threatens parts of Texas.
Perry says the resources he activated Monday will help motorists and residents in the next few days.
The National Weather Service is predicting a severe winter storm to stretch from El Paso to the Dallas-Fort Worth area starting Monday night. North, West and East Texas, along with the South Plains, will be under a winter weather advisory starting Tuesday.
Forecasters expect snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches.
Local law enforcement, the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Texas Department of Transportation and the Texas Military Forces will help motorists.
DPS Disaster Districts in Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock and Wichita Falls also are ready to help Texans.
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December 28, 2009 6:38 PM
Posted by: Nicole Murray
AUSTIN (AP) - Gov. Rick Perry has directed state personnel and vehicles to be on standby as a severe winter storm threatens parts of Texas.
Perry says the resources he activated Monday will help motorists and residents in the next few days.
The National Weather Service is predicting a severe winter storm to stretch from El Paso to the Dallas-Fort Worth area starting Monday night. North, West and East Texas, along with the South Plains, will be under a winter weather advisory starting Tuesday.
Forecasters expect snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches.
Local law enforcement, the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Texas Department of Transportation and the Texas Military Forces will help motorists.
DPS Disaster Districts in Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock and Wichita Falls also are ready to help Texans.
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- srainhoutx
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:As for tonight's 0z gfs, it's lost next week's storm but still drives very cold air south.
That's the key. The 'finer details' such as shortwaves and over running as well as any STj activity will not be modeled well at this range. 4 runs for the GFS and 2 for the ECMWF suggest the cold will infact be here for all of TX.

Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Dec 28, 2009 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Ntxw wrote:TrekkerCC wrote:iorange55 wrote:I really don't get it both the NAM 00z and the GFS 00z are showing a broader, and stronger amount of precip. it's odd to me that they didn't even mention it.
Plus like everyone else says even if the temp is 32 or just above freezing I'd imagine it'd probably even still stick then. We only had an inch of snow here, and it just now all melted here today. And that was back on Christmas eve.
Doesn't make any sense.
To be fair, there are some factors that are different than what happened on 12/24. For one, we won't have very cold air filtering in from the NW/N that would aid in causing our temperatures to drop. While it appears that evaporate processes will lead to a frozen column for snow, surface temperatures look to remain above freezing throughout the event. The models aren't projecting the surface to go below freezing, and if this happens then the NWS will be correct. Little or no impact will occur. I think there is a possibility of a surprise tomorrow, but this situation can also turn into a bust as well. We could easily have a cold rain if the column doesn't cool as much as projected. For me looking at the data, temperature will be a big factor tomorrow.
Actually the Christmas eve snow wasn't even supposed to happen as they again predicted temperatures too warm. This go around the cold air is already in place with another surge coming in from the north with high pressure in the northern plains funneling in.
Actually for the 12/24 event, the NAM 00z and I believe GFS 00z run the night before (12/24 00z run) were showing a totally freezing columns (below freezing to the surface) on the forecast soundings. The winds were coming from the north (very strong) advecting cold air in on Christmas Eve at the surface, but the surface winds for tomorrow's event is going to be from the southwest. The atmosphere is going to cool with the incoming upper level trough, but I think this event (IMO) will be much more marginal than the conditions that occurred on 12/24. I will be very happily surprised if we have a 4"-6" snowstorm tomorrow, but I think there are some countering signals that might suggest some doubt and conservatism going into this event.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Well I guess we'll see who is right and who is wrong tomorrow. It shall be interesting as it always is here with winter events you can never say definitely till it's happening.
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- wxman22
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Ntxw wrote:As for tonight's 0z gfs, it's lost next week's storm but still drives very cold air south.
the 0z run didn't necessarily lose it..., it still shows the same setup,its just less aggressive on the moisture and places the moisture further to the south & west....
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- southerngale
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
I'm going to leave my final guess for 2-3 inches. The nam has been showing 2-3 inches for a few runs now, sometimes a little more. But usually in the 2-3 inch ballpark.
The temp right now is 35 with a predicted low of 29, so we'll see how much they rise before the precip tomorrow, and then how much they fall when it starts.
The temp right now is 35 with a predicted low of 29, so we'll see how much they rise before the precip tomorrow, and then how much they fall when it starts.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009
UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL DATA COMING IN HAS SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LATER START
TO THE PRECIPITATION. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
METROPLEX... WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MOST
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...INCLUDING
LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM 9 AM TUESDAY UNTIL
9 AM WEDNESDAY.
Temp here : at 11:06pm 34.8 dropping garland area
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009
UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL DATA COMING IN HAS SLOWED THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LATER START
TO THE PRECIPITATION. MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
METROPLEX... WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MOST
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...INCLUDING
LEAVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM 9 AM TUESDAY UNTIL
9 AM WEDNESDAY.
Temp here : at 11:06pm 34.8 dropping garland area
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
iorange55 wrote:Well I guess we'll see who is right and who is wrong tomorrow. It shall be interesting as it always is here with winter events you can never say definitely TILL IT'S HAPPENING.
OR NOT HAPPENING

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- vbhoutex
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southerngale wrote:My forecasted low by NWS is 34° and it's already 33° at 10:45 pm. Maybe that's a good sign for you guys up there. lol
(edit at 11pm: 32° now... but dry and useless. heh)
32f here at 1:28am with clear skies and plenty of time for more cooling. Question is now how much warming if any will happen before onset of precip, for our area and the N TX area. Could be interesting or could be another COLD rain for us.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Starting to show up on the intellicast radar, so far it's looking pretty impressive
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... region=sat
I'm hoping it's stronger than the models say. I'm not really looking at the models now as you can just watch it unfold now on various radars and satellites
This also doesn't look bad
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... region=sat
I'm hoping it's stronger than the models say. I'm not really looking at the models now as you can just watch it unfold now on various radars and satellites
This also doesn't look bad
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
Last edited by iorange55 on Tue Dec 29, 2009 4:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- southerngale
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Re: Re:
vbhoutex wrote:southerngale wrote:My forecasted low by NWS is 34° and it's already 33° at 10:45 pm. Maybe that's a good sign for you guys up there. lol
(edit at 11pm: 32° now... but dry and useless. heh)
32f here at 1:28am with clear skies and plenty of time for more cooling. Question is now how much warming if any will happen before onset of precip, for our area and the N TX area. Could be interesting or could be another COLD rain for us.
Unfortunately, for us, I think the precip will arrive after the temp rises, but I'd love to be wrong. The KFDM Weathernet stations (basically Weatherbug) I'm between currently have 28° and 28°. NWS did recently lower my low from 34° to 32°. I feel for them.... forecasting the weather is never easy, but uncooperative weather during the winter in SE TX... poor guys!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
DFW NWS has upped the forecast snow for Dallas from a half inch to one inch, lol. Victory is ours!
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Sure is looking more impressive than I thought it'd look by now
http://www.myfoxdfw.com/subindex/weather/texas_radar
http://www.myfoxdfw.com/subindex/weather/texas_radar
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
iorange55, are you the same poster as iorange555 on Lone Star Ball?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Interesting to note that the 0z runs from the main three medium-range models (GFS, Euro, and CMC) all agree on a major blast of Polar/Arctic air next week into Texas. This airmass appears to be colder than anything we have seen this season.
Including today's "event," the GFS shows three winter storms impacting at least a portion of the state over the 16-day period. And the Euro at 240 hours parks the polar vortex over the northern Great Lakes which would mean "Vodka cold" for Texas should it verify.
Stepping down ... stepping down.

Including today's "event," the GFS shows three winter storms impacting at least a portion of the state over the 16-day period. And the Euro at 240 hours parks the polar vortex over the northern Great Lakes which would mean "Vodka cold" for Texas should it verify.
Stepping down ... stepping down.

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Portastorm wrote:Interesting to note that the 0z runs from the main three medium-range models (GFS, Euro, and CMC) all agree on a major blast of Polar/Arctic air next week into Texas. This airmass appears to be colder than anything we have seen this season.![]()
Including today's "event," the GFS shows three winter storms impacting at least a portion of the state over the 16-day period. And the Euro at 240 hours parks the polar vortex over the northern Great Lakes which would mean "Vodka cold" for Texas should it verify.
Stepping down ... stepping down.
Portastorm, I've seen the "stepping down" term used quite frequently on this forum. Can you please tell us what that means in weather terminology? Thanks in advance.....
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
DentonGal, it means a series of progressive weather systems that over a short period of time (several weeks) lay down snowpack north of us (Texas) which helps very cold airmasses maintain their integrity instead of moderating before they impact the state ... and establishes a storm track (essentially a roadway for storm systems to travel on) over our part of the US.
Early in December, a number of atmospheric signals and analogs (years featuring similar setups) were identified by pro mets and many suggested that we would be "stepping down" into a cold and stormy winter. It would not be a dramatic (it's 70 degrees one day, snowstorm the next ... followed by a warm up to 75) change but a gradual descent into a colder and stormier pattern. And that is what we have seen in December. Today's winter storm is the third storm system to traverse the state in the month. Most locations in Texas are averaging well below normal temperature-wise for the month. Think of it like walking down into a basement instead of bouncing on a trampoline!
Early in December, a number of atmospheric signals and analogs (years featuring similar setups) were identified by pro mets and many suggested that we would be "stepping down" into a cold and stormy winter. It would not be a dramatic (it's 70 degrees one day, snowstorm the next ... followed by a warm up to 75) change but a gradual descent into a colder and stormier pattern. And that is what we have seen in December. Today's winter storm is the third storm system to traverse the state in the month. Most locations in Texas are averaging well below normal temperature-wise for the month. Think of it like walking down into a basement instead of bouncing on a trampoline!

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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
good morning everyone,
just looking at the radar we have precip almost up to i-20 near abilene already
this could be quite interesting looking ahead of schedule to me.
just looking at the radar we have precip almost up to i-20 near abilene already
this could be quite interesting looking ahead of schedule to me.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Going to take a while for any moisture to fall. A lot of virga on the radar scope this morning. The heavier echos are likely sleet NW of Austin. The column will continue to moisten up as the morning progresses. The slower solution suggested last night appears on target. It will likely be the noon to afternoon hours before the FWD area begins to see some light precip fall. Midland is the only location that light snow is falling right now besides the Big Bend areas and Southern New Mexico. San Angelo and Sanora reporting light rain.
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/da ... fc_aus.gif
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/da ... fc_aus.gif
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